TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Since that great stretch last spring/summer this has been an atrocious spring, mainly due to the seemingly endless days of clouds. Im still not sold on a cool summer but I do think its a near lock for being wetter than normal. If we can get into some sun as we saw yesterday this week will be very warm to hot especially tue - wed. Anyone's guess memorial day weekend. 60 / cloudy right now. I am favoring a 2009 type summer, regardless of what the pacific setup looks like right now. I think nina continues to weaken and we eventually go very very slightly nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I am favoring a 2009 type summer, regardless of what the pacific setup looks like right now. I think nina continues to weaken and we eventually go very very slightly nino. We'll see ENSo more like the prior decades of 89/99 than 2009 right now. Sensible weather more like 2008 right now or 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 So far JFK has seen 14 out of 22 days this month when the daily average wind direction has had an easterly component to it. It's pretty much par for the course with this type of blocking pattern that we have been this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Another fail of a day out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Another fail of a day out there. after yesterday, today feels even colder. A few days ago the NWS had high temps of near 80 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 after yesterday, today feels even colder. A few days ago the NWS had high temps of near 80 today. yeah, I notice the heat people aren't posting today...I wonder why. I do think tomorrow is mostly dry however, any rain from the warm front comes in over night into early AM per NAM, NMM, and ARW SIMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 yeah, I notice the heat people aren't posting today...I wonder why. I do think tomorrow is mostly dry however, any rain from the warm front comes in over night into early AM per NAM, NMM, and ARW SIMS. As much as the satellite photo I posted last night may have been offensive to some, we are being shafted today. The warmth is close-by, 80s in MD and the Delmarva. Someone could hit 90 there. The remainder of the week looks to inch this warmth northward between shortwaves/systems... I think it'll come in episodes. As many have been saying... a dominating heat is still a week or two away. Although a day (or two?) near 90 could still be realized this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 As much as the satellite photo I posted last night may have been offensive to some, we are being shafted today. The warmth is close-by, 80s in MD and the Delmarva. Someone could hit 90 there. The remainder of the week looks to inch this warmth northward between shortwaves/systems... I think it'll come in episodes. As many have been saying... a dominating heat is still a week or two away. Although a day (or two?) near 90 could still be realized this week. Nothing to support near 90 this week around nyc, maybe towrards philly and even that is a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 if we are going to get any heat the clouds must be limited...Any Sun at all this time of year will bring temperatures above average...Cloud cover could keep maximum temperatures 10 degrees below normal...I think we get at least one day before the month ends with temperatures in the 80's...Will it be enough to help temperatures end up above average for the month?...Not if we see more days like today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 yeah, I notice the heat people aren't posting today...I wonder why. I do think tomorrow is mostly dry however, any rain from the warm front comes in over night into early AM per NAM, NMM, and ARW SIMS. I was travelling all day; still disagree just as much as I did the past couple days. 12z GFS has more or less caved to the Euro. Tuesday looks very warm, probably mid 80s from NYC southwestward. Wednesday's a tricky forecast as a surface low will be bringing overnight/morning convection to the area, but temps in the clearing will be torching near 90F in MD/VA/DE. Depending on the timing, if we can get the clouds to break by mid afternoon, Wednesday's 80+ temps could definitely be salvaged. Thursday looks like an all-out torch - should be the warmest day of the week - mid to upper 80s, KEWR IMO hits 90F. Friday, cold front approaching, possibly a lot of convective debris around, but if we can get enough sun, should surpass 80F. No, this week won't be a heat wave, which was never the contention of anyone here, but it will feel quite summery, with potentially 3-4 days of 80F+ temps, one of those days (Thursday) near 90. Of course I can't speak for Long Island as they live in a different world, and SWLY winds are not favorable for big warmth there (likely 70s all week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Nothing to support near 90 this week around nyc, maybe towrards philly and even that is a stretch. If convection is more spotty on Tuesday and with little cloud debris, I could see how some isolated location in Jersey hits 90, and NYC for an 85 or thereabout. But I agree that it'll be more the exception than the rule when it comes down to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I think some folks may be overestimating the amount of clouds/debris in the warm sector this week. Looking to our west, most of the Mid-west is under sunshine save for the areas w/ convection. Heading through this week, Monday will probably be the cloudiest day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 True, but its not over yet. 3" and counting and still 10 days to go... I recorded 5.32" of rain for March, well above normal, 4.51" for April, above normal but not exceptionally so, and 2.36" so far in May. Definitely a wet spring, but nowhere near what others to the NW have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 no 90s on the euro, 80's barely into western jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 how does memorial weekend look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 In the "toity" or potty with another Maratime wedge possible with 58-64 and clouds Sat thru possibly parts of Monday. Another Backdoor during Friday. South and west of SW NJ could be near 80-85 for the weekend.. Big Heat 95 degree possible after that 5/31 to 6/3 for all except Central New England Boston and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Spring usually sucks in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I don't think anyone expected us to hang out in the mid 50's all day today. It was downright chilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Spring usually sucks in our area. Its snowed here a week ago... and that's not *that* unusual. To most people, spring here would be considered suckier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 This is the warmest day next week per the 18Z NAM. Far cry from approaching 90 or even torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I think some folks may be overestimating the amount of clouds/debris in the warm sector this week. Looking to our west, most of the Mid-west is under sunshine save for the areas w/ convection. Heading through this week, Monday will probably be the cloudiest day. I agree. Much of time will probably be dry, with enough sunny break send temps quickly. The only days I see we that will have a really tough time seeing 80+ for much of the area is Monday and Wednesday with the warm front forecast to be to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 This is the warmest day next week per the 18Z NAM. Far cry from approaching 90 or even torch. Thank goodness. I don't want them approaching 90 in July let alone spring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I think some folks may be overestimating the amount of clouds/debris in the warm sector this week. Looking to our west, most of the Mid-west is under sunshine save for the areas w/ convection. Heading through this week, Monday will probably be the cloudiest day. Well, the cloud debri for mid week isn't going to be there today dude. There is going to be a lot of impulses in the flow and plenty of convection around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 The heat may come after next weekend especially if that ridge is for real, but the calls for 90's or even high 80's around the area this week were way to premature in this pattern IMHO. Every model has backed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 The heat may come after next weekend especially if that ridge is for real, but the calls for 90's or even high 80's around the area this week were way to premature in this pattern IMHO. Every model has backed away. I dont think its hard to see how areas in NJ upto EWR could get well into the 80s with enough sun tue - thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I dont think its hard to see how areas in NJ upto EWR could get well into the 80s with enough sun tue - wed. sw jersey, yes, but that has not been my contention and is not nyc metro area. Newark gets into the 80's, yes, but max, 83-85, not 90, and Tuesday is the hotter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 sw jersey, yes, but that has not been my contention and is not nyc metro area. Newark gets into the 80's, yes, but max, 83-85, not 90, and Tuesday is the hotter day. sounds about right but its not out of reach to approach 90 even into EWR/NYC metro area if tue or thu stays sunny for a prolonged period. Beyond there the week of memorial day looks hot, we'll see if guidance sustains the ridging. That would keep pace with the 2008 analog quite well to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The heat may come after next weekend especially if that ridge is for real, but the calls for 90's or even high 80's around the area this week were way to premature in this pattern IMHO. Every model has backed away. You are like the anti-noreasteryanksfanfloodhyper85. We get it dude, it wont hit 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The weather's been on the boring side lately, so it's nice to get an argument in here at least. sw jersey, yes, but that has not been my contention and is not nyc metro area. Newark gets into the 80's, yes, but max, 83-85, not 90, and Tuesday is the hotter day. Want to spice things up and make an over/under bet out of it? I'm in a gambling mood tonight, and since you just put down your range for KEWR, I'd be willing to go over 86F for KEWR, let's say their highest temp this week. Could negotiate those numbers a bit but I'll wait for your response first. PS - the 18z NAM map you posted will be underdone by several degrees at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The weather's been on the boring side lately, so it's nice to get an argument in here at least. Want to spice things up and make an over/under bet out of it? I'm in a gambling mood tonight, and since you just put down your range for KEWR, I'd be willing to go over 86F for KEWR, let's say their highest temp this week. Could negotiate those numbers a bit but I'll wait for your response first. PS - the 18z NAM map you posted will be underdone by several degrees at least. The wind direction is SE, you need at least SSW to get the warmth into NYC and even EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.