IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I say we have a meet and greet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I agree Tom.BTW Excellent summer forecast.There is not a thing I disagree with. Thanks Andrew! Aw yeah...I was waiting for you to post this. I was talking about this a few days ago. Going to be sick to finally get into some summer weather. Yeah John I can't wait. I'm so tired of the endless cloudy days we've seen this spring. Had one good sunny week May 8th-13th, followed by 7 straight days of clouds. That's been the theme of this spring. Although it hasn't been cold, if someone did the stats I'm sure we'd be up pretty high on the list for cloudiest springs on record. Tuesday looks like the warmest shot we have next week. With 850 mb temps of about 17-18, a fairly good west to west southwest synoptic flow.. and mixing at least up to 850 mb, that would support temps in the upper 80's with full sun. I believe that Newark will have a high temp of somewhere in the 85-88 degree range on Tuesday. Agree on Tuesday probably being the warmest day, least amount of cloud cover and highest 850s. Nights should be July-like with a strong, moist SWLY flow -- probably remaining in the 70s for NYC/immediate suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 This Spring didn't seem THAT rainy to me (and I'm a heat & sun lover), with the exception of late April and this past week. A bit from ideal but it's no June 2009 by any stretch. No, this spring wasn't exceptionally rainy, at least for my area, but it was very cloudy. And the latter is just depressing, especially when you get days on end with clouds, as we saw this spring. My guess would be about 75-80% of the period late March-mid May has been cloudy, although I don't have the stats in front of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I don't think we're going to roast...there's a 1036mb high in Central Canada bringing colder air into the Northern Plains/Midwest. This -EPO configuration, although it causes the strongest below normal anomalies in the N Plains during summer due to short wavelengths, will eventually blast some cooler stuff in. Even if the front stalls out, we're dealing with a humid regime with lots of t-storms/showers, so daytime highs would be limited although nights could be muggy. Define roast. It's the last 10 days of May with average high temperatures still in the low-mid 70s for most areas. So I consider next week's temps, 80+ everyday Mon-Fri (possibly this weekend as well inland NJ), maybe even 85-90 for more than 2 days. In fact I'd be willing to bet KEWR hits 90 at some point next week; KNYC I'm not as confident about, but I expect to see most of NJ near 90 on Tuesday, which certainly is a torch at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Define roast. It's the last 10 days of May with average high temperatures still in the low-mid 70s for most areas. So I consider next week's temps, 80+ everyday Mon-Fri (possibly this weekend as well inland NJ), maybe even 85-90 for more than 2 days. In fact I'd be willing to bet KEWR hits 90 at some point next week; KNYC I'm not as confident about, but I expect to see most of NJ near 90 on Tuesday, which certainly is a torch at this time of year. the average long term May max in NYC is 88...The last week in this month makes or breaks a warm May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 the average long term May max in NYC is 88...The last week in this month makes or breaks a warm May... Yeah Unc we're about normal temp departures right now, but the way next week's looking, we could finish much above average with warm days and nights. IMO this is just a precursor to the very warm June we should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I say we have a meet and greet I already made a thread about this and will bump it...I was thinking Saturday, June 25th for dinner/drinks in Manhattan, perhaps around 7pm. What do others think about this possibility? Define roast. It's the last 10 days of May with average high temperatures still in the low-mid 70s for most areas. So I consider next week's temps, 80+ everyday Mon-Fri (possibly this weekend as well inland NJ), maybe even 85-90 for more than 2 days. In fact I'd be willing to bet KEWR hits 90 at some point next week; KNYC I'm not as confident about, but I expect to see most of NJ near 90 on Tuesday, which certainly is a torch at this time of year. I agree temperatures will be significantly above average, but I'm not seeing multiple days of 85-90F for the entire NYC metro area. I believe most of the positive anomalies will come from mild nights with cloud cover/t-storms allowing us to remain in the mid 60s. The local forecasts for Southern Westchester have Sunday in the mid 60s (below average), Monday in the mid 70s (near average), Tuesday in the low 80s (above average), and the rest of the week in the mid-upper 70s (slightly above average). I wouldn't say this constitutes a torch for most areas; NJ, of course, will be the warmest since the flow is mostly SSW, and that's a much hotter wind direction for EWR than it is for HPN or anywhere on Long Island. I do think Tuesday is a hot day with EWR approaching 90F, although the 18z GFS did cool down slightly with 850s at 18z Tuesday around 15-16C compared to the 18C 850s it was showing in prior runs. It also shows some light precipitation over the area at both 12z and 18z Tuesday due to instability ahead of the frontal boundary, so there could be some cloud contamination at times. I'm also seeing more of a tendency on the GFS to develop a wave of low pressure on that frontal boundary, which could cause Wednesday to be cooler/rainier than expected....earlier runs were really showing the cold front dying to our west (and it's a strong cold FROPA with 0C 850s entering the Northern Plains and a 1036mb high over Central Canada), but the latest runs have shown the front making a bit more progress, so that will be a big factor for the temperature forecast Wednesday. If the front completely passes us with rain showers all day Wednesday instead of stalling over the Midwest, we'd probably see highs only in the mid 60s to low 70s Wed-Fri, so that's also something to consider. However, given that the GFS sometimes overdoes the penetration of cold shots, I wouldn't be surprised if we are on the warmer side of the boundary for the vast majority of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Check what NAM has the next few day with highs in most areas for Sunday and Monday in the 50's. With the warm front staying south of the area with even the city not getting above the 60's. They most of time have a cold bias. They have been wrong with temps. Tuesday I believe most of the area will get into the warm sectored with NYC will reach at least 80 F with with 80 to 85 F near Newark and nearby NJ suburbs. Even most of LI should get well in to the 70's except eastern end may stay in the 60's with the onshore wind. Tuesday may have the best threat for thunderstorms too with the dewpoints in the 50's to near 60 but I won't surprise for midweek if a back door cold front does sweep by and ruined the midweek keep from NYC and northeastward much cooler with low clouds and fog with the threat of showers. Here are the cold bias numbers for the NAM where I believe Sunday will be cool with 60's will be more likely than 50's except for Eastern LI may struggle to reach 60. http://www.nws.noaa....tate/NY.NAM.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I feel like I've had enough of the warm temperatures. Ready for cold again. The humidity is killing me. I really need to move north. Hate this. If it could be 70/50 and sunny through September I'd be in heaven. More fog tonight. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Tuesday looks like we will see the first May readings of 80 or over for NYC and possibly Long Island if enough of a westerly component to the wind verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 6z GFS is not painting a pretty picture for the holiday weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Tuesday looks like we will see the first May readings of 80 or over for NYC and possibly Long Island if enough of a westerly component to the wind verifies. Downslope flow/compressional heating galore! First bonafide beach day of the season this Tuesday! Time to dust off the swimming trunks (bikinis and bathingsuits for the ladies, if there are any here?). Water temps are in the low 60's along the Jersey shore, and near 60 on Long Island's southern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 6z GFS is not painting a pretty picture for the holiday weekend shocker. These patterns never break down as quickly as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Nice to see the sun today. Warm temps next week, but muted from a few days ago. Yesterdays 12z euro had 3 to 4 inches of rain in the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 GFS has come in quite a bit cooler now for Tuesday. It was looking like 88-90 was possible, but lower 80s looks more realistic based on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 <b></b>shocker. These patterns never break down as quickly as advertised.<b></b><b></b><b></b><b></b>Yea.. You're right... I think it was yesterday's 0z GFS run that had 850's in the 20-24 range in the long range... Forget about that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 <b></b><b></b><b></b>Yea.. You're right... I think it was yesterday's 0z GFS run that had 850's in the 20-24 range in the long range... Forget about that now And the heat, as I have been saying, was way too aggressive. 80-85, especially western portions down to southern jersey, but approaching 90 is out and the immediate nyc metro may be stuck right around 80. It's a one day thing too it appears. Beautiful, but not a torch or heatwave by any stretch. We also have to keep an eye on the convective debris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 GFS has come in quite a bit cooler now for Tuesday. It was looking like 88-90 was possible, but lower 80s looks more realistic based on this run. AWT. trials ftw and earthlight ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 AWT. trials ftw and earthlight ftl No no no, gotta verify first, and earthlight knows his stuff and his skills are infinitely superior to mine, but what is past is prologue, and right now this spring has been wet and the forecasted torch's haven't verified, so until we see one verify, you have to be suspicious of any heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Did anyone see hail yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The HRRR has some convection popping up over the area this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The HRRR has some convection popping up over the area this afternoon: please no, I am set to finally hit the links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Tuesday looks like we will see the first May readings of 80 or over for NYC and possibly Long Island if enough of a westerly component to the wind verifies. Ouch. Look at that -- 46 in Erie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 And the heat, as I have been saying, was way too aggressive. 80-85, especially western portions down to southern jersey, but approaching 90 is out and the immediate nyc metro may be stuck right around 80. It's a one day thing too it appears. Beautiful, but not a torch or heatwave by any stretch. We also have to keep an eye on the convective debris Violently disagree. Should be 80+ Monday through Friday; 00z Euro indicated temps Wed-Thurs will be 86-90 for most areas. One day thing? This whole week looks very warm to me, with several days +10 or greater departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Violently disagree. Should be 80+ Monday through Friday; 00z Euro indicated temps Wed-Thurs will be 86-90 for most areas. One day thing? This whole week looks very warm to me, with several days +10 or greater departures. IMHO the first day for 80+ would be Tuesday and mostly for western and sw jersey. 00Z euro back off from the 12z euro and gfs says lots of convective debris and showers around. Def do not see 86-90 for most, if any area around nyc metro. SW jersey philly area different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 68 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The HRRR has some convection popping up over the area this afternoon: Looks like storms develop over the higher terrain of NJ/Hudson Valley and CT and drift southward. Recalling from previous times with such flows in the Spring/early Summer, places east (Nassua/Suffolk) and West of NYC have higher probabilities. Where it does, once again, they'll be slow movers and pulse-type boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 It's currently 75°F, I doubt we'll see 80 for sone reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The sea-breeze front is aiding some of the storms in Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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