Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Still some doubt ..but overnight modles shoved the warm front farther north and have areas south of the Pike warm sectoring with dews getting well up into the 60's. MAy have issues with clouds..and how early we clear out..but the potential is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Still some doubt ..but overnight modles shoved the warm front farther north and have areas south of the Pike warm sectoring with dews getting well up into the 60's. MAy have issues with clouds..and how early we clear out..but the potential is there Sorry...just saw your other post about starting it. Anyways, yeah lots of question marks, but if we can get some sun..looks like it could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 yeah we'll see what happens. not clear cut by any means but always intriguing to see a surface warm front hung up around the region. seems to be trending more favorable with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 drove around a bit yesterday afternoon as those storms were moving in. basically a lot of lightning, some gusty winds and heavy rain. took plenty of video - did catch the gust front moving in...managed to lift/flip a small sail boat in front me. gusted *maybe* 40 to 45 mph right there on the water's edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 So far, June has been pretty good to SNE as far as tstms go. Last year was the same, and then it went to crap once the death ridge set in. Hopefully this season is different. Already had two power outages in the past 8 days due to lightning. Looks like going forward, we get into a more active pattern again, but I don't know if it's necessarily nw flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 We should have let BIrv start this thread. He is 2 for 2 for severe this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 So far, June has been pretty good to SNE as far as tstms go. Last year was the same, and then it went to crap once the death ridge set in. Hopefully this season is different. Already had two power outages in the past 8 days due to lightning. Looks like going forward, we get into a more active pattern again, but I don't know if it's necessarily nw flow. Looks like the heat ridge wants to keep coming back with periodic fronts..so looks active for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 So far, June has been pretty good to SNE as far as tstms go. Last year was the same, and then it went to crap once the death ridge set in. Hopefully this season is different. Already had two power outages in the past 8 days due to lightning. Looks like going forward, we get into a more active pattern again, but I don't know if it's necessarily nw flow. Was your TV ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Was your TV ok? It kept turning off for about 4 or 5 times, but seems to be ok. Luckily, it's the crappier one so I don't care if it's messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Great deal of shear, unfortunately our instability will be limited, not by lack of sun but b/c of awful ML lapse rates...they are going to be pretty bad. Gotta watch for dry air mixing down into the lower levels as well. Could see a low topped line though, with strong shear aloft could see some strong winds and freezing levels aren't too high so some hail could be possible as well. Definitely not going to be as exciting as what we've seen the past two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Great deal of shear, unfortunately our instability will be limited, not by lack of sun but b/c of awful ML lapse rates...they are going to be pretty bad. Gotta watch for dry air mixing down into the lower levels as well. Could see a low topped line though, with strong shear aloft could see some strong winds and freezing levels aren't too high so some hail could be possible as well. Definitely not going to be as exciting as what we've seen the past two weeks. They looked decent on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 They looked decent on the NAM. On the 0z? The 12z has them between 5.5-6 C/KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 On the 0z? The 12z has them between 5.5-6 C/KM. It looked like 6-6.5C on the 12z over srn CT, but there is also a layer of dry air aloft. That can help steepen lapse rates through evapo cooling. I'll wait until BUFKIT comes out. The wind features aloft and position of the s/w were pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 It looked like 6-6.5C on the 12z over srn CT, but there is also a layer of dry air aloft. That can help steepen lapse rates through evapo cooling. I'll wait until BUFKIT comes out. The wind features aloft and position of the s/w were pretty darn good. Oh nice...I was just looking at BDL...but there too you can see an area of dry air aloft. That certainly would be good if we could get those ML lapse rates between 6-6.5 C/KM...that would help us destabilize more than what the models are showing, especially with more heating. That dry air would also enhance the wind/hail potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Oh nice...I was just looking at BDL...but there too you can see an area of dry air aloft. That certainly would be good if we could get those ML lapse rates between 6-6.5 C/KM...that would help us destabilize more than what the models are showing, especially with more heating. That dry air would also enhance the wind/hail potential as well. It was sort of an eyeball so who knows, but at least this one could have some good forcing aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 It was sort of an eyeball so who knows, but at least this one could have some good forcing aloft. And decent shear too, I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 It was sort of an eyeball so who knows, but at least this one could have some good forcing aloft. If were able to destabilize well it could certainly be a great deal of fun with probably a really nice line...perhaps some splitting supercells as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 If were able to destabilize well it could certainly be a great deal of fun with probably a really nice line...perhaps some splitting supercells as well. Lapse rates are pretty lousy in the 700-500 layer. Better above and below that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I don't really keep track of such things, but it seems like this severe season had a slow start but is making up for lost time. Probalby must a mis-perception n my part. 70.6/60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I don't really keep track of such things, but it seems like this severe season had a slow start but is making up for lost time. Probalby must a mis-perception n my part. 70.6/60 Severe season doesn't usually start until late May here and goes through about early August for most feasible threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Severe season doesn't usually start until late May here and goes through about early August for most feasible threats. Well there you have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Well there you have it. Will told me severe here is like blizzards in DC, pretty infrequent, must be our 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Another interesting setup, where you can easily see quite a few aspects improving as we move forward in time (wrt modeling) instead of inhibitors. Overall look to the pattern has sfc pressures nosing way down the m/a though... convection would probably tend to be elevated. maybe S Coast/Cape/NYC/LI have a better shot at some stronger storms with small hail and maybe 40-50mph gusts. In the meantime I am really liking D8-12...most guidance has a W to SW mean flow, which can be more juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Will told me severe here is like blizzards in DC, pretty infrequent, must be our 2010. High end severe for sure. Stuff like 6/1/11, 5/31/98, etc...stuff that occurs every season in the plains. We get low end severe stuff every year but rarely profiles like we saw on June 1st. Kind of like how DC gets snow every year, but rarely gets 10"+ snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Will told me severe here is like blizzards in DC, pretty infrequent, must be our 2010. your severe is like our everything but heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 High end severe for sure. Stuff like 6/1/11, 5/31/98, etc...stuff that occurs every season in the plains. We get low end severe stuff every year but rarely profiles like we saw on June 1st. Kind of like how DC gets snow every year, but rarely gets 10"+ snowstorms. Is there an official way to classify high end? To be severe it has to be large hail (1"+?), damaging winds (50 knots?), and/or tornado... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 your severe is like our everything but heat You guys hit 100 yesterday, what was your highest DP during the heat wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 You guys hit 100 yesterday, what was your highest DP during the heat wave mid-70s during the morning... worst was probably 98-99 over 70 on wed.. dews were in the mid-60s when it hit 102 y-day. we need downsloping to get 100+ most of the time so we get a little bit of drying there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Is there an official way to classify high end? To be severe it has to be large hail (1"+?), damaging winds (50 knots?), and/or tornado... There isn't really an "official" criteria for high end severe wx that I'm aware of, but from what I understand its generally considered to be hail greater than 2" which is larger than golfballs, straight line winds >70mph, or any strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater I think?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Sorry...just saw your other post about starting it. Anyways, yeah lots of question marks, but if we can get some sun..looks like it could be interesting. Interesting to have the Euro and NAM be at odds... I gotta think though that with a high in that position initially NNE the AFDomain would make it tough to advect the boundary much farther N than the CT/RI borders with MA. Climate-wise that is... But then again the ECM's high is depicted weaker, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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