CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Upstate NY through northern central VT/NH and parts of ME. Airmass is going to be extremely unstable and wind profile should mainly be unidirectional, not a great deal of shear in place but along/just behind the cold front exist a great deal of shear...so the closer to the front the better. Forecast soundings (at least at BTV) actually have a loaded gun look to them which is pretty damn impressive. Well with you going north, we can probably lock in a derecho down here. All we need is for Kevin to downplay it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Upstate NY through northern central VT/NH and parts of ME. Airmass is going to be extremely unstable and wind profile should mainly be unidirectional, not a great deal of shear in place but along/just behind the cold front exist a great deal of shear...so the closer to the front the better. Forecast soundings (at least at BTV) actually have a loaded gun look to them which is pretty damn impressive. Ill be in Littleton, NH on Thursday for work 830 to 12.. might stay for a while up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Well with you going north, we can probably lock in a derecho down here. All we need is for Kevin to downplay it. If that happens I'm telling my friend to just nose dive off a cliff. I know this is pretty damn rare here but I could actually see a severe squall line make it into SNE either overnight Thursday or during the early AM hours of Friday...something like that is rare here but it has happened before...and if you look at the instances it has the setup is quite similar. Very unstable airmass, not a great deal of shear over the region but great shear just along/behind the front with a good deal of mid/upper level support...that's what's lacking across SNE Thursday...the support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 If that happens I'm telling my friend to just nose dive off a cliff. I know this is pretty damn rare here but I could actually see a severe squall line make it into SNE either overnight Thursday or during the early AM hours of Friday...something like that is rare here but it has happened before...and if you look at the instances it has the setup is quite similar. Very unstable airmass, not a great deal of shear over the region but great shear just along/behind the front with a good deal of mid/upper level support...that's what's lacking across SNE Thursday...the support. Yea I mean 95-100 degree F and high dews should spark isolated storms in itself.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Yea I mean 95-100 degree F and high dews should spark isolated storms in itself.. Well were likely going to be capped so were going to need some sort of lifting mechanism to break through the cap, this is also why places further north in New england stand a better chance. Thursday also doesn't look like much of a sea breeze type of day either (unless the wind direction shifts)...regardless I'm not so sure if the sea-breeze would even really be strong enough to break through the cap...but it will also depend on the strength of the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 The NAM definitely has a remnant EML in the soundings. You could get a straight line wind event out of that...tornado threat would be appear to be minimal with lack of backed low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 The NAM definitely has a remnant EML in the soundings. You could get a straight line wind event out of that...tornado threat would be appear to be minimal with lack of backed low levels. Yeah, we'll have an at least one EML plume come overhead starting tomorrow night...and probably have busts of steep lapse rates through thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Yeah, we'll have an at least one EML plume come overhead starting tomorrow night...and probably have busts of steep lapse rates through thurs. I'm going chasing in northern VT or NY on Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I'm going chasing in northern VT or NY on Thursday! Just play baseball instead. Much safer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Just play baseball instead. Much safer. Absolutely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Yeah, we'll have an at least one EML plume come overhead starting tomorrow night...and probably have busts of steep lapse rates through thurs. What do you think at the chance of one of those nocturnal straight line wind events from an MCS? I don't want to necessarily go as far as saying a derecho though that would obviously be the most intense scenario. Maybe a complex can sneak over the top of that ridge and come in from the WNW or NW and take advantage of the EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 What do you think at the chance of one of those nocturnal straight line wind events from an MCS? I don't want to necessarily go as far as saying a derecho though that would obviously be the most intense scenario. Maybe a complex can sneak over the top of that ridge and come in from the WNW or NW and take advantage of the EML. Northeast derechos tend to need 70+ dewpoints...and oftentimes higher. However, I could see some sort of MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 The ecmwf may be hinting at a quebec mcs wed night that affects northernmost VT eastward to caribou's forecast area thurs. Looks like something else up there 24 hours earlier too. given the strength of the ridging, that's probably where it will be if it happens...not so much SNE. SNE would probably be more prone to diurnal afternoon/evening stuff if the cap isn't too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 How do you chase thunderstorms in northern VT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 How do you chase thunderstorms in northern VT? Get to them and get inside them...you can also see some good structures actually if you get up on a hill and get a good viewing spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 If we can get something to pop Wednesday night....things look more favorable for severe weather over SNE...shear....low-level shear, and instability are more impressive than Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Get to them and get inside them...you can also see some good structures actually if you get up on a hill and get a good viewing spot. I was asking about thunderstorms... It just doesn't seem conducive given the terrain and the road system. Probably a lot worse than even in Mass lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I was asking about thunderstorms... It just doesn't seem conducive given the terrain and the road system. Probably a lot worse than even in Mass lol. Well the one positive is there isn't a great deal of traffic to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I just don't understand...WTF difference is Thornton going to make? It's not like the Bruins are being physically dominated in this series. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I just don't understand...WTF difference is Thornton going to make? It's not like the Bruins are being physically dominated in this series. wrong thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 wrong thread? oops...I have this thread in one tab and the B's thread in another...surprised this hasn't happened to me more this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Get to them and get inside them...you can also see some good structures actually if you get up on a hill and get a good viewing spot. If you find yourself in the Burlington area, Overlook Park off Spear Street in South Burlington is a great spot to watch storms come across the lake. Another good spot a litle further north is Watertower Hill off I-89 Exit 16 in Colchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 If you find yourself in the Burlington area, Overlook Park off Spear Street in South Burlington is a great spot to watch storms come across the lake. Another good spot a litle further north is Watertown Hill off I-89 Exit 16 in Colchester. I'll write this down, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I just don't understand...WTF difference is Thornton going to make? It's not like the Bruins are being physically dominated in this series. And it's Horton....not Thornton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 And it's Horton....not Thornton... I'm talking about Thornton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFMass Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 We have a private model here centered over QC based on the WRF ARW. Unlike the WRF NMM it doesn't break any convection in S-QC on Wed, everything seems to stay north of the ridge (we simulate up to 72h on a 10km res and we have a smaller domain doing 36 hours at 3km). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 NAM goes KABOOM again late thursday into friday... might be a late night on thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Get to them and get inside them...you can also see some good structures actually if you get up on a hill and get a good viewing spot. Wiz.. jesus h christ he wasn't talking about the old women in your neighborhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I'll write this down, thanks! Meant to say Watertower Hill. Head toward Colchester off the exit and take a left by Friendlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Earlier from SPC VALID 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PRECEDING SFC CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS QUE/ONT DAY-4/9TH-10TH...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD OVER PORTIONS NY/NEW ENGLAND AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS AGREE REMARKABLY WELL ON THIS GEN SCENARIO WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. SRN RIM OF HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD CORRESPOND TO THAT OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. MEANWHILE SEASONALLY STG COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPINGE ON RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTAINING 60S TO ISOLATED 70S SFC DEW POINTS. SUCH SCENARIO FAVORS CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL...CURRENTLY MOST PROBABLE OVER NRN NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. Something to watch may be Thu nite? if front has the push to make it through C/E New England. There should be plenty of elevated instability to work with. From BOX VERY UNSTABLE AGAIN THU WITH POSSIBLE EML ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE CAP AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR. IT MAY END UP DRY MOST OF THE DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. BEST CHC TSTMS AND SEVERE WX MAY BE THU NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SWD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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