snowNH Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Some parts of SNH had a pretty good show last week. Keene, Jaffrey, Hollis? Yeah and the NH coast got hit good in the morning too.. so i guess it was just my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Quick soundings question? What does the dashed blue line to the left, solid blue line in the middle and dashed blue line to the right indicate? Just starting to learn soundings.. thanks Here are a few links you should check out. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/help/sfcoa.html http://www.theweatherprediction.com/thermo/skewt/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Thanks wiz.. thoughts on tomorrow and Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Thanks wiz.. thoughts on tomorrow and Thursday? Well tomorrow we are going to have extreme instability along with advecting EML. SBcapes should get to 4000-6000 J/KG, MLcapes around 3000-4000 J/KG, MUcape values 4500-5500 J/KG, LI values around -9C to -12C, TT in the mid to upper 50's, K index close to 30, and SI index between -5 and -7...these numbers are ridiculous for this area. Shear does increase BIG time late in the afternoon and early evening. As mentioned already were going to be pretty capped off, especially with 500mb heights rising...convective temp is also in the mid 90's. I'm not sure if the warm front will be enough alone to provide the lift needed in order to break the cap though. As for Thursday this looks very interesting...definitely potential for a significant damaging wind event across northern New England...NAM/GFS also different here but if we see any individual cells they could develop into supercells and perhaps generate the threat for an isolated tornado. I think though any line that develops will maintain and hit SNE, either during the night hours or very early AM Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 wonder if we can get a cell to pop around KTAN in the next hour. definitely some nice billowing cumulus even out here where i am but they've got the benefit of slightly warmer temps but more importantly converging sea breeze fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Dear god at some of the NAM soundings tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Dear god at some of the NAM soundings tomorrow night As impressive as 6/1? I hope we can trigger something! Can you give values for like kcon, korh, and kbdl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Dear god at some of the NAM soundings tomorrow evening I wish we had a good trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see some nasty hailers tomorrow evening coming down from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see some nasty hailers tomorrow evening coming down from the north. Hopefully it's a damaging wind event. I'd prefer that over hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Hopefully it's a damaging wind event. I'd prefer that over hail ??? why? Sort of reminds me of last years evening EML event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Hopefully it's a damaging wind event. I'd prefer that over hail I prefer the hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 GFS really mixes out dew points like crazy on Thursday. Drops dew points into the 50s Thursday afternoon and really limits the amount of CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Holy crap at 36 hour Nam sounding MHT! Wednesday night CAPE of 4200 LI of -8.2 Lapse rate of 7.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 GFS really mixes out dew points like crazy on Thursday. Drops dew points into the 50s Thursday afternoon and really limits the amount of CAPE. Yeah I could see that. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked at some good tstms tomorrow...I agree. Thursday still looks decent on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Yeah I could see that. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked at some good tstms tomorrow...I agree. Thursday still looks decent on the Euro. GFS switches the whole thing around with Wed being good so who knows. NAM/GFS are very impressive tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 GFS switches the whole thing around with Wed being good so who knows. NAM/GFS are very impressive tomorrow evening. Yeah some of those soundings are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Yeah some of those soundings are awesome. Things are so conducive down here if we can initiate storms in upstate ny things could get fun after 7 pm I think during the day is a lost cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Things are so conducive down here if we can initiate storms in upstate ny things could get fun after 7 pm I think during the day is a lost cause Sometimes you get a little s/w accompanying the warm push like what Phil was describing earlier. Sometimes an area of tstms develops right along or just behind the warm front itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Well if we can break through the cap we may not get an organized area of convection but we could get some discrete cells which could become supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Things are so conducive down here if we can initiate storms in upstate ny things could get fun after 7 pm I think during the day is a lost cause Christ man thats the last thing anyone in Springfield needs to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 9z SPC SREF has sig tor parameter of 2 over CT at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 9z SPC SREF has sig tor parameter of 2 over CT at 0z. Can you post graphics? Or link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 9z SPC SREF has sig tor parameter of 2 over CT at 0z. Why you going to VT then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Why you going to VT then? I'm going to VT Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Can you post graphics? Or link? Graphic: Link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Well if we can break through the cap we may not get an organized area of convection but we could get some discrete cells which could become supercells. Shear parameters look borderline around SNE but maybe enough for supercells given the strong instability. Upper level winds really aren't anything to write home about so I doubt these would be the long lived classic cells like the last event, but this is only if anything manages to fire anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Things are so conducive down here if we can initiate storms in upstate ny things could get fun after 7 pm I think during the day is a lost cause yeah pretty capped off. yeah maybe looking west/north for something then traversing southeastward. the cap is definitely weaker from RUT SW to ALB etc....so maybe some stuff fires off and then moves through with that quasi-warm front sometime late evening. that's actually what the BTV wrf is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Shear parameters look borderline around SNE but maybe enough for supercells given the strong instability. Upper level winds really aren't anything to write home about so I doubt these would be the long lived classic cells like the last event, but this is only if anything manages to fire anyway. Here's the GFS at 21z for BDL. .. UL winds aren't strong as you mention but there's a sneaky layer of mid level winds near 650mb of near 40 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Shear parameters look borderline around SNE but maybe enough for supercells given the strong instability. Upper level winds really aren't anything to write home about so I doubt these would be the long lived classic cells like the last event, but this is only if anything manages to fire anyway. ha ha. we should expect something like that again around here in about 18 years. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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