Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,514
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    EWR757
    Newest Member
    EWR757
    Joined

Sunday/Monday Coastal (Aug 14/15)


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 595
  • Created
  • Last Reply

As was said before, great to see this kind of storm development in mid August. This kind of track will likely repeat this fall. I like the looks of the seasonal trend setting up.

dunno...there's so little correlation month to month right now you can't make a seasonal trend...if this were October you'd have a much better shot at picking out a trend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

930 AM UPDATE...

BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS GETTING CONCERNED

THAT HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE FARTHER EAST THAN OUR CURRENT

FLOOD WATCH. HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN CT/RI AND INTO WORCESTER

COUNTY HAS DUMPED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 6 AM WITH LOCALLY UP TO

4 INCHES AT HOPE VALLEY RI IN WASHINGTON COUNTY AS OF 910 AM!

TROPICAL PWAT PLUME OF +2 INCHES OVER RI AND SE MA EXTENDING SOUTH

OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PIVOT NE TODAY.

IN ADDITION NOTICING A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT FROM EASTERN CT/RI

INTO EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH. MODEST INFLOW UP AND OVER THIS

BOUNDARY WITH BUZM3 AND IOSN3 SHOWING ESE WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG

WITH KBOX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 30 KT OF SE INFLOW AT 2-3

KFT. GIVEN ITS AUGUST THIS BOUNDARY IS PROBABLY SHALLOW BUT

NEVERTHELESS IS ENHANCING ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE

TOPOGRAPHY/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHERMORE WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY SHOWING WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WITH TROPICAL CONNECTION

JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND FLOWING INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COOLING

CLOUD TOPS. ALL INDICATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING.

OF THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL GUIDANE THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE

MATCHING UP BEST WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS...FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST

RAIN OVER EASTERN CT/RI/CENTRAL-EASTERN MA AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH

THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. WITH ALL THIS SAID WE MAY SHIFT FLOOD

WATCHES FARTHER EAST TO COVER RI/CENTRAL-EASTERN MA INTO HILLSBORO

CNTY NH. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z NAM AND SEE IF ITS QPF MATCHES OUR

CURRENT THINKING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Speaking of Westerly...

69/69 - Just passed the 2 inch mark since about 4am... (2.01 to be exact). Had some offshore thunder earlier this am - around 6 or 7 but otherwise, it's been a steady moderate rain all morning with occasional torrential downpours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

930 AM UPDATE...

BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS GETTING CONCERNED

THAT HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE FARTHER EAST THAN OUR CURRENT

FLOOD WATCH. HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN CT/RI AND INTO WORCESTER

COUNTY HAS DUMPED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 6 AM WITH LOCALLY UP TO

4 INCHES AT HOPE VALLEY RI IN WASHINGTON COUNTY AS OF 910 AM!

TROPICAL PWAT PLUME OF +2 INCHES OVER RI AND SE MA EXTENDING SOUTH

OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PIVOT NE TODAY.

IN ADDITION NOTICING A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT FROM EASTERN CT/RI

INTO EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH. MODEST INFLOW UP AND OVER THIS

BOUNDARY WITH BUZM3 AND IOSN3 SHOWING ESE WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG

WITH KBOX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 30 KT OF SE INFLOW AT 2-3

KFT. GIVEN ITS AUGUST THIS BOUNDARY IS PROBABLY SHALLOW BUT

NEVERTHELESS IS ENHANCING ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE

TOPOGRAPHY/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHERMORE WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY SHOWING WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WITH TROPICAL CONNECTION

JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND FLOWING INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COOLING

CLOUD TOPS. ALL INDICATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING.

OF THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL GUIDANE THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE

MATCHING UP BEST WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS...FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST

RAIN OVER EASTERN CT/RI/CENTRAL-EASTERN MA AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH

THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. WITH ALL THIS SAID WE MAY SHIFT FLOOD

WATCHES FARTHER EAST TO COVER RI/CENTRAL-EASTERN MA INTO HILLSBORO

CNTY NH. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z NAM AND SEE IF ITS QPF MATCHES OUR

CURRENT THINKING.

If you look at OKX radar, you can see what's up. The southern end of the line of heavy rain is moving ne very slowly, but the negative tilting H5 trough is trying to throw elements west into ern CT. I think that area from IJD-ORH on south is gonna get hit really hard. We may see this axis move east a bit, but I think ern mass gets hit with more of the developing psuedo comma head to the south of us. Basically, what we may see is a N-S elongated band of heavy rain over the areas just mentioned...and then perhaps a more w-e area of very heavy rain pivoting up from south of MVY, later on in the aftn. Just something I can envision anyways.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you look at OKX radar, you can see what's up. The southern end of the line of heavy rain is moving ne very slowly, but the negative tilting H5 trough is trying to throw elements west into ern CT. I think that area from IJD-ORH on south is gonna get hit really hard. We may see this axis move east a bit, but I think ern mass gets hit with more of the developing psuedo comma head to the south of us. Basically, what we may see is a N-S elongated band of heavy rain over the areas just mentioned...and then perhaps a more w-e area of very heavy rain pivoting up from south of MVY, later on in the aftn. Just something I can envision anyways.

This is going to be really interesting to watch.. I'm thinking we see 4+ totals EASY in those areas mentioned above from BOX..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Btw the flooding last night in Milford was incredible. 2.5" in an hour flooded dozens of roads, water rescues, and dozens of buildings.

So much for my golf game in CT yesterday morning. I thought the showers were supposed to hold off until noon. Woke up in Old Lyme to downpours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

John Lackey. The Mana mana comes from a schtick on 98.5 where they intersperse sound bites from him with the old Sesame Street song

What?? That's Lackey?? Never in a million years would I have thought that..in that pic next to Sloth.

LOL, I thought his face looked like him, but the hair threw me off. LOL, what a goon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...