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Next shot at Severe storms: next Thu/Fri?


free_man

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Cant see the the 6z soundings but it looks like the gfs and Nam still like the after dinner/ redsox time frame for storms Thursday night.

The 00z Nam exploded storms from that front while the 06z Nam backed off a bit.. today should tell the tale if we still have a legit shot are severe, at least for CNE

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After looking at Nam soundings from 12z for places like MHT and KCOn they look pretty damn good for places north of the ma/ NH border

Nam is even showing a large hail threat from 54-60. Gets the 500-850 layer below freezing at around 5,000 feet

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LOL @ the 12z NAM soundings for tomorrow afternoon/night.

Holy hell! I didn't even notice those! Cape and lapse through the roof.. now we need a trigger. Maybe a pre frontal trough?

Ryan will the heat and humudy be enough to pop storms?

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Wow... if something pops... bombs away.

Decent shear too

those soundings are ridiculous. the NAM's had this for a bunch of consecutive runs now. very steep mid-level lapse rates, -8 to -10C LIs widespread. huge, fat CAPE profiles for a lot of the area.

there's a little theta-e bump in the 925-850 layer that shifts across in the evening - i guess the warm front basically. you can see a nice surge in pwats - they jump significantly then dive again late at night. i don't know if there's enough of a trigger to get anything going, but if a complex can develop amid that boundary...lookout.

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those soundings are ridiculous. the NAM's had this for a bunch of consecutive runs now. very steep mid-level lapse rates, -8 to -10C LIs widespread. huge, fat CAPE profiles for a lot of the area.

there's a little theta-e bump in the 925-850 layer that shifts across in the evening - i guess the warm front basically. you can see a nice surge in pwats - they jump significantly then dive again late at night. i don't know if there's enough of a trigger to get anything going, but if a complex can develop amid that boundary...lookout.

Are these as strong as 6/1?

Tip, I see you lurking, thoughts on Wed and Thurs?

I'm curious to see if the hi Res models pop storms for tomorrow at 12z again

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those soundings are ridiculous. the NAM's had this for a bunch of consecutive runs now. very steep mid-level lapse rates, -8 to -10C LIs widespread. huge, fat CAPE profiles for a lot of the area.

there's a little theta-e bump in the 925-850 layer that shifts across in the evening - i guess the warm front basically. you can see a nice surge in pwats - they jump significantly then dive again late at night. i don't know if there's enough of a trigger to get anything going, but if a complex can develop amid that boundary...lookout.

500 mb heights increase through the day fairly noticeably so I think for the most part we remained capped. But it's not going to take a lot to get something fired up and modest vertical shear will help organize any storms that do.

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The NAM definitely has a remnant EML in the soundings. You could get a straight line wind event out of that...tornado threat would be appear to be minimal with lack of backed low levels.

Did you guys notice that warm frontal-related convection out around Clevland this morning? I am wondering if that could occur here despite NAM's current modeled QPF numbers. The warm front seems sort of diffused as it limps through here in the morning, but it could be an impetus for some IB perhaps. The severe during the morning before the tornadoes, for example, I believe was not well modeled.

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After looking at Nam soundings from 12z for places like MHT and KCOn they look pretty damn good for places north of the ma/ NH border

Nam is even showing a large hail threat from 54-60. Gets the 500-850 layer below freezing at around 5,000 feet

What in the sam hell are you talking about? 5,000 feet is around 850mb, there is nothing close to freezing at that level unless you live up near Hudson Bay.

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Where is the trigger?

that's what we were saying. there really isn't too much of one. chances are all of that instability goes by the wayside without too much happening.

some of the sref members do manage to fire a few storms. there's also a fizzling warm front shifting through so maybe that could do something.

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that's what we were saying. there really isn't too much of one. chances are all of that instability goes by the wayside without too much happening.

some of the sref members do manage to fire a few storms. there's also a fizzling warm front shifting through so maybe that could do something.

I was on my BB and hadn't seen those other posts. Hopefully that diffuse w/f is enough to trigger some damage

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I think that is sufficient to say that no matter what types of set-ups we see for the rest of the summer, everything will fall short (thankfully) of what folks endured last week.

For mass yea.. for SNH its "I think that it is sufficient to say that every setup we see will produce Better than last week" lol

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