MJO812 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Its snowed here a week ago... and that's not *that* unusual. To most people, spring here would be considered suckier I wish it would snow here The weather pattern has been boring. Nothing to track at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The weather's been on the boring side lately, so it's nice to get an argument in here at least. You'd never know it based on the amount of bickering and arguing which has gone on in this thread and its predecessor over the last week or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I wish it would snow here The weather pattern has been boring. Nothing to track at all. There's a piece of energy being ejected out of the southwest as blocking builds over the Straits. Strong high pressure will quash this low and force a secondary to pop off the coast. Is this what you were hoping to track? There's nothing to track this time of year except the occasional thunderstorm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I wish it would snow here The weather pattern has been boring. Nothing to track at all. Meh... spring isn't really for tracking bad weather, its for enjoying good weather (granted, not a great amount of that back there lately) and enjoying the re-awakening of life after the cold, hard winter. Out HERE is a different story entirely... since there isn't all that much that re-awakens after the cold hard winter... here all that happens is tracking potential late winter snows and big wind storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 You are like the anti-noreasteryanksfanfloodhyper85. We get it dude, it wont hit 90. Yeah, Ive been repetative, sorry about that. It was dead in here, trying to get people to post, sorta worked tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The weather's been on the boring side lately, so it's nice to get an argument in here at least. Want to spice things up and make an over/under bet out of it? I'm in a gambling mood tonight, and since you just put down your range for KEWR, I'd be willing to go over 86F for KEWR, let's say their highest temp this week. Could negotiate those numbers a bit but I'll wait for your response first. PS - the 18z NAM map you posted will be underdone by several degrees at least. . lets put something up tomorrow night, give it another night of model runs, sound good? P.S. The NAM has been cooling down for days from its highs a few days ago, why do you think its underdone? looks about in line with the other models right now. EDIT: 00Z NAM doesnt get anyone to 80 on Tuesday as it continues to back off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 lets put something up tomorrow night, give it another night of model runs, sound good? P.S. The NAM has been cooling down for days from its highs a few days ago, why do you think its underdone? looks about in line with the other models right now. EDIT: 00Z NAM doesnt get anyone to 80 on Tuesday as it continues to back off Now it appears that Wednesday could be warmer than Tuesday. After the passage of the shortwave skirting just to our north, flow goes westerly, downsloping with clear skies... 80+? A lot of shuffling with forecast numbers ahead this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 At least in ten days we probably will be roasting like chickens to a brown golden crisp with burgeoning heat ridge and thermal core just SW of our area. Will pay for the cool weather like we did when June 2008 took us from 58 to 95 in about three days time. So many are supporting a 6/2008 redux. It will be a rude summer reality check and shock to the system if we can get three 95 degree days with apparent temps around 100. A really rude shock if it happens. Not really thrilled about that much heat. 80's okay. Severe ROF TSRA+ through or just north of our area. 5/31 Super outbreak in the northeast. Possible with new pattern. Canada cool, New England in the ROF SVR crosshairs, and south of that in searing, torrrid heat. 5/30 to 6/3 time period. Dangerous heat signal is on the models and this might be real now. 60% confidence of heat and 85 percent confidence of 80's. Low confidence that easterlies and cool cloudy pattern persist through 6/5. 92-98 possible in NYC, LI in the 80's, and EWR near 98-100. Possible. T-shirt and shorts time incoming. Rude switch to summer heat when we get ready to hit June. Reminds me of 2008 so much, I remember buying a snoopy plush doll about one day before the heat onset in June, and seeing 850 mb maps similar to some GFS ensemble torch maps out to 7 days and beyond.. It is summer buzzcut time everyone. Time for folks to shed the emo, hippie locks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 lets put something up tomorrow night, give it another night of model runs, sound good? P.S. The NAM has been cooling down for days from its highs a few days ago, why do you think its underdone? looks about in line with the other models right now. EDIT: 00Z NAM doesnt get anyone to 80 on Tuesday as it continues to back off Don't forgot the NAM always tends to have a cold bias and even down to Washington DC the NAM has it only barely in the low 80's so I discard that model. If there is breaks of the sun with a SW flow I do think areas SW of the city could still reach 85-90 F while the city will be in the 80-85 F, and will be much cooler along LI and other coastal sections with threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. I believe Tuesday could be the warmest day ahead of a cold front that will stall just south of the city and may lift back as warm front. But if the front goes further south then Wednesday could be a nice and coastal section may be even warmer than Tuesday where it is possible even LI could as warm as the city and NJ as could go near 80 F with a West wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I think some folks may be overestimating the amount of clouds/debris in the warm sector this week. Looking to our west, most of the Mid-west is under sunshine save for the areas w/ convection. Heading through this week, Monday will probably be the cloudiest day. you and I both know that cloud cover forecasts via debris are always a crap shoot. Yes, you can look at the mid levels to get a grasp on things, but that can be all for not if say there are clouds or some funky onshore flow or something from a boundary. Too risky this far out. Looking from a far, the upper level ridge forecast would lean twds warmer temps, but like i said, it can all be effed up pretty quick for the reasons i listed. Now, some models have convection around, and if that happens, then of course, the mos will be cooler. But as we know, convection doesnt happen as the models place it, thus the cooler mos temps in the long range can easily be higher. those that are hugging the mos can fail hard in this respect. I looked at the mos for klga on the 12z run. plenty of pops in there so temps were tapered. Can the temps be higher? sure, if we miss the storms/clouds and can torch. The upper levels are the start of it, then we just have to work around the finer details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The wind direction is SE, you need at least SSW to get the warmth into NYC and even EWR. Where's that wonderful west wind we all loved last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Where's that wonderful west wind we all loved last summer The worst wind direction is East to Northeast wind that really keeps us miserable and cool. Southeast winds are not pleasant either. Worst weather in the late spring and summer I hate are noreaster's where they bring chilly rains and biting east to northeast winds. Noreasters belong in the winter where they bring the epic snows. Today now will be the transition day where the warm front will approach but the winds will remain south to southeast where most areas will still remain on the cool side but few degrees warmer where today or should yesterday never got out of the 50's where it will be the 60's for most areas where SW of the city will probably reach 70 F or in the low 70 with showers and isolated thunderstorms a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Pouring here in hazlet/Holmdel area. 10 days straight of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Pouring here in hazlet/Holmdel area. 10 days straight of rain pretty intense little cell moved through, part of that elevated instability upton noted. You should get warm later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Heavy downpour moving through Long Beach right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Heavy downpour moving through Long Beach right now. nice image....good screen catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 As many of us thought, the torch is failing miserably. Currently 58.5/58 with a light mist and deep overcast...where are my days and days of 85-90F weather, Isotherm? High of only 59.0F yesterday, almost 15 degrees below normal. Not impressive for late May....I was sleeping in heavy blankets last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Tomorrow As many of us thought, the torch is failing miserably. Currently 58.5/58 with a light mist and deep overcast...where are my days and days of 85-90F weather, Isotherm? High of only 59.0F yesterday, almost 15 degrees below normal. Not impressive for late May....I was sleeping in heavy blankets last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 this models are horrible.. 1 week bringing rain for memorial weekend and now sunny..and cloudy..ja! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 As many of us thought, the torch is failing miserably. Currently 58.5/58 with a light mist and deep overcast...where are my days and days of 85-90F weather, Isotherm? High of only 59.0F yesterday, almost 15 degrees below normal. Not impressive for late May....I was sleeping in heavy blankets last night. nobody was predicting warmth yesterday or today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 nobody was predicting warmth yesterday or today Not torch, but a few days ago, all models had yesterday and today in the mid 70's. Until we get rid of the easterly winds, we won't get sustained warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Not torch, but a few days ago, all models had yesterday and today in the mid 70's. Until we get rid of the easterly winds, we won't get sustained warmth. every model i looked at showed us being north of the warm front today. the euro never showed 80. i seriously think some of you are overplaying the supposed warmth today to make it look like a "bust", thus, you can use this "bust" to say the rest of the week won't be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Reminds me of 2008 so much, I remember buying a snoopy plush doll about one day before the heat onset in June, and seeing 850 mb maps similar to some GFS ensemble torch maps out to 7 days and beyond.. It is summer buzzcut time everyone. Time for folks to shed the emo, hippie locks. I don't know what planet you live on, but this was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 To be fair it was supposed to be in the 70s from the 21st on and we didnt come close yesterday and may not make it today. Even the day of forecasts still said low 70s. I don't doubt however that once we get into that warm sector that we'll still get the 80s as expected. every model i looked at showed us being north of the warm front today. the euro never showed 80. i seriously think some of you are overplaying the supposed warmth today to make it look like a "bust", thus, you can use this "bust" to say the rest of the week won't be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 every model i looked at showed us being north of the warm front today. the euro never showed 80. i seriously think some of you are overplaying the supposed warmth today to make it look like a "bust", thus, you can use this "bust" to say the rest of the week won't be warm Can't speak for others, but my resistance to the heat was for Tuesday through Thursday, not yesterday or today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 To be fair it was supposed to be in the 70s from the 21st on and we didnt come close yesterday and may not make it today. Even the day of forecasts still said low 70s. I don't doubt however that once we get into that warm sector that we'll still get the 80s as expected. would someone please back this up? i have not seen a model run show warmth today or yesterday. there was always a kink in the isobars to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 would someone please back this up? i have not seen a model run show warmth today or yesterday. there was always a kink in the isobars to our south The NAM has shown an area of clearing today for a few runs now and has been trying to warm Central into Northeast NJ into the mid 70's ahead of afternoon convection over Central PA. Not all that farfetched given the visible satellite imagery this morning. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&isingle=multiple&itype=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 every model i looked at showed us being north of the warm front today. the euro never showed 80. i seriously think some of you are overplaying the supposed warmth today to make it look like a "bust", thus, you can use this "bust" to say the rest of the week won't be warm I havent mentioned the word bust or made any predictions. But a few days ago, all models, including euro had yesterday and today in the low to mid 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The west-southwesterly winds on Tuesday will allow Long Island to warm into the 80's in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I havent mentioned the word bust or made any predictions. But a few days ago, all models, including euro had yesterday and today in the low to mid 70's. this is wednesday night's euro run for yesterday... please find the 70s http://www.ecmwf.int...w!2011051900!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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