Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 This pattern setup could definitely very favorable for us and as long as it continues to hold we'll have our chances. I blocked on FB this morning after your act Last night, will unblock you when EML 2 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 I blocked on FB this morning after your act Last night, will unblock you when EML 2 looks good. Sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 My interest in severe here has been raised. Remember all the posters bustin your cayonnes about the lack of in SNE, they are back in their Sally closets. I'm still here busting on severe weather in SNE. This past Wednesday was like a blizzard in Virginia. They happen, but they are pretty rare. But even most of us debbie downers for severe were all interested in that one by the time we got to about 48h hours out and it still hadn't fallen apart on guidance. The EML is key. Maybe we'll get another in here. It doesn't guarantee a good outbreak but it sure ups the odds quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 It looks like the strongest shear values could lag behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Thursday looks a bit more like a ridge roller event...we are actually under anticyclonic flow at 500mb without a significant shortwave coming in from the W/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Thursday looks a bit more like a ridge roller event...we are actually under anticyclonic flow at 500mb without a significant shortwave coming in from the W/NW. it is not a significant short-wave, but more significant than a mesoscale disturbance(s)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 soundings still look pretty nice on the GFS for thursday...hopefully we can get a decent trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 soundings still look pretty nice on the GFS for thursday...hopefully we can get a decent trigger. Storm motion from the NW? Soundings are still decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Severe is certainly exciting, but give me a storm like the other night anytime with that monster CG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 This is looking subtly less impressive since yesterday ...per guidance. I like OSU' ridge roller assessment as things look for now. This may evolve into more a drecho/MCS potential. By the way...I'm sure most are aware, the GFS MOS is flirting with the season's first heat wave, if perhaps low impact variety.... Now up to and exceeding 90 on Wednesday as well as middle 90s for many sites on Thur leaves Friday's 87 close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Last year in June you were singing the tune, this year in May I didn't like what you had to say, this post shows a peek at what you will eventually speak. You'll fold and finally see what a great winter it will surely be. Please show me when I sung this tune? At least don't make things up please. I was on board for a big winter very early last year. One thing we have to honor is statistics and we have a long run of years of snow totals for Boston. The only time we achieved 4 of 5 50+ winters was 1992-93 through 1996-97. This going back 120 years. If we have a big winter this year, it happens again. Not to say it's impossible but odds are against it. Last year I was confident as soon as we hit summer that we were going to get buried. In fact, you may find a post in the summer when I predicted 80+ for Boston only to scale it down in my "official" release. Severe appears less likely this week. Or the severe severe vs garden variety. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 This is looking subtly less impressive since yesterday ...per guidance. I like OSU' ridge roller assessment as things look for now. This may evolve into more a drecho/MCS potential. By the way...I'm sure most are aware, the GFS MOS is flirting with the season's first heat wave, if perhaps low impact variety.... Now up to and exceeding 90 on Wednesday as well as middle 90s for many sites on Thur leaves Friday's 87 close. An interesting tidbit on this is that the derechos of 1995 and 1999 both came after an intense heat wave in the OH valley and Northeast. So, with temperatures likely getting into the 90s on tuesday wed and thurs, we do have one thing working for us for this event if you look at climo. 1995 Derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Please show me when I sung this tune? At least don't make things up please. I was on board for a big winter very early last year. One thing we have to honor is statistics and we have a long run of years of snow totals for Boston. The only time we achieved 4 of 5 50+ winters was 1992-93 through 1996-97. This going back 120 years. If we have a big winter this year, it happens again. Not to say it's impossible but odds are against it. Last year I was confident as soon as we hit summer that we were going to get buried. In fact, you may find a post in the summer when I predicted 80+ for Boston only to scale it down in my "official" release. Severe appears less likely this week. Or the severe severe vs garden variety. We'll see. No no Jer, you took it wrong, last year you were on board "singing the tune" La Epic, you forget out summer long party of just you Pete and I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Maybe a couple TOR's on Thursday night? Also Tuesday night looks like we could see a nice round of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 It's still questionable as to whether we can get a pre-frontal trough in time Thursday, but it's possible we could see two rounds of storms..one Thursday and the other with the actual coldfront on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 looks better for you guys then down by NYC, looks like another dry frontal passage down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 It's still questionable as to whether we can get a pre-frontal trough in time Thursday, but it's possible we could see two rounds of storms..one Thursday and the other with the actual coldfront on Friday. NAM has a pretty damn good sounding for MHT at hour 69 and 72. Lapse rate at 6.1 with the cape at 4000( even though its over blown ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 NAM has a pretty damn good sounding for MHT at hour 69 and 72. Lapse rate at 6.1 with the cape at 4000( even though its over blown ) Models are even better with lapse rates later Thursday, but again...we might not have much of a trigger. Maybe we wait until Friday, but still another day or two to work on timing. It's defintely not a clear cut situation at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Friday I heard a met on one of the Boston stations mention that Mass. was the most tornado prone state out of New England/NY Anybody have any comment about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Models are even better with lapse rates later Thursday, but again...we might not have much of a trigger. Maybe we wait until Friday, but still another day or two to work on timing. It's defintely not a clear cut situation at all. Yeah I could almost see something following the outside of the ridge and come from the Northwest to hit NE on Thursday.. then a more conventional shot from.the SE on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Friday I heard a met on one of the Boston stations mention that Mass. was the most tornado prone state out of New England/NY Anybody have any comment about that? Well, Mass averages about 3 per year. The other New England seem to average 1 or 2. New York averages 5 Here is some data for 1961-1990 http://www.erh.noaa....nadobystate.htm Were they discussing per 10000 square miles or anything? In which case Mass would be ahead of NY... 3.83 vs 1.06 (tornadoes per 10000 square miles per year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Yeah I could almost see something following the outside of the ridge and come from the Northwest to hit NE on Thursday.. then a more conventional shot from.the SE on Friday Looking at soundings from the gfs seems to back this up.. KMHT is at a lapse of 7.3 on Friday and a cape of 2000! Need a trigger now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Well, Mass averages about 3 per year. The other New England seem to average 1 or 2. New York averages 5 Here is some data for 1961-1990 http://www.erh.noaa....nadobystate.htm Were they discussing per 10000 square miles or anything? In which case Mass would be ahead of NY... 3.83 vs 1.06 (tornadoes per 10000 square miles per year) Massachusetts has a surprisingly high tornado concentration...on par with Ohio? lol I wonder if there just haven't been reported tornadoes yet per state to get a truly accurate representation of tornado concentration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 It's still questionable as to whether we can get a pre-frontal trough in time Thursday, but it's possible we could see two rounds of storms..one Thursday and the other with the actual coldfront on Friday. What about tuesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Wow NAM really amped up Wednesday through Friday! Waiting on soundings now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 What about tuesday night? I didn't really look much on Tuesday night. I suppose there is always the chance on the leading edge of warmer air pushing in, but I don't see much of anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I didn't really look much on Tuesday night. I suppose there is always the chance on the leading edge of warmer air pushing in, but I don't see much of anything right now. I had just read this....probably not a big deal MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7-8C/KM ALONG WITH 0-6KM INCREASING AS JET ENERGY SPILLS OVER THE RIDGE. FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS LIMITED BUT THEN AGAIN MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO UNLEASH THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I had just read this....probably not a big deal MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7-8C/KM ALONG WITH 0-6KM INCREASING AS JET ENERGY SPILLS OVER THE RIDGE. FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS LIMITED BUT THEN AGAIN MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO UNLEASH THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS Yeah the potential is there..perhaps even on Wednesday night as well. Usually these big theta-e pushes give someone in New England the chance of tstms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 I had just read this....probably not a big deal MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7-8C/KM ALONG WITH 0-6KM INCREASING AS JET ENERGY SPILLS OVER THE RIDGE. FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS LIMITED BUT THEN AGAIN MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO UNLEASH THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS There is a nice upside(s) to this that could be realized, I still think the potential is there, anyway. Just need a bit better s/w modeled (like previous runs).. NAM looks interesting (although it's in lala land ). .the microscale stuff will work itself out... the overall pattern has basically what you want at this time-frame, for some better than average storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I had just read this....probably not a big deal MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7-8C/KM ALONG WITH 0-6KM INCREASING AS JET ENERGY SPILLS OVER THE RIDGE. FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS LIMITED BUT THEN AGAIN MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO UNLEASH THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS I'm starting to like the Wednesday night into early Thursday morning Time frame for storms especially for CNE and NNE. Soundings look pretty great for kcon and kmht at 18z and 21z wednesday just in time for that spill over to occur..we just need that energy to spill over the ridge and Wed be in business.. I'd like to are that ridge relax a bit.. more.north and most severe stays in Maine and Canada Maine looks great for severe right now IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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