Shades Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Looks like storms develop over the higher terrain of NJ/Hudson Valley and CT and drift southward. Recalling from previous times with such flows in the Spring/early Summer, places east (Nassua/Suffolk) and West of NYC have higher probabilities. Where it does, once again, they'll be slow movers and pulse-type boomers. Like clockwork... We'll see if it fills in for the city, but orography usually has a play in these flows and mitigates/precludes development right along the Hudson River/Valley down toward NYC which usually goes unscathed in these weak northerly flow setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The GFS picked up on the convection dropping south across CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 John - check out the 12z GFS at D 9-10. Although in the fantasy range, I think something like this could happen heading into early June (similar to 2008 maybe). Big Sonoran heat release (as T. Tip says) with > +20c 850s ballooning northeastward. If it verified we'd probably be talking mid 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 IMHO the first day for 80+ would be Tuesday and mostly for western and sw jersey. 00Z euro back off from the 12z euro and gfs says lots of convective debris and showers around. Def do not see 86-90 for most, if any area around nyc metro. SW jersey philly area different story. We shall see; you could be right. Today's a beauty, temps in the 75-80F range and mostly sunny. Feels great after a week of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 the euro got warmer for thurs-fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Forky, What is the precip looking like over the next 10 days on the Euro?, yesterday it was very wet. the euro got warmer for thurs-fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 This is why can't rely on op runs in the 8-10 day range. The 12z GFS has big heat ridge over Eastern half over the US. While the ECMWF has ahuge cut-off low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 John - check out the 12z GFS at D 9-10. Although in the fantasy range, I think something like this could happen heading into early June (similar to 2008 maybe). Big Sonoran heat release (as T. Tip says) with > +20c 850s ballooning northeastward. If it verified we'd probably be talking mid 90s. Yup, I posted about it a few days ago. The Sonoran heat release has pretty good support right now. I think early June lines up well with the pattern for a big time heat wave. The Euro is not quite there yet but the MREF are in relative agreement on the pattern progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The Euro has a tendency to produce large cutoff lows this time of year in the long range. It's been doing it on and off for a few weeks now in the long range and only one has come to fruition. It's ensembles offer little support for that solution...240 hr 850 temperatures are +12 C and there's a rolling ridge building east from the Central US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Violently disagree. Should be 80+ Monday through Friday; 00z Euro indicated temps Wed-Thurs will be 86-90 for most areas. One day thing? This whole week looks very warm to me, with several days +10 or greater departures. 86-90F Wednesday through Friday? Even for up here? I think you're crazy. Most local forecasts have low-mid 70s for Westchester with clouds and showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 86-90F Wednesday through Friday? Even for up here? I think you're crazy. Most local forecasts have low-mid 70s for Westchester with clouds and showers. It depends what model you at look at and believe. Euro has the warm front well north us on Thurs and Friday while the GFS has near our area. I tend to believe Euro. I think the system digging over the Mississppi Rive Valley, should help pump the heights in the East and push the warm front farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Beautiful day . Sunny and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Like clockwork... We'll see if it fills in for the city, but orography usually has a play in these flows and mitigates/precludes development right along the Hudson River/Valley down toward NYC which usually goes unscathed in these weak northerly flow setups. LOL at that pic. I hear playboy just put 57 years worth of material online recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Beautiful day . Sunny and warm the calm before the world ends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Interesting to see the divide between some here on the heat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 +RA 63.3/62 .18" rainfall Has rained here every day for the last week, horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 the calm before the world ends... It was pouring in Brooklyn, while it was sunny in Staten Island . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Interesting to see the divide between some here on the heat next week. a day or two maybe, but overall it looks like temps in the 70s next week with frequent rain chances. Memorial day weknd looks wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Not hearing any thunder with these heavier echoes in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 the storm to my NNE looks nice... i can see a full fledged anvil and flanking cumulus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 There it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 After the showers/thundershowers, you can see the fog bank/marine layer moving ashore on visible satellite... will make for a dreary Sunday... Upton also notes in their AFD that some of the fog tonight/tomorrow morning could be locally dense. The saturated ground, will only aid the fog's progression. Won't be surprised to see a dense fog advisory hoisted. Edit: Actually, upon further review of their AFD, Upton's belief is that the fog will cease advection as drier air behind the backdoor front ushers in.... I'm somewhat in contention... I don't really see this drier air, especially at the surface, and would expect widespread fog tonight. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 light rain with thunder here...It got dark quickly... edit...heavy rain with lightning/thunder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 After the showers/thundershowers, you can see the fog bank/marine layer moving ashore on visible satellite... will make for a dreary Sunday... Upton also notes in their AFD that some of the fog tonight/tomorrow morning could be locally dense. The saturated ground, will only aid the fog's progression. Won't be surprised to see a dense fog advisory hoisted. This is a family friendly forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 No, this spring wasn't exceptionally rainy, at least for my area, but it was very cloudy. And the latter is just depressing, especially when you get days on end with clouds, as we saw this spring. My guess would be about 75-80% of the period late March-mid May has been cloudy, although I don't have the stats in front of me. Did you miss out on the April rains? Trenton had over 6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 This is a family friendly forum. Noted. But its relevance stands. If moderator wants to delete image... I have no qualm with that. Anyway, I need to edit my post to account for Upton's position on the fog, now their belief is that drier air will inhibit the fog formation and only lead to a deck of stratus. The ground being saturated though, it's hard to believe we won't have fog issues overnight. Here's Upton's updated AFD: ..WOULD EXPECT MARINE/STRATUS FOG TOBEGIN ADVECTING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUEINTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.THEN...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA NOSES DOWN THE NEWENGLAND COAST A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGIONOVERNIGHT. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT PASSINGTHROUGH MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GETTING HUNG UPALONG FAR WESTERN SECTIONS DUE TO HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ITS WAKE ADRIER AND COOLER CANADIAN MARITIMES AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTOTHE REGION. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO HELP MIX OUT ANY EVENING DENSEFOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFTWOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 8th day of measurable rain back home... 05/14/2011 0.02 05/15/2011 0.61 05/16/2011 0.13 05/17/2011 0.53 05/18/2011 0.66 05/19/2011 0.15 05/20/2011 0.39 05/21/2011 0.03 Total : 2.52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 rained for holes 13-18, oh well, played through it, was fun. No thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 rained for holes 13-18, oh well, played through it, was fun. No thunder. I'll guess.....+11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I'll guess.....+11 I shot an 89 wtih the rain, not bad. First time out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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