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Mid July SNE Torch en route!


HoarfrostHubb

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Fwiw, the boys/girls down at NCEP aren't too concerned:

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS OFFER ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES WITH THE

AVAILABILITY OF THE NEWER 00Z ECMWF MEAN. LATEST BLEND IS BASED ON

00Z ECMWF/AND ENS MEANS OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. LITTLE

DIFFERENCE FROM PRIOR PRELIM PROGS. STABLE PATTERN AND GOOD MODEL

AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FINAL PROGS

UNNECESSARY.

MEAN MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE

WEST COAST WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE PERISTENT MID LEVEL HIGH

OVER THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO BE CENTERED OVER THE APPLACHNS LATER

NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH VERY HIGH HEAT

INDICIES WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE NATION FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE

APPLCHNS BY MONDAY AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD RETURNING TO COVER

NEARLY ALL CONUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM

MID NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. EXPANSION OF H850 TEMP

VALUES IN EXCESS OF 21C-24C WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY

REGION AND SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC

SEABOARD INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY NEW ENGLAND. CURRENT

MODEL CONSENSUS OF WARMEST MID LEVEL H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 24C

WITH THE EASTWARD EXPANSION POOLING OVER THE MID ATLC REGION FROM

SRN PA TO NERN GA GIVING THIS REGION THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR

CENTURY MARK TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

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Is the Euro typically this funky during the summer? Is it typical of all of the major models?

I am not sure what the seasonal variation is, or if there is even one, but in general the ECM is as vagarious as the GFS beyond D5 with similar verification scores. This may have changed in the last year, however.

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I am not sure what the seasonal variation is, or if there is even one, but in general the ECM is as vagarious as the GFS beyond D5 with similar verification scores. This may have changed in the last year, however.

yeah that's the biggest thing - it's a day 6 -> forecast.

all you can/should really do is look at the average of the last few runs, take them for what they are worth and then give more weight to the various ensembles packages.

that said, the 12z gfs ensembles do want to shift the ridge north and east.

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12z cmc is similar to the euro in moving a couple of fronts through next week and trying its best to keep the worst of the heat out of NE.

Looks like God answered Kevin's prayers and will protect MRG's hair from any possible torch. Thanks Kev.
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Fwiw, the boys/girls down at NCEP aren't too concerned:

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS OFFER ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES WITH THE

AVAILABILITY OF THE NEWER 00Z ECMWF MEAN. LATEST BLEND IS BASED ON

00Z ECMWF/AND ENS MEANS OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. LITTLE

DIFFERENCE FROM PRIOR PRELIM PROGS. STABLE PATTERN AND GOOD MODEL

AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FINAL PROGS

UNNECESSARY.

MEAN MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE

WEST COAST WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE PERISTENT MID LEVEL HIGH

OVER THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO BE CENTERED OVER THE APPLACHNS LATER

NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH VERY HIGH HEAT

INDICIES WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE NATION FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE

APPLCHNS BY MONDAY AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD RETURNING TO COVER

NEARLY ALL CONUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM

MID NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. EXPANSION OF H850 TEMP

VALUES IN EXCESS OF 21C-24C WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY

REGION AND SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC

SEABOARD INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY NEW ENGLAND. CURRENT

MODEL CONSENSUS OF WARMEST MID LEVEL H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 24C

WITH THE EASTWARD EXPANSION POOLING OVER THE MID ATLC REGION FROM

SRN PA TO NERN GA GIVING THIS REGION THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR

CENTURY MARK TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

even they say "possibly new england" so it's not a forgone conclusion it gets here unabated. I think the forecast is much less tricky further south into the mid-Altantic.

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Euro ensembles are kind of unsure right now too. They have us on the edge of the heat...given the time frame (beyond day 7), we'll just have to see how it evolves as we get closer. Major torch though for BWI down at the conference.

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Euro ensembles are kind of unsure right now too. They have us on the edge of the heat...given the time frame (beyond day 7), we'll just have to see how it evolves as we get closer. Major torch though for BWI down at the conference.

AMOUT, model errors increasing as typhoon recurves, expect some heat for a couple of days then troughiness returns while we absolutely bake in Bally, probably will miss a good severe outbreak again.

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AMOUT, model errors increasing as typhoon recurves, expect some heat for a couple of days then troughiness returns while we absolutely bake in Bally, probably will miss a good severe outbreak again.

I wonder how well the models take in the affects of that, seeing as it appears to be sorta theoretical

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Euro ensembles are kind of unsure right now too. They have us on the edge of the heat...given the time frame (beyond day 7), we'll just have to see how it evolves as we get closer. Major torch though for BWI down at the conference.

yeah they look like it would get hot after day 10. LOL.

they are still very warm but not obscene heat.

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even they say "possibly new england" so it's not a forgone conclusion it gets here unabated. I think the forecast is much less tricky further south into the mid-Altantic.

Oh agree absolutely... Even I said I was just over 50/50 myself - this trough action in the Maritimes is a fickle beast. Seems to be having an affect locally regardless of the NAO, too.

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AMOUT, model errors increasing as typhoon recurves, expect some heat for a couple of days then troughiness returns while we absolutely bake in Bally, probably will miss a good severe outbreak again.

Dude, you're just not going to listen to me are you? :lol:

it's cool. But I never said before that it was impossible, I said it is less likely. Also, that issue in June may or may not have been caused by that... The NAO was plagued by negative values long before that typhoon recurved - I think that idea is overplayed particularly in the summer and I explained the conceptual meteorological reasoning.

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Dude, you're just not going to listen to me are you? :lol:

it's cool. But I never said before that it was impossible, I said it is less likely. Also, that issue in June may or may not have been caused by that... The NAO was plagued by negative values long before that typhoon recurved - I think that idea is overplayed particularly in the summer and I explained the conceptual meteorological reasoning.

Not that I am not listening rather that I have read multiple papers that are contrary to your thoughts. There is a real effect on modeling and a real effect downstream, of course conceptually much more dramatic inducing high heat into a polar region in December but the effect to perturb the flow is real.

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Ah haha, I was just checking out some of the FRH grids for like DDC and OKC and holy hades on earth! Some of those locales have 592dm thickness THICKNESS, ...with T1'S of +37C

...Can you imagine some freak anomaly that grabbed that and pulled it downsloping into SNE?

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Not that I am not listening rather that I have read multiple papers that are contrary to your thoughts. There is a real effect on modeling and a real effect downstream, of course conceptually much more dramatic inducing high heat into a polar region in December but the effect to perturb the flow is real.

not in the summer - TRUST ME.

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