ukrocks Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looking to be quite a dangerous day tomorrow. And it looks like more metro areas will be in the path of the storms tomorrow than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Definitely keeping my eye on tomorrow. Could be a rough day for anyone in LMK area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 SREF is very good for me up here with readings in the 20s. Safe to say tomorrow could be real big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Hmmm, something wrong with the WRF-NMM? that's a pretty strong and smooth gradient cutoff for the CAPE...looks unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 St Louis looks to be in the tornado threat area again tomorrow. Could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 50%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Indy special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 50%... Well, looks like tomorrow is going to be pretty interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 50%... Hopefully things are visible at least. We don't need a bunch of rain wrapped tornadoes to add to the danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 from ILX THE EVOLUTION OF THE MISSOURI MCS AS WELL AS WHAT IS DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FROM THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER INTO TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW COMES INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY 00Z THU. IF ENOUGH RECOVERY CAN TAKE PLACE AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY...THEN THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH BETTER THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LAYER SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. THE BIGGEST CHANCE FOR AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL BE OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS... POSSIBLY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA...WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 St Louis looks to be in the tornado threat area again tomorrow. Could be interesting. yep, higher tornado risk looks to be east of the metro though over illinois, but interesting for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 MEG: SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE WEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND POTENTIAL NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MAYBE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...BUT AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AND REDUCTION IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. ANY ISOLATED SEVERE STORM TONIGHT WOULD POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT. THIS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LAY OUT A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH SBCAPES EXPECTED BETWEEN 2500-4000 J/KG AND LI/S BETWEEN -8C AND -10C. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL INITIALLY BE CAPPED BY A MID LEVEL INVERSION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 70 METERS OVERSPREADS THE WEAKLY CAPPED VERY UNSTABLE NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS...EXPECT THE CAP TO ERODE AND EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. STRENGTHENING LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN 80+KT MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THE OZARKS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE MID SOUTH...SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND EVOLVING EASTWARD INTO FAR WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH BE AIDED BY 0-1KM SRH BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2 WHICH WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI BY AFTERNOON. THIS DEGREE OF SRH SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN VIGOROUS ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN SUPERCELLS. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY OF THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MID SOUTH REMAIN IN A SPC DAY 2 MODERATE RISK AREA...WHICH IS MORE THAN JUSTIFIED. DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG OR EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS WIND FEILDS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE QLCS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN AREAS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS THAT WOULD NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Hmmm, I can only chase about as far as Indy tomorrow. Trying to decide if it's worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Hmmm, I can only chase about as far as Indy tomorrow. Trying to decide if it's worth it. It should be, I expect that there will be a good potential of tornadoes north of Indy tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It should be, I expect that there will be a good potential of tornadoes north of Indy tomorrow. It seems to me that the Ohio Valley might get socked with rain most of the day tomorrow. Perhaps any tornadoes that form there would be rain-wrapped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It should be, I expect that there will be a good potential of tornadoes north of Indy tomorrow. I'm hoping to see both an IL and IN tornado lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm hoping to see both an IL and IN tornado lol Just park at the state line Joking aside the potential really is looking like it is going to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I heard someone say earlier that this is going to be a classic 'conditional' threat for Southeastern Michigan tomorrow. What conditions must be met? If all these conditions (within the realm of possibility!) are met, what might we expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It should be, I expect that there will be a good potential of tornadoes north of Indy tomorrow. Not sure what to think around the FDY region... RUC showing some good instability with the warm front passing by 18-19z... Significant Tornado Ingredients on the SREF of about 30%... so there's obviously potential. One of those days where cloud debris will be very important. Even the NAM looked pretty impressive from FWA to FDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Off the 0z NAM for the small triangle between I-55/I-70, near Litchfield, IL for tomorrow evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 . . . SE MISSOURI INTO SW ILLINOIS IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. And to think they just dealt with disastrous flooding three weeks ago. As has been said before about so many apsects of this severe weather season . . . this is nearly unfathomable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm hoping to see both an IL and IN tornado lol Good luck man! I can't get out of work till 4 so no chasing for me tomorrow. Sure looks like a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 will be interesting to see if the threat moves east quicker. Usually in these situations that tends to happen once the main focus moves out of the plains. Either way tomorrow evening has my interest....I'm thinking IND to Louisville to CMH should be rocking by dusk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 We had 10-11 hail storms (lost count) here at my place in a 10-12 day stretch in April We had 76 mph winds from one storm with power flashes to the south. We were able to see a funnel cloud with that cell. We had one tornado pass a few miles south of here - rated EF1 We watched flood waters go over our road from back water from the Ohio River - we could see and observe water surrounding houses to our northwest during the flood for days on end We had $19,600 in storm damage from the April events here at my place We had that much and more to some of the real estate we own in west KY - roof damage We took shelter three times in April - and I rarely get in a storm shelter. Yes - this has been a hyper-active storm season. And keep in mind the first half of May brought near record LOW severe weather reports! Mike York from the PAH Office told me they had over 500 reports of severe weather in April - more than 40 tornadoes. INCREDIBLE is all I can say. The only thing we have not had recently is an earthquake. Will Wednesday be the icing on the cake? Nothing surprises me anymore - nothing. Defin concerned for family and friends in our region tomorrow. It will be a long day. Let's hope for a bust. Thanks Beau now your going to jinx us..... I agree this is one time that I hope we bust badly... I just have a sick feeling about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 LMAO @ RUC. Forecasts 4500j/kg of cape near Galesburg tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Good luck man! I can't get out of work till 4 so no chasing for me tomorrow. Sure looks like a good setup. Thank you sir! I need to get a tornado after you got the Parnell tor on sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 From current radar trends and the placement of the Tornado Watch boxes tonight, I would think we'd see a progression of that convection into Southeast Missouri overnight. But what I'm seeing here is the potential for another outbreak tomorrow afternoon here. Can a promet or knowledgeable amateur explain the process involved that could generate activity tomorrow afternoon? I've been noticing the tendency for multi-day outbreaks but I am not used to this. Normally we see a system / front move through and that's it. What's going on with these multiday outbreaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Thank you sir! I need to get a tornado after you got the Parnell tor on sunday! That sounding that Chicago posted south of Springfield was SICK. Also makes me sick that I can't chase lol. Ahh, can't chase 'em all though lol. The RUC forecasts some insane instability over all of Illinois tomorrow. It's obviously way overdone but it's still nice to see. The GFS does have pockets of instability over 2500j/kg as far north as Peoria. The wind fields look better a bit further south though, especially south of Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 LMAO @ RUC. Forecasts 4500j/kg of cape near Galesburg tomorrow afternoon. its also showing near 70 dew points making it all the way the I-88 tomorrow.. I'm still trying to figure out this setup, its tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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