snowNH Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 What could be the highest CAT to hit NE you think? A 3? Since the 12z CMC brought a close one today, why not start a thread... I want a CAT 4 barreling up the Coast! Tell stories of past hurricanes in NE and talk about future ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Bob sucked. At least bring Gloria here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 meh. Save the hurricanes for August 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Yep...even a two bunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 What could be the highest CAT to hit NE you think? A 3? Since the 12z CMC brought a close one today, why not start a thread... I want a CAT 4 barreling up the Coast! Tell stories of past hurricanes in NE and talk about future ones. Probably a low end cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Yep...even a two bunner. I was thinking 21 bun salute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I was thinking 21 bun salute. You are just a grumpy old man, yet that is somehow a term of endearment. Feeling better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I'm going to California during the end of August, so you can probably lock up a Cat II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 At least bring Gloria here OKSPECI KBDR 271720Z 18064G80KT 3SM -RA FG OVC008 A2859 RMK PRESRR/LOWEST PRES 850/WSHFT APRNT EYE OVHD SLPNO 5100/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 A few days ago I was tempted to start a thread, but figured I'd get banned or something! I honestly think that we may have a decent shot this year once the Cape Verde season gets into swing. No science behind it or anything, just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 What could be the highest CAT to hit NE you think? A 3? Since the 12z CMC brought a close one today, why not start a thread... I want a CAT 4 barreling up the Coast! Tell stories of past hurricanes in NE and talk about future ones. As long as it's name isn't Gloria. 1635 redux....high end cat3 borderline 4. I think that is the apex, suppose anything is possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 good luck u gaiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 meh. Save the hurricanes for August 31st. August is best, untouched SSTs....Sept/Oct waters get turned over too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 What could be the highest CAT to hit NE you think? A 3? Since the 12z CMC brought a close one today, why not start a thread... I want a CAT 4 barreling up the Coast! Tell stories of past hurricanes in NE and talk about future ones. What did the CMC do today? Just curious is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 A few days ago I was tempted to start a thread, but figured I'd get banned or something! I honestly think that we may have a decent shot this year once the Cape Verde season gets into swing. No science behind it or anything, just a bun. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 August is best, untouched SSTs....Sept/Oct waters get turned over too much. Not only that, but perhaps more importantly Sep and Oct leaves them more prone to detrimental mid latitude unfluences...such as dry air and westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Not only that, but perhaps more importantly Sep and Oct leaves them more prone to detrimental mid latitude unfluences...such as dry air and westerlies. meh....most of the infamous hurricanes in New England history have struck during September. September might actually be more favorable with respect to synoptic influences...you can get more baroclinic enhancement as the storm moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 meh....most of the infamous hurricanes in New England history have struck during September. September might actually be more favorable with respect to synoptic influences...you can get more baroclinic enhancement as the storm moves north. 1635 and Carol are two of the top five historically. Going outside of the "historic" landfalls, I think you have a point, September seems to have the most activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I remember Carol. Carol was a friend of mine. Bob...you sir are no Carol. (Nor are you Ted or Alice.....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 1635 and Carol are two of the top five historically. Going outside of the "historic" landfalls, I think you have a point, September seems to have the most activity. I think getting a favorable synoptic setup for a landfall in September is a bit easier than in August with a better chance of getting a deep/strong cut-off from the Great Lakes into the OH River Valley. That said if something like that were to occur in August with a hurricane rounding the bend in August you conceivably could get a low-end cat 4 with strong baroclinic enhancement and warm SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 1938 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Not to mention who knows what SSTs will be in 50-75 years. If you tack on 1-2c to average water temperatures... hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Not to mention who knows what SSTs will be in 50-75 years. If you tack on 1-2c to average water temperatures... hmmm.... :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I think getting a favorable synoptic setup for a landfall in September is a bit easier than in August with a better chance of getting a deep/strong cut-off from the Great Lakes into the OH River Valley. That said if something like that were to occur in August with a hurricane rounding the bend in August you conceivably could get a low-end cat 4 with strong baroclinic enhancement and warm SSTs. What is the SST difference between August and September in the general area south of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 What is the SST difference between August and September in the general area south of SNE? Depends on the year but in general it's not too substantial. I'd say you generally peak late August/early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 :weenie: lol I thought you'd like that. Who knows what a warmer earth will mean for SNE hurricanes 50 years from now. Interesting to think about. A major hurricane is something I worry about a lot for SNE. Totally unprepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 A major hurricane is something I worry about a lot for SNE. Totally unprepared. Yeah, but you could say the same thing about a lot of events with a 100 year return period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Here is the list of New England/NY hurricane landfalls from HRD/AOML Sep 1858 Cat 1 Sep 1869 Cat 3 Aug 1893 Cat 1 Sep 1896 Cat 1 Jul 1916 Cat 1 Sep 1938 Cat 3 Aug 1954 Cat 3 Sep 1954 Cat 3 Sep 1960 Cat 2 Jul 1972 Cat 1 Sep 1985 Cat 3 Aug 1991 Cat 2 4 of the 5 majors affected New England in September 7 of the 12 hurricanes affected New England in September Gloria is still listed as a major in this list, but as most know, it is likely that it wasn't a major when it made landfall in Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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