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Potential December 12th-13th threat

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

not sure I follow, that's been forecasted for a couple of days now. 2 inches seems likely IMO. .

I took a look at the snow totals for the 0z GFS. Last weekend the GFS backed-off quickly when the event happened for totals. I'm encouraged to see those totals still present. The NAM has me nervous. It has very little accumulation w/ it all for KTRI.

Two inches in Kingsport is never a given w/ these systems. Last weekend, we had a heavy dusting. Drove to Bristol for a meeting, and they had around one inch. I lived in Johnson City for five years when I first got married. I would have five inches on my back deck(slight elevation enhancement where my house was), and drive to Kingsport and see nothing. I could look in my rearview mirror at Rock Springs and see snow, and look forward to John B. Dennis and see brown.

(edit: I typed this before reading Foothills' post.)

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

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I took a look at the snow totals for the 0z GFS. Last weekend the GFS backed-off quickly when the event happened for totals. I'm encouraged to see those totals still present. The NAM has me nervous. It has very little accumulation w/ it all for KTRI.

Two inches in Kingsport is never a given w/ these systems. Last weekend, we had a heavy dusting. Drove to Bristol for a meeting, and they had around one inch. I lived in Johnson City for five years when I first got married. I would have five inches on my back deck(slight elevation enhancement where my house was), and drive to Kingsport and see nothing. I could look in my rearview mirror at Rock Springs and see snow, and look forward to John B. Dennis and see brown.

(edit: I typed this before reading Foothills' post.)

Nothing wrong with being gunshy here in the tricities. The way we are set in between these mountains causes some crazy stuff. I have witnessed calls for 1-2 inches of snow and get 30'' and I have witnessed NUMEROUS winter storm warnings for amounts up to 16-20 inches within 24 hours of the storm and get absolutely nothing. GOOD LUCK man, hope we score a nice one.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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I have witnessed calls for 1-2 inches of snow and get 30'' and I have witnessed NUMEROUS winter storm warnings for amounts up to 16-20 inches within 24 hours of the storm and get absolutely nothing.

thats amazing. Anyway, was just looking past the snow and the coldest morning for you guys will be Wednesday morning I think. The GFS has a 1024 high over TRI or southeast Ky, so with calm winds and snowcover, you may reach some single digits. I almost did here with no snow around and a paltry 850 feet elevation , on 2 nights last week.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Nothing wrong with being gunshy here in the tricities. The way we are set in between these mountains causes some crazy stuff. I have witnessed calls for 1-2 inches of snow and get 30'' and I have witnessed NUMEROUS winter storm warnings for amounts up to 16-20 inches within 24 hours of the storm and get absolutely nothing. GOOD LUCK man, hope we score a nice one.

In the late 90's or maybe even early 2000s, there was a storm that dumped like 15+ inches in Johnson City. In Kingsport, we had a couple of inches. There was a guy from JC who said he couldn't get into work because of trees down in his yard. No one believed him until the news came on that afternoon showing what had happened. I think the year before that one, Kingsport had a storm in much the same way. I don't have a source to get those numbers. Do you remember those events? I don't think KTRI would show snowfall numbers that big, because the airport was on the outside looking in on both events if I remember. Anyway, good luck to you as well. Something to look forward to...The mountains are going to have a ton of snow on top after this one.

Edit/Added: Even last week, we took the kids sledding at Roan Mountain State Park. (I posted some pics on another thread.) In Elizabethton, there was still a slight dusting at 2:00 PM Sunday - maybe rooftops dusted and a few grassy areas. Hampton had around two inches. In the next ten miles on our way to Roan Mountain City(that's in the valley for those who don't know the area - not the mountain top), we drove into 6-7 inches of snow. Elevation helped. But still...it was amazing to see the difference. It was like driving into another world. That is not terribly uncommon - just interesting to view.

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Math/Met

Math/Met

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I also live in an area of northeast TN that usually doesn’t do as well as others in snow events. Greeneville is known to miss out on some of the heavier snows in winter storms. However, I think we actually do better in upslope events than Kingsport/Tri-Cities airport area. On several occasions last winter, Greeneville and Jonesborough would have snow accumulations from the upslope events but there would be very little snow by the time I got to the airport. Parts of Greeneville ended up with around 2 inches earlier this week, and there was a dusting the day before. Hopefully we can all get a little more out of this event, it could be fairly impressive.

On a side note, there is currently some downsloping effect near the mountains. The wind tower at Camp Creek recorded a wind gust of 69mph. That suggests a fairly strong southerly low level jet over the area (mountain waves).

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phil882

phil882

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no room to spare. If it works out then its a nice, fluffy wet snow for You. I hope all of Asheville gets hit . They deserve it after missing out (other than last year) for so many years. Whats your current obs?

I'm at 38.3 degrees. My dewpoint is still 17. It's weird to see KAVL stoping off so quickly when most locations in the french broad valley are staying steady in the upper 30's. We'll see.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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I also live in an area of northeast TN that usually doesn’t do as well as others in snow events. Greeneville is known to miss out on some of the heavier snows in winter storms. However, I think we actually do better in upslope events than Kingsport/Tri-Cities airport area. On several occasions last winter, Greeneville and Jonesborough would have snow accumulations from the upslope events but there would be very little snow by the time I got to the airport. Parts of Greeneville ended up with around 2 inches earlier this week, and there was a dusting the day before. Hopefully we can all get a little more out of this event, it could be fairly impressive.

On a side note, there is currently some downsloping effect near the mountains. The wind tower at Camp Creek recorded a wind gust of 69mph. That suggests a fairly strong southerly low level jet over the area (mountain waves).

Wow! Mountain waves are wild events. One event took a good chunk of shingles off my place of work last year and dumped them in the parking lot. Also, interesting about Crossville changing over. The NWS was all over that as the "warning bullseye" is right on the central and northern Cumberland Plateau.

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phil882

phil882

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It looks like its about over you. Enjoy your foot.

Its strange because if you look at the latest SPC analysis (which i think is taken from the RUC) there seems to be a warm pocket right over the NC/TN border stretching into eastern TN, while the French Broad river valley is in a relative cold spot. I'm sure it will all change once the precipitation moves in, but its interesting to see the effect of south-easterlies causing a pool of cold air on the southeast facing slopes of the mountains through adiabatic lift.

Going back earlier to the NAM BUFKIT profile I showed earlier. I think it might be overdone because its spitting out .5"+ of precip over Asheville, and this will be a case where we have to rely on heavy precipitation rates in order to get our isothermal profile. The NAM BUFKIT shows us switching back to rain as the precip starts to die down near the end of the band. If the precip is not as heavy as forecast, we might just primarily end up with sleet/freezing rain or rain.

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

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41.4 in Erwin, with only scattered rain showers at the moment. Temperature has been steady since sundown. I returned from Asheville around 9:30 this evening; mountains above 3000 ft (along I-26) were generally 35-37 degrees; valleys were between 39-42 degrees. I'm waiting for the first real burst of precipitation to move through to get a feel for whether or not this warm air will slowly be pushed out. I have certainly seen stranger occurrences. Either way, Northeast Tennessee appears to be in for quite a hit once the air cools.

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Thunderhead Hawkins

Thunderhead Hawkins

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We may have some areas of river enhanced snow around here from Pickwick and Wheeler lakes. Same concept as up north just on a much smaller scale...

INTERESTING NOTE: THE LOCAL 4KM WRF PRODUCES AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOW

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TENN RIVER LAKES. THE AIR-WATER LAPSE RATE

IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT...AND FETCHES WILL RANGE CLOSE TO THE 300-

320 DEGREE RANGE NEEDED TO ALIGN WITH WHEELER AND PICKWICK LAKES.

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