Potential December 12th-13th threat

[WeatherNC]

These two images from the 12z ECMWF at 144hrs from Plymouth are intriuging, as they seem to agree somewhat with its 0z ens mean, with something forming along the trough as the primary lifts through the OH Valley. Don't know if this is a meso, or some variant of an attempted transfer east, but something to watch going forward. With 850's surging to around 10C ahead of the front, this could be the foci for a potential svr weather event.

[buckeyefan1]

Tennessee in the Midwest. I've never heard of that. Midsouth maybe. I will be in Tennessee, though, this weekend. I'm hoping for some backlash snow up in Gatlinburg.

Growing up in Ohio I always heard TN grouped into different areas(for weather). Living in SC for the past 25yrs I have heard others group TN as Midsouth, Midwest, and Mid Atlantic(not sure how they have come up with the MidAtl..lol). Similar reasoning I guess as to why some group NC in with the Mid Atlantic(for weather).

Heck....since I have lived here in SC it is a given that we are grouped together with NC, better known as "the carolinas", but as we all know the weather in SC is nothing like would be expected in NC. Nothing is worse than hearing "a big storm for the carolina's" knowing that it will be a NC storm.

Yes, let's have this discussion because I'd love to hear you make the case that TN is a Mid West state.

Do I know you? This discussion has been brought up several times over several years as to what should or should not be classified as a Southern State. Where did I state that I believed TN is a Mid West state? Or for that matter, where did I state that NC should be classified as a Mid Atlantic state? I said most people-as in most people I have heard making an argument of where these states should be located. If there is anything you would like to discuss further, feel free to PM me.

[WeatherNC]

Growing up in Ohio I always heard TN grouped into different areas(for weather). Living in SC for the past 25yrs I have heard others group TN as Midsouth, Midwest, and Mid Atlantic(not sure how they have come up with the MidAtl..lol). Similar reasoning I guess as to why some group NC in with the Mid Atlantic(for weather).

Heck....since I have lived here in SC it is a given that we are grouped together with NC, better known as "the carolinas", but as we all know the weather in SC is nothing like would be expected in NC. Nothing is worse than hearing "a big storm for the carolina's" knowing that it will be a NC storm.

Do I know you? This discussion has been brought up several times over several years as to what should or should not be classified as a Southern State. Where did I state that I believed TN is a Mid West state? Or for that matter, where did I state that NC should be classified as a Mid Atlantic state? I said most people-as in most people I have heard making an argument of where these states should be located. If there is anything you would like to discuss further, feel free to PM me.

Lets just put this issue to bed, please, as it has been discussed over and over, and can continue in OT, where it has many times over the years. These are the regional boundaries the NWS uses, I could care less though as NC is in the SE forum, always has, always will.

source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html

[DixieBlizzard]

I guess I'm in the northwest southeast or the southwest southern Apps.

[WeatherNC]

I guess I'm in the northwest southeast or the southeast southern Apps.

ambiguation ftw, which is always the case when discussing this topic and why it continues to be brought up

12z GFS ens members at 144, a little more spread then the past couple runs...

Throwing "all in" on n001 at 180hrs here in Eastern NC

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Have to agree also, there are just too many negatives right now to suggest otherwise. Don't know how much stock we can put into the MJO's influence at this point, as it is just emerging from the circle of death and forecasted to be pretty diffuse for the next week or so. This is still around day 7 though, GFS is on the fast side of the envelope, and trending quicker compared to the past several runs. I would put more stock in a Euro solution at this range compared to the global, given verification stats on avg at the 5-7 day range. Parcels will not be onshore for another 4-5 days, and a lot could change between then, but the synoptic indicators we look for in winter storms, are mostly absent, and that is very difficult to overcome at this range.

Well, after looking at that model verification chart...... it would indicate that the models aren't doing so hot as of late. Who knows, maybe they are not showing us a true picture of the large scale features either. After seeing this, we might have a totally different set-up at the onset time with this storm. Looks like we are going to have to watch the upstrem indicators before completely writing this one off.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I will not go into the TN and KY discussion, as that is totally up to ones preference. But when someone makes a blanket statement about the SE in general they need to take into account that alot of people that live in KY, LA, AR consider themselves the SE. As this forum is the "Southeastern States" subforum not the "Carolinas and Georiga" subforum.

We may not have many posters from these areas but you can bet people are reading from those locations.

[kanc2001]

lets go n001, lets go n001

[eyewall]

ambiguation ftw, which is always the case when discussing this topic and why it continues to be brought up

12z GFS ens members at 144, a little more spread then the past couple runs...

Throwing "all in" on n001 at 180hrs here in Eastern NC

I'll take n001 to block.

[Stovepipe]

Kentucky is considered a Mid West state by most people, and Tenn can fall under both the SE and the Mid West just like NC can fall under the Mid Atlantic. Let's not start this discussion again on what state should be where...

Do I know you? This discussion has been brought up several times over several years as to what should or should not be classified as a Southern State. Where did I state that I believed TN is a Mid West state? Or for that matter, where did I state that NC should be classified as a Mid Atlantic state? I said most people-as in most people I have heard making an argument of where these states should be located. If there is anything you would like to discuss further, feel free to PM me.

You stated TN can fall under the Mid West. Since I've never once heard it classified that way in my 35 years, I was interested in hearing you explain your statement in more detail.

[buckeyefan1]

I will not go into the TN and KY discussion, as that is totally up to ones preference. But when someone makes a blanket statement about the SE in general they need to take into account that alot of people that live in KY, LA, AR consider themselves the SE. As this forum is the "Southeastern States" subforum not the "Carolinas and Georiga" subforum.

We may not have many posters from these areas but you can bet people are reading from those locations.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2267-dec-11-13-mwlakesov-snow-event/page__view__findpost__p__68470

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=101468100889412705424.0004638c314748aa9fba0&ll=41.376809,-83.430176&spn=13.282338,28.564453&z=6

[eyewall]

From RAH:

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS

ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... AND WITH THE OVERALL PREFERENCE

FOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS... CONFIDENCE IS

INCREASING (BUT STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH) THAT A STRONG AND DEEPENING

STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH

BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT

AND MONDAY. A PORTION OF THE CURRENT GULF OF ALASKA VORTEX WILL

CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND DIG INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH

SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A NORTHERN CANADA VORTEX FEEDS COLD AIR AND

ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT

INTO MONDAY... CLOSING OFF A DEEP COLD LOW OVER OH/PA/MD/NY BY

MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE OP ECMWF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL

PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A COLD

RAIN... POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET OR WET SNOW AT ONSET

SATURDAY EVENING IN THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THE STRONG SE TO S

FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM SUPPORT PRECIP STAYING AS ALL RAIN

THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN... A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT NOTED ON

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHARP END TO THE PRECIP BY

MIDDAY OR SO SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT... ALTHOUGH

OF COURSE AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET TOO PRECISE WITH

TIMING. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WITH A SMALL CHANCE

OF RAIN OR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY

CHILLY (GFS/ECMWF SHOW THICKNESSES IN THE 1250S/1260S THROUGH THE

DAY) AND WINDY DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. -GIH-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

I can sum this up in one word: FAIL!

[Cold Rain]

Throwing "all in" on n001 at 180hrs here in Eastern NC

I support this post! That would be a wind-driven, major snowstorm.

[WeatherNC]

From RAH:

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS

ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... AND WITH THE OVERALL PREFERENCE

FOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS... CONFIDENCE IS

INCREASING (BUT STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH) THAT A STRONG AND DEEPENING

STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH

BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT

AND MONDAY. A PORTION OF THE CURRENT GULF OF ALASKA VORTEX WILL

CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND DIG INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH

SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A NORTHERN CANADA VORTEX FEEDS COLD AIR AND

ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT

INTO MONDAY... CLOSING OFF A DEEP COLD LOW OVER OH/PA/MD/NY BY

MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE OP ECMWF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL

PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A COLD

RAIN... POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET OR WET SNOW AT ONSET

SATURDAY EVENING IN THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THE STRONG SE TO S

FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM SUPPORT PRECIP STAYING AS ALL RAIN

THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN... A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT NOTED ON

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHARP END TO THE PRECIP BY

MIDDAY OR SO SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT... ALTHOUGH

OF COURSE AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET TOO PRECISE WITH

TIMING. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WITH A SMALL CHANCE

OF RAIN OR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY

CHILLY (GFS/ECMWF SHOW THICKNESSES IN THE 1250S/1260S THROUGH THE

DAY) AND WINDY DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. -GIH-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

I can sum this up in one word: FAIL!

That is an interesting read eyewall, at this stage... Still a lot can and will change, but is that enough to take the "fail" off the center of the table, probably to almost certainly not in winter wx regards. They did however reference the op EC heavily, and a "dryslot," but when looking at the 12z run, you can see 2 dryslots... The main slot working through the TN Valley associated with the primary, and a second beginning to wedge into eastern NC associated with what may be a secondary development, makes you wonder if they have seen the 12z EC ens, or are just shoving all in on the op and all available info leading up to it?

[eyewall]

That is an interesting read eyewall, at this stage... Still a lot can and will change, but is that enough to take the "fail" off the center of the table, probably to almost certainly not in winter wx regards. They did however reference the op EC heavily, and a "dryslot," but when looking at the 12z run, you can see 2 dryslots... The main slot working through the TN Valley associated with the primary, and a second beginning to wedge into eastern NC associated with what may be a secondary development, makes you wonder if they have seen the 12z EC ens, or are just shoving all in on the op and all available info leading up to it?

If I had to venture a guess I would say this disco is heavily leaning on the operational run without much consideration of ens.

[strongwxnc]

We need to update the SE map.

I cannot update it. Who created the map? Burger?

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=106212743382054003137.00047c38d8773d2cb5db1&t=h&z=5

http://www.americanw...dpost__p__68470

http://maps.google.c...8,28.564453&z=6

[Cyclonicjunkie]

http://www.americanw...dpost__p__68470

http://maps.google.c...8,28.564453&z=6

:gun_bandana:

[buckeyefan1]

We need to update the SE map.

I cannot update it. Who created the map? Burger?

http://maps.google.c...2cb5db1&t=h&z=5

Yes, Burger made the SE map It's linked in my siggy

[WeatherNC]

The 12z EC ens mean at 144hrs, have not, and will not be previ to the members, but enough agreement and strong support for the op solution on potential for some re-development in the upstate. This is the Atlantic view, for the NA & NH views see here: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html

[burgertime]

We need to update the SE map.

I cannot update it. Who created the map? Burger?

http://maps.google.c...2cb5db1&t=h&z=5

Just updated the name to reflect Americanwx. Also made a crappy border.

By the way I like what the GFS ens is selling on that frame that WeatherNC posted. We better watch out though Brick might get excited .

[Gastonwxman]

Just updated the name to reflect Americanwx. Also made a crappy border.

By the way I like what the GFS ens is selling on that frame that WeatherNC posted. We better watch out though Brick might get excited .

Knowing Brick, I think he'll have a heart attack seeing that.

[burgertime]

Folks from Tn. will love the 18z GFS it gives pretty much the whole state snow for a solid day.

[Solak]

Trying to figure this part of my local forecast out...

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[weatherheels]

Folks from Tn. will love the 18z GFS it gives pretty much the whole state snow for a solid day.

Looks like a good ol GLC. I can absolutely not wait to feel the cold air that will usher in after this event.

[lilj4425]

Trying to figure this part of my local forecast out...

Is FFC/Peachtree doing your forecast?

[eyewall]

Apparently there is going to be a radio show about the POS event tonight.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Apparently there is going to be a radio show about the POS event tonight.

Its a nice storm

[Amos83]

I was suprised to see the radio show announcement..... even if there is a storm coming for those folks I'd think they would wait another day or two to make sure they don't jinx it. Oh well it's there gamble I guess.

Bring on the epic cold!

[strongwxnc]

As why im a fan of regional threads!

Apparently there is going to be a radio show about the POS event tonight.

[WXinCanton]

I think this system is going to have some surprises. No blizzard or anything but some SE folks will be pleased when all is said and done. we shall see