earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 West-southwest winds into the city and 14 C 850 temps increasing throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I noted this in my afd last night for the website, but the problem is not the instability, it's the lack of kinematic support. The 0-6km and effective shear is lacking completely, most near term models have it below 20 kts now. There's very little to support organized convection this afternoon--we're going to need the shortwave itself to be more robust to maintain severe updrafts. The instability and thermodynamic support is fine--but it won't be an organized severe weather event without the required kinematics. It looks like effective bulk shear is decent right now though, is this forecast to weaken somewhat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The westerly wind component is such a beast this time of year--almost as much as the marine flow. Look at the 80 F temps all the way to the jersey beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 There is its...near 90 over New Jersey and towards Newark on Friday. 19C H85 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Surface CAPE is already making a comeback behind that small area of showers approaching the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The westerly wind component is such a beast this time of year--almost as much as the marine flow. Look at the 80 F temps all the way to the jersey beaches The text soundings off 3 hour NAM brings all of us up to almost 85 degrees. We cant see in between hours, so it's posible that its a little higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 those showers are weakening quickly and the clouds thinning as as the warm front lifts north and the diurnal heating kicks in. Sun is back out here. Very warm. A bit surprised at the wind--a bit breezy right now. will probably calm a bit through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 80 at Newark as of 11AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 we just hit 80/63 here with a west wind at 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 11am roundup: EWR: 80 LGA: 79 JFK: 76 NYC: 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Lol. Trials is going to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Lol. Trials is going to fail. Yeah. 80 degrees at LGA and Newark without any sunshine and now a big break in clouds advancing over us. Wouldnt be surprised if we flirted with upper 80's and even 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looks like Earthlight is spot on about the shear, however things still look favorable for some severe weather this afternoon per this latest from Mt. Holly's 11AM update... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --THE FIRST MID LEVEL IMPULSE WAS APPROACHING LATE THIS MORNING, AND IT WAS CAUSING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO CENTRAL DELAWARE AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY WAS WEAKENING AND THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY WAS MAINTAINING ITSELF. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER, THIS IMPULSE SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE LIKELY WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS, AFTER WHICH TIME THE SECOND IMPULSE APPROACHES. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE PLACE BY THE 12Z NAM. A MODIFIED IAD SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (REACHABLE FROM THE SURFACE, MODERATE AT MID LEVELS AND RESIDING TO SOME DEGREE IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION) AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WE DID USE VERY WARM MAX TEMPERATURES WHEN MODIFYING THE SOUNDING TO MATCH OUR FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT MARGINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH DO NOT DROP INSTABILITY TO NEGLIGIBLE VALUES. SHEAR IS MORE OF THE SPEED THAN DIRECTIONAL TYPE. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL IN THE WORST THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, AND SPC KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE BASIC TENOR OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS MAINTAINED. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALSO LOOKS GOOD, ALTHOUGH THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE TEMPORARILY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 If earthlight or Isotherms made a thread about my shirt,pants, and underwear being soaking wet bet 11am on Tuesday they would have been right Hot as hell here Tim and now mostly sunny 80/66. Visible shows clouds breaking up everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 There is its...near 90 over New Jersey and towards Newark on Friday. 19C H85 temps. Yep, should be nice summery pattern we're headed into over the next couple weeks John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 West-southwest winds into the city and 14 C 850 temps increasing throughout the day. It seems to me that we often wind up warmer and drier than modeled, when there when have a west or downslope flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Up to 82.3 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 11am roundup: EWR: 80 LGA: 79 JFK: 76 NYC: 75 12pm: EWR: 82 LGA: 79 NYC: 78 JFK: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 It's been 79.7 for the past 20 minutes, almost at 80. It's so humid, the little weather station says 70% which is probably true, I'm not really getting a full breath of air when I breathe lol. Edit: and just that quick it says 80.1 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 84 at the PWS in midtown. NICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Hot as hell here Tim and now mostly sunny 80/66. Visible shows clouds breaking up everywhere. Open ur pool and let's chill with alcoholic beverages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 78 and really humid . Nice spring day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Up to 84°F, there's a warm breeze too now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 opened my pool the other day. still looks like **** but it's so sweet to have it open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 opened the pool last weknd and had it basically good to go in 3 days, fastest ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I can have my bathing suit on in minutes. So just throw the invite my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Open ur pool and let's chill with alcoholic beverages Pool's been open for about a month, per usual. Like to get it cleaned up early so its ready for any torch spring days (also it takes at least 2 weeks to fix any problems). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 1:00pm update: EWR: 84 LGA: 80 JFK: 80 NYC: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 opened my pool the other day. still looks like **** but it's so sweet to have it open. The next gtg will be at your house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I just hit 80 degrees here in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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