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June In Southern New England...............

Mr Torchey

By Mr Torchey,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Nothing but 80's and 90's thru day 10. Tie on a fresh pony-o each day and relish it

Phail. Not even 80,

fcst.jpg

Overnight: Isolated showers before 1am. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. West wind between 3 and 8 mph.

Sunday Night: Patchy fog between 2am and 3am, then Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Light and variable wind.

Tuesday: A chance of showers, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 79.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Wednesday looks like a cool day with potentially heavy rains from the weak low tracking through Quebec.

Real heat should arrive by the 4th of July weekend, but it will be short-lived with the weakness in the jet and NW flow aloft.

I think we move towards a bias above normal 7/5-15. There will simply be too much heat and the ridge expanson will at least clip us to the extent that cool downs will be modest with normal temps vs -15+ departures like we've been seeing. Tomorrow should be the 1st day 70+ at BOS since early in the week (Tuesday I think...)

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Woke up to bright sun--what a change. I'm not sure if the link below will work or not, but this is the Deerfield in Shelburne Falls yesterday. Always good to see it flowing nicely.

57.1/56

http://sharing.theflip.com/session/32ea3072a61a51608907bd841c8daa65/video/97982361

It works Mike. Nice, where's the kayak?

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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The 3 days of hell are a distant memory now, yestereday was perfect, and it does not get any better than today. Weather this week looks so nice, perfect balance of liquid gold and sun.........everything is so happy.

Off for a long walk then to the beach, happy sunday

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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The 3 days of hell are a distant memory now, yestereday was perfect, and it does not get any better than today. Weather this week looks so nice, perfect balance of liquid gold and sun.........everything is so happy.

Off for a long walk then to the beach, happy sunday

The inch of rain we received yesterday evening did not even out the 4 hours of semi-clouds/sun we received

Today is a better day

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think the NAO is a hangover effect from the SSW, and also..possible MJO forcing. Weak have a very weak Nina signal now. AMO is weak as well. I just don't see something that sticks out and helps drive the pattern around. I think we are at the mercy of whatever perturbations there are flying around this globe...such as the MJO.

So what does that mean? Who knows. The NAO may slowly weaken, but a more +PNA seems to want to takes it's place in the form of ridging over western Canada. I guess in theory, that wouldn't be such a bad thing because it might help to form troughiness over the Great Lakes which would promote a warmer flow with the occasional fropa coming through, but if any ridging develops to our northeast, then it could mean some more of this stuff...only perhaps not as severe. I'm really just speculating at this point.

Who knows what physical forces are conspiring in total. Actually, I am less reliant on the PNA during JJA. Most studies show that index is far less correlated on the NA pattern orientation than during the DJF - opposing spectrum of influence actually. Right now, the index is erroneously forecast to dive to -1SD and then neutralize - I say erroneously because ...I just know it won't happen. Trust me. That said, even if it did, that native seasonal incoherence tosses hands as to what that would mean anyway, and the neutralization thereafter really all just turns that off for me. Ha, that said, it's hard to argue that the pattern doesn't "looK" +PNA-like. But, there is a difference between a +PNAP and a +PNA. The former is the Perennial N American Pattern, which is a flat ridge west, flat trough east - more of a torque conservation from having the westerlies blow over-top the Rockie's cordillera. Once we include the whole the Pacific's contributing domain, there is a huge disconnect there. -PNAP happens transiently during overall +PNA all the time when it is more meaningful in the winter in general. Right now the +PNAP seems to be showing up in the dailies regardless of whatever heretofore teleconnector progs have shown in the PNA - perhaps a clue as to the PNA's futility at this time of year. Be that as it may, this is now the 4th crumble big heat signal crumble at the seemingly inevitable emergence of a +PNAP so far this year. The ECM (operational) was down right comical per last night's run. The model actual spun up a coastal bomb February style and slams NF with storm force nor'easter fury, and even cuts off a -1C plume of 850 air in the cold sector of the cyclone! Ah, was there a big volcano this year? I thought Pinatubo was in 1991! Holy mackaroni. The model is trying to hold onto winter, yes WINTER in SUMMER - there is no other interpretation that that is rational, and it's sick. Meanwhile, it has 110+F in the Sonoran Desert regions at the same D9.. Obviously the next run will have abolished that.

As far as the MJO goes - the wave is very weak and has been that way for weeks now, according to the CDC publication. The wave's R-Wave dispersion and effect on the middle latitude's bumps and bruise in the flow requires gradient in the first place, which is inherently too weak at this time of year to trigger a response. Now ...if the wave should suddenly get strong, or at least strong enough, that's another story.

I think you have more of the right idea with the NAO though, which does hold onto meaningful correlation at this time of year. You may also be onto something with some residual SSW effects having a relationship there. I was just looking at that yesterday morning as a matter of fact; there is a very weak node of anomaly warmth remaining in an otherwise seasonally neutralized medium, within the polar vortex. It's subtle, but you can track it back in time with about a 2 week oscillatory prevalence along a slow decay, since the emergence of the main player back in ...I think it was late April. Anyway, my own speculation is that a weaker warm tropopause may have a bigger impact on a weak summer polar vortex field, then the same variation would during the raging winter version. Why not? Everything else in nature is a matter or relativity...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Who knows what physical forces are conspiring in total. Actually, I am less reliant on the PNA during JJA. Most studies show that index is far less correlated on the NA pattern orientation than during the DJF - opposing spectrum of influence actually. Right now, the index is erroneously forecast to dive to -1SD and then neutralize - I say erroneously because ...I just know it won't happen. Trust me. That said, even if it did, that native seasonal incoherence tosses hands as to what that would mean anyway, and the neutralization thereafter really all just turns that off for me. Ha, that said, it's hard to argue that the pattern doesn't "looK" +PNA-like. But, there is a difference between a +PNAP and a +PNA. The former is the Perennial N American Pattern, which is a flat ridge west, flat trough east - more of a torque conservation from having the westerlies blow over-top the Rockie's cordillera. Once we include the whole the Pacific's contributing domain, there is a huge disconnect there. -PNAP happens transiently during overall +PNA all the time when it is more meaningful in the winter in general. Right now the +PNAP seems to be showing up in the dailies regardless of whatever heretofore teleconnector progs have shown in the PNA - perhaps a clue as to the PNA's futility at this time of year. Be that as it may, this is now the 4th crumble big heat signal crumble at the seemingly inevitable emergence of a +PNAP so far this year. The ECM (operational) was down right comical per last night's run. The model actual spun up a coastal bomb February style and slams NF with storm force nor'easter fury, and even cuts off a -1C plume of 850 air in the cold sector of the cyclone! Ah, was there a big volcano this year? I thought Pinatubo was in 1991! Holy mackaroni. The model is trying to hold onto winter, yes WINTER in SUMMER - there is no other interpretation that that is rational, and it's sick. Meanwhile, it has 110+F in the Sonoran Desert regions at the same D9.. Obviously the next run will have abolished that.

As far as the MJO goes - the wave is very weak and has been that way for weeks now, according to the CDC publication. The wave's R-Wave dispersion and effect on the middle latitude's bumps and bruise in the flow requires gradient in the first place, which is inherently too weak at this time of year to trigger a response. Now ...if the wave should suddenly get strong, or at least strong enough, that's another story.

I think you have more of the right idea with the NAO though, which does hold onto meaningful correlation at this time of year. You may also be onto something with some residual SSW effects having a relationship there. I was just looking at that yesterday morning as a matter of fact; there is a very weak node of anomaly warmth remaining in an otherwise seasonally neutralized medium, within the polar vortex. It's subtle, but you can track it back in time with about a 2 week oscillatory prevalence along a slow decay, since the emergence of the main player back in ...I think it was late April. Anyway, my own speculation is that a weaker warm tropopause may have a bigger impact on a weak summer polar vortex field, then the same variation would during the raging winter version. Why not? Everything else in nature is a matter or relativity...

Nice post. When I meant MJO, I was just referring to the fact we may be at the mercy of any waves for the time being, simply because I don't see major players right now...like La Nina...etc. We'll see what that recurving cyclone in the Pacific does too.

I do see your +PNAP mention in the maps. As a matter of fact...the sicko in me thought about how amazing the hr 240 panel was on the EC mean 500 anomaly ensemble.....lol. That would bring excitement to many of us in SNE, if it were winter.

But, I do look forward to some warmer weather. I don't like oppressive stuff, but this wx is ridiculous. At least the sun is out today.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Getting warmer--up to 68.2/61 at 12:40.

New deck area is now cleared of trees. Excavation and holes tomorrow. Hopefully I can get them to use whatever equipment they have to do a skimming of some of the area I've been cutting to rid the stumps. I wish it would be done for the 4th, but probably not until the follow week.

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