weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 70-75 dbz echoes showing up on Buffalo radar.. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 LI index remains fairly steady through 2:00 AM or so at around -8C but it does drop to -9C around 11:00 PM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather01089 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Instability will be decreasing after sunset. 500mb is warming, not cooling, overall. Not sure about the last part. Maybe you should look at bukit..... Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 500mb temps do slightly cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Maybe you should look at bukit..... Ray No that is true, instability would be rising tonight. I'll reinstall bufkit at some point , lost it several weeks ago on dead pc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather01089 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 500mb temps do slightly cool. They have to, look at the LI. The LI gets a degree or two MORE unstable after evening. LI is based on the surface temps and 500 among other things. But if the surface cools the 500 has to as well or the LI decreases. Just that fact the the LI gains a point or two of instability toward 11PM tells you the story. Looking at BDL and CEF by the way maybe thats the difference in observation here. Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 The dewpoint is 55 right now. if it gets less stable... Honestly I never really looked at today too seriously, I'll go back and read the thread and the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 They have to, look at the LI. The LI gets a degree or two MORE unstable after evening. LI is based on the surface temps and 500 among other things. But if the surface cools the 500 has to as well or the LI decreases. Just that fact the the LI gains a point or two of instability toward 11PM tells you the story. Looking at BDL and CEF by the way maybe thats the difference in observation here. Ray The issue is just the cap...can we overcome it? With increasing theta-e and dewpoints later on with the approaching warm front perhaps that can help to erode the cap. We've seen in the past though when it doesn't seem like we will get anything most of the time when we see 500mb temps cool at night and LI's drop we get some sneaky stuff...this happened quite a bit in 2008 and also occurred last year on May 26th. We definitely will have the instability/shear numbers in place...all we need is the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 The dewpoint is 55 right now. if it gets less stable... Honestly I never really looked at today too seriously, I'll go back and read the thread and the AFD. DP of 66F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather01089 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 DP of 66F here. 66 here. The cap is there but it doesnt take much of a trigger with those parameters to break it. If it holds we get nada, if it breaks, there will be some interesting stuff around. Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Ekster, What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Ekster, What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Based on the EML climo, I think there's a "decent" chance of some sort of MCS affecting northern new york and northern new england tonight...will be fun to watch and see if something tracks through there. Will have to watch that line of storms to the nw of lake ontario at present, and then that thing coming into western lake huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 The LI falls from 5.1c to 2.7c between 0z and 6z on the gfs. CAPE drops to 556 from 1600 at 0z ;p Am I looking at old data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 The LI falls from 5.1c to 2.7c between 0z and 6z on the gfs. CAPE drops to 556 from 1600 at 0z ;p Am I looking at old data? which station? I've never really seen the GFS really do well in these situations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 which station? I've never really seen the GFS really do well in these situations though. bdl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 bdl BDL bufkit has 2120 Cape and -5C LI at 8:00 PM and 1315 Cape at -3C LI at 2:00 AM Obviously not as unstable as the NAM is...still fairly unstable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Very nice line coming into NY now.. hope it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 BDL bufkit has 2120 Cape and -5C LI at 8:00 PM and 1315 Cape at -3C LI at 2:00 AM Obviously not as unstable as the NAM is...still fairly unstable though. 12z gfs for bdl, 0z Sounding variables and indices 1000-500 mb thick: 5759.24 m Freezing level: 606.65 mb = 4318.85 m = 14169.27 ft Wetbulb zero: 662.46 mb = 3604.20 m = 11824.66 ft Precipitable water: 1.51 inches Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 49.15 % Est. max temperature: 34.67 C = 94.41 F Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 929.93 mb = 718.53 m = 2357.35 ft T: 27.73 C 700-500 lapse rate: 6.57 C/km ThetaE index: 25.64 C Layer 900.0- 550.0 mb Conv cond level (CCL): 768.36 mb = 2373.18 m = 7785.92 ft Mean mixing ratio: 13.16 g/kg Conv temperature: 35.31 C = 95.56 F Cap Strength: 3.08 C Lifted Index: -5.11 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable Lifted Index @300 mb: -6.65 C Lifted Index @700 mb: -1.45 C Showalter Index: -4.00 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible Total Totals Index: 54.10 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms Vertical Totals Index: 31.44 C Cross Totals Index: 22.66 C K Index: 39.05 Risk: > 80 % chance of thunderstorms Sweat Index: 323.42 Risk: Showers and thunderstorms possible Energy Index: -3.53 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable Parcel Indices Parcel: using 100 mb layer CAPE (B+): 1778.82 J/kg Max Up Vert Vel: 59.65 m/s Conv Inhibition (B-): 142.67 J/kg Cap Strength: 3.08 C Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 809.37 mb = 1930.96 m = 6335.10 ft Lev Free Conv (LFC): 734.37 mb = 2753.47 m = 9033.58 ft Equ Level (EL): 194.37 mb = 12427.70 m = 40772.81 ft B at Equ Level: 1771.93 J/kg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 90/70 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Man, some of the Dcape values right now are some of the highest I've ever seen around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 MCD out...watch likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drew13btv Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1136.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 MCD out...watch likely. awt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 awt? Some spots tonight are going to have some big time fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Don't look now (but look now)... just browsing radars during a late lunch and noticed what looks like some good rotation in the middle of that line approaching the Canada/US border... will be near Watertown NY in about 45 minutes. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 As wiz thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Rotation fizzled after a half dozen frames, but Environment Canada has a bunch of severe t-storm warnings up. I imagine 2 inch hail in eastern Ontario is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 The latest HRRR is probably too crazy and doesn't seem to have the best handle on the ontario complex, but fun to look at nonetheless. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011060818&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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