ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That's a totally different setup. You had a 700mb low close near ACK and then stretch out with an inverted sfc trough and strong mid level frontogenesis as the thing pulled away. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1999/us0311.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Here is an example of a huge bust because of a stretched out ULL...this setup was more ideal and produced heavy amounts, but it illustrates the danger of bust potential I think the forecast was for like 2-5" but then we snowed forever after the main low exited and parts of central MA ended up with a foot of snow....pretty big bust. I think positive busts occur more often with 5 h situations than any other setup, usually the negative busts are quick rain changeovers or whiffs out to sea. Definely interested in how this evolves but believe East of the CT river is looking good for measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 72 hours 18z NAM is closer to the Cape Hatteras, NC region with the placement of the clipper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0311.php Yeah that's definitely better. Nice PVA on the backside of that thing with a slow moving s/w at 500mb coupled with some frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Miller b fest on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think positive busts occur more often with 5 h situations than any other setup, usually the negative busts are quick rain changeovers or whiffs out to sea. Definely interested in how this evolves but believe East of the CT river is looking good for measurable. Yeah, we'll see. Most of the guidance had some h7 deformation over the area even if they weren't spitting out qpf. So that makes me a bit more optimistic for some snow...even if not much...than I would be otherwise. Ironically the 18z nam looks worse than all the other models at 12z after the 12z nam was by far the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Miller b fest on the euro ensembles. Its still hammering 12/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah that's definitely better. Nice PVA on the backside of that thing with a slow moving s/w at 500mb coupled with some frontogenesis. What's hurting us here is we're sort of in nomansland on the backside of that ULL with the synoptic forcing and s/w to the north and in general dry mid levels rotating through on the W side of the ULL with seemingly no inverted trough and just stuck between 2 sfc lows spinning around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Miller b fest on the euro ensembles. No kidding. Nice looking 12/12 or 12/13!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0311.php Follow up storm was even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Clipper looks so close to happening at least for Cape Cod, MA. Man this stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Swing and a miss at 84 hours with the clipper/coastal low. Wouldn't expect the 18z GFS to show any changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Swing and a miss at 84 hours with the clipper/coastal low. Wouldn't expect the 18z GFS to show any changes. We'll have our chances coming up. Just enjoy any flurries/shsn/-sn that this may bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 We'll have our chances coming up. Just enjoy any flurries/shsn/-sn that this may bring. Yeah I know, just hate seeing such a great snowstorm miss us to the east. I mean look at the structure it has on the 18z NAM radar reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah I know, just hate seeing such a great snowstorm miss us to the east. I mean look at the structure it has on the 18z NAM radar reflectivity. The story of 2010 man...picking up right where last winter ended. The hits are coming though, sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 We'll have our chances coming up. Just enjoy any flurries/shsn/-sn that this may bring. or the 3-6"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 How's that guy everyone was mocking this summer when he called for Europes coldest winter in one hundred years feeling right now? Nice start to confirmation for him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 or the 3-6"! maybe by the end of december how bout that LES though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 How's that guy everyone was mocking this summer when he called for Europes coldest winter in one hundred years feeling right now? Nice start to confirmation for him! who was that? point and clicks for twin mountain 1400' in Nh call for rain /snow mix on saturday......what's up with the F'n mix that far north and elevation? elphant? would be humorous if event over-performed qpf wise and 90% of it fell between 10 and 5 sunday as RN. 2010 style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 or the 3-6"! LOL , my hope is we get that, ULLs are notorious for the unexpected, it would be sweet to see a nice snow cover to assist radiation for low temps, also would be great theater to watch KeV spank you and put you in the corner with a dunce cap on, Jayhawk give me some Ryan Duncecap material LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 LOL , my hope is we get that, ULLs are notorious for the unexpected, it would be sweet to see a nice snow cover to assist radiation for low temps, also would be great theater to watch KeV spank you and put you in the corner with a dunce cap on, Jayhawk give me some Ryan Duncecap material LOL lol .. if SNE gets 3-6" I'm sure DD will allow me to put a dunce cap on his image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 He probley feels as good as kevin is going to if we get 3 to 6 out of this for some messed up reason! How's that guy everyone was mocking this summer when he called for Europes coldest winter in one hundred years feeling right now? Nice start to confirmation for him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 LOL , my hope is we get that, ULLs are notorious for the unexpected, it would be sweet to see a nice snow cover to assist radiation for low temps, also would be great theater to watch KeV spank you and put you in the corner with a dunce cap on, Jayhawk give me some Ryan Duncecap material LOL The squirrel from Mt Tolland is already trying to squirrel his way out of his "majority of SNE sees 3-6" " Now it's majority sees 1-3 maybe 4. My forecast is that I'm 95% confident Kevin doesn't see more than an inch this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 lol .. if SNE gets 3-6" I'm sure DD will allow me to put a dunce cap on his image. Kiss a s s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The squirrel from Mt Tolland is already trying to squirrel his way out of his "majority of SNE sees 3-6" " Now it's majority sees 1-3 maybe 4. My forecast is that I'm 95% confident Kevin doesn't see more than an inch this weekend. Polish scientists nail Dec in Europe, Kevs private team you could be in trouble Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years. The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe. … “Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer’s heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren’t able to predict an anomaly like that.” In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Kiss a s s Well, I can't do it now ... my photoshopping program is on my home PC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Well, I can't do it now ... my photoshopping program is on my home PC. J/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 J/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Polish scientists nail Dec in Europe, Kevs private team you could be in trouble Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years. The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe. … “Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer’s heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren’t able to predict an anomaly like that.” In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold. Yesterday was the coldest 12/1 in Moscow since 16 years before I was born. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 now we gotta deal with a westerly based -EPO ??!! j h christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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