forkyfork Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 this is wednesday night's euro run for yesterday... please find the 70s http://www.ecmwf.int...w!2011051900!!/ here's a 6 day forecast not showing 70s on sunday http://www.ecmwf.int...w!2011051700!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 call it what you want to call it, but the last 2 days (including today) in the 50's here was not forecast by anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 this is wednesday night's euro run for yesterday... please find the 70s http://www.ecmwf.int...w!2011051900!!/ Soundings showed 70's for yesterday and today. The map you posted is for 0z today. You need to see 18z today, to get the high temps. Not an 8pm map. The soundings from accu, showed 70-75 degrees for yesterday and today, a few days ago. NAM and other short term models did as well. NWS had NYC in the mid 70's for yesterday and today, as a result, a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 here's a 6 day forecast not showing 70s on sunday http://www.ecmwf.int...w!2011051700!!/ You are posting an 8pm map. Having text soundings for 18z for both days, had 70's as highs. On Thursday, the models backed off the Sunday and today warmth, after they caught on to the continued cloudiness and easterly fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 call it what you want to call it, but the last 2 days (including today) in the 50's here was not forecast by anyone... it was in the upper 50s instead of low 60s... BFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Soundings showed 70's for yesterday and today. The map you posted is for 0z today. You need to see 18z today, to get the high temps. Not an 8pm map. The soundings from accu, showed 70-75 degrees for yesterday and today, a few days ago. NAM and other short term models did as well. NWS had NYC in the mid 70's for yesterday and today, as a result, a few days. the maps show SE winds... anyone worth a damn would have known it wouldn't be in the 70's with that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Why are people so anxious for heat, enjoy the Spring were having for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 it was in the upper 50s instead of low 70s... BFD fixed-every media outlet had Sun and today being decent going back to Fri and even Sat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 the maps show SE winds... anyone worth a damn would have known it wouldn't be in the 70's with that setup Yup. Agreed. Models were underdoing the cloud coverage and thus overestimating the temperatures. By Thursday, the models caught on and adjusted their text output for high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Get ready for some big warmth next week; I think 90F is within reach for much of the area. Overall the next 5-7 days are very summery with high humidity, SWLY flows, temps in the 80s Mon-Thurs and frequent T-storm opportunities. Should be a precursor to the theme of this summer IMO: high humidity, plenty of rain, and warm temps. This is one of the only call I can find calling for 80's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Why are people so anxious for heat, enjoy the Spring were having for once. spring? what spring--days on days of overcast and 50's, low 60's will make anyone beg for anything different.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 fixed-every media outlet had Sun and today being decent going back to Fri and even Sat... NWS as well. NWS backed off starting Thursday, however. Pretty much the same time the euro backed off from the mid 70's, it was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 fixed-every media outlet had Sun and today being decent going back to Fri and even Sat... "the news forecast x" is not the same as "the official nws forecast said x" the nws dropped the 70s from the forecast by thursday and we have several hours of heating left before you can declare today a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 NWS as well. NWS backed off starting Thursday, however. Pretty much the same time the euro backed off from the mid 70's, it was showing. Upton still going with a high of 85 here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Upton still going with a high of 85 here tomorrow We are talking about yesterday and today. Models, including euro, had mid 70's as an output right up until Thursdays' 12z runs. The model busted by almost 20 degrees, from a 72 hour text output. I agree with you and everyone else. If we get sunshine tomorrow-Thursday, we should easily get into the low to mid 80's. The Easterly fetch seems like it will end tonight and we will switch south tonight and continue southerly winds, until Wednesday morning. Marine forecasts, which is what I refer to being a fishing fanatic, is calling for easterly winds again from Wednesday thru Saturday. Not only does that ruin the water quality in the sound, but as we know, it brings colder air and low cloudiness as well. I hope it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 We are talking about yesterday and today. Models, including euro, had mid 70's as an output right up until Thursdays' 12z runs. The model busted by almost 20 degrees, from a 72 hour text output. I agree with you and everyone else. If we get sunshine tomorrow-Thursday, we should easily get into the low to mid 80's. The Easterly fetch seems like it will end tonight and we will switch south tonight and continue southerly winds, until Wednesday morning. Marine forecasts, which is what I refer to being a fishing fanatic, is calling for easterly winds again from Wednesday thru Saturday. Not only does that ruin the water quality in the sound, but as we know, it brings colder air and low cloudiness as well. I hope it changes. are your text soundings raw data, or is it processed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 "the news forecast x" is not the same as "the official nws forecast said x" the nws dropped the 70s from the forecast by thursday and we have several hours of heating left before you can declare today a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 are your text soundings raw data, or is it processed? Not sure. They are the accu ones. If anyone knows, please answer. My guess is raw text output, but cant say with certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 NWS as well. NWS backed off starting Thursday, however. Pretty much the same time the euro backed off from the mid 70's, it was showing. NWS had 64F here yesterday, verified as 59F. Today they had low 70s and we're in the upper 50s...this was the forecast as of last night. The NWS has definitely been a bit warm lately, although not a total bust. We all know set-ups with east winds and cloud cover can trend colder than expected in springtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 NWS had 64F here yesterday, verified as 59F. Today they had low 70s and we're in the upper 50s...this was the forecast as of last night. The NWS has definitely been a bit warm lately, although not a total bust. We all know set-ups with east winds and cloud cover can trend colder than expected in springtime. with light rain and drizzle picking up across SE NY, SW CT And LI, we'll be lucky to see 60 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 NWS had 64F here yesterday, verified as 59F. Today they had low 70s and we're in the upper 50s...this was the forecast as of last night. The NWS has definitely been a bit warm lately, although not a total bust. We all know set-ups with east winds and cloud cover can trend colder than expected in springtime. Definitely not a bust. I would never call out NWS for a bust. They are a great office and do their best analyzing changing models. The 70's being forecasted were pre-Thursday, btw. After Thursday, euro and NWS corrected. But that is not a bust at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Accuwx has 74 today and 80s the remainder of the month. Also the predicted overnight low for tonight is mid 60s from NWS so I'm guessing we will still see a temperature jump at some point later this afternoon or evening. NWS had 64F here yesterday, verified as 59F. Today they had low 70s and we're in the upper 50s...this was the forecast as of last night. The NWS has definitely been a bit warm lately, although not a total bust. We all know set-ups with east winds and cloud cover can trend colder than expected in springtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 with light rain and drizzle picking up across SE NY, SW CT And LI, we'll be lucky to see 60 today Looking at the visible satellite, there is an area of clearing, pushing NNE, in SE PA. If that continues its push, temps can pop very quickly into the 70's, with any amount of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Cloudy and cool. Off and on showers from time to time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Shower passing through right now. Really tired of these clouds, showers, and high humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 spring? what spring--days on days of overcast and 50's, low 60's will make anyone beg for anything different.... I guess its all relative to location, out here in Jersey its been one of the best springs ever if you minus out the cutoff low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I guess its all relative to location, out here in Jersey its been one of the best springs ever if you minus out the cutoff low. I will give you that--spring S and W of NYC most years is alot better than Spring N and E of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 "the news forecast x" is not the same as "the official nws forecast said x" the nws dropped the 70s from the forecast by thursday and we have several hours of heating left before you can declare today a bust NWS had 78 in the bronx on Thursday...I was looking to buy tickets to the yankees / mets game and that was the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Definitely not a bust. I would never call out NWS for a bust. They are a great office and do their best analyzing changing models. The 70's being forecasted were pre-Thursday, btw. After Thursday, euro and NWS corrected. But that is not a bust at all. NWS had a Monday afternoon high of 73F for Dobbs Ferry last night when I checked the point-and-click forecast. I would definitely characterize that as a bust unless skies clear quickly. -RA 59.0/59 SE@4mph 0.02" rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 NWS had a Monday afternoon high of 73F for Dobbs Ferry last night when I checked the point-and-click forecast. I would definitely characterize that as a bust unless skies clear quickly. -RA 59.0/59 SE@4mph 0.02" rainfall The visible satellite continues to push the clearing NNE. Now about to hit Jersey. If it continues, it might actually pass thru us, in a couple hours. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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