Stebo Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm skeptical. Debris might hamper our potential. I am not worried at all, its better we are getting stuff now than say at 3pm. Plus the debris will be moving right along, the speed of the storms on the warning statements in IN are 50mph to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormchaser21 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 So does anybody think poplar bluff, mo mite b a good spot to setup for initiation or r people thinking farther south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 DTX is a tad more confident in severe weather around 00z this evening, and the best threat will be from Detroit (8 Mile) and southward. This includes the whole kit and kaboodle (supercells, bow echos, tornadoes, hail, damaging winds, etc.). Yea. But it wouldn't shock me at all to the threat expand Northward maybe as far as M59 or further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 DTX is a tad more confident in severe weather around 00z this evening, and the best threat will be from Detroit (8 Mile) and southward. This includes the whole kit and kaboodle (supercells, bow echos, tornadoes, hail, damaging winds, etc.). This year so far is shaping up like last year with the severe weather staying along and south of 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Warm front rolling through here right now. Decent t-storm with a lot of cloud to ground lightning and a good bit of heavy rain at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Someone in our group, I believe from Evansville or Louisville, a month or so ago were running some form of a high resolution model with city by city instability numbers. It was in a form with the different parameters for each city - anyone know that link? Thanks This? http://www.kokomo-weather.com/RUC/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Looks like the high risk will be extended up to about I-70 in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Heading south on 55, thinking southern IL but will fine tune a target later. Really don't want to have to deal with the miss river but might have too. Would like to play central IL on the warm front but 10-15kt 850mb flow kinda sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Had some small hail and gusty winds with that line that passed through...subsevere though at least here. Looks like there was a possible tornado in Newton county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 looks like some filtered sun should be pushing into northern illinois by noon-ish, modest insolation might do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 This? http://www.kokomo-weather.com/RUC/ Great site. Very helpful. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 All of Metro Detroit is under a Flood Warning until 11:30 tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I talked to a co-worker from St. Louis, she said for days the news/weather have been saying every chance they can get about the weather and chance of storms for today and reminding people about what to do in the event of a tornado. Hopefully other areas have done similar things and the public is aware of what is to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I talked to a co-worker from St. Louis, she said for days the news/weather have been saying every chance they can get about the weather and chance of storms for today and reminding people about what to do in the event of a tornado. Hopefully other areas have done similar things and the public is aware of what is to come. yep... they warn us ahead of time like crazy, although as soon as a tornado warning comes they won't do jack squat in terms of covering it.... I think Today will be MUCH different though thanks to Joplin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Tornado Watch #369 is in effect until 6:00pm Central Time: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0369.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 And in DTX's HWO, everyone along/south of M-59 is in the orange shading, or chance of severe weather shading. Everyone north of there is in the yellow shading, or slight risk shading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoldenEagle Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I am thinking Central Arkansas is going to dodge a bit of a bullet on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Strong sunshine here in West Central Illinois right now after this mornings nearly 2 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 All of Metro Detroit is under a Flood Warning until 11:30 tomorrow evening. yea you guys got some serious stuff coming in from the sw...deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 sorry if this was posted High risk will be expanded MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...WRN KY/TN CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 251518Z - 251615Z AN EXPANSION OF THE CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK WILL OCCUR WITH THE UPDATED DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 1630Z FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...AND WRN KY/TN. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1630Z FOR FURTHER METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION. ..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011 ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK... SGF... LAT...LON 36489109 35259121 35009056 35039188 36839223 38329088 39138900 39718639 38988596 38188579 36618695 35618845 36298807 37288738 38418719 38708820 37718992 36489109 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 yea you guys got some serious stuff coming in from the sw...deluge Speaking of deluge, our decent t-storm here turned into a serious rain maker. 0.9" of rain in about 20-25 minutes made for some minor flash flooding, including have to bail water out of window wells to keep the basement dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 yea you guys got some serious stuff coming in from the sw...deluge Yeah this is not good, we are already close to the breaking point with respect to rain. Radar estimates from just this morning have over 2" fallen over parts of Wayne County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Heading south on 55, thinking southern IL but will fine tune a target later. Really don't want to have to deal with the miss river but might have too. Would like to play central IL on the warm front but 10-15kt 850mb flow kinda sucks. Southern Illinois is where I would be heading if I was out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 sorry if this was posted High risk will be expanded looks like they took a large part of the previous mod risk and made it high risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 doh, someone needs to tell the emergency managers not to fire off the noon tornado sirens when there's a thunderstorm going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 TORNADO WARNING KSC091-121-MOC037-251615- /O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0017.110525T1557Z-110525T1615Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1057 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT * AT 1052 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOUISBURG...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. AT 1055 AM CDT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED DAMAGE FRAM A TORNADO NEAR 69 HIGHWAY IN MIAMI COUNTY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BELTON...CLEVELAND...BUCYRUS...STILLWELL AND STANLEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Heading south on 55, thinking southern IL but will fine tune a target later. Really don't want to have to deal with the miss river but might have too. Would like to play central IL on the warm front but 10-15kt 850mb flow kinda sucks. Yeah, the RUC really has the low level flow crapping out. This is different than that 00z NAM you posted last night. If true then the northern parts of the risk areas might have trouble panning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN-CNTRL KY...NW-NRN TN...FAR SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 251602Z - 251630Z A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A PDS TORNADO WATCH IS BEING COORDINATED ATTM. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS FAR SRN IL AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE ERN EDGE OF A CNTRL PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL LOW. VIGOROUS STORMS WILL ALSO INITIATE IN SCNTRL MO AND MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. AS STORM INCREASE IN COVERAGE...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LINEAR STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL BUT STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLS CONTAINING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. AS A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVELY HELICITIES WILL INCREASE BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Tornado heading towards Kansas City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 PDS watch out includes St Louis, Effingham, Mt Vernon, Evansville/Henderson/Owensboro and others till 9PM ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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