Isotherm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Nope, and they won't. We'll see. I disagree about today and also disagree about today being the warmest day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Visible satellite shows an area of clearing pushing east through NJ. Most already have some sun poking through. We should all be mostly sunny in the next couple hours. With any amount of sun, we should all pop into the mid 80's. I'm at 75.6 and have seen nothing but overcast all morning. 2-3 hours of sunshine will shoot us into the mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Going to be difficult to get past 85 no matter what. I think Newark sees 84. It's already 77 in midtown at 9:35am without full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 We'll see. I disagree about today and also disagree about today being the warmest day of the week. Its a discussion board, if we all agreed, it would be worthless. This break in the clouds coming in now is to be followed by more cloudiness over PA and there are showers breaking out to the west too. I just don't see the full sunshine needed to really break through. Also, no one is going to be able to be right about the whole area. Many people are going to stay very cool and some are going to almost torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm at 75.6 and have seen nothing but overcast all morning. 2-3 hours of sunshine will shoot us into the mid 80s. Yup. Easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm at 75.6 and have seen nothing but overcast all morning. 2-3 hours of sunshine will shoot us into the mid 80s. Not my point, i think 84-85 for newark on to the s and w where you are is doable, and have said so. Its the over 85 approaching 90 which is beyond reach, IMHO. Anyway, enough posting about what will happen, we will know in a few hours, I hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Per the NAM, Friday is the warmest day of the week, just in time for Memorial Day Weekend, looks dry also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 OVC 69.4/69 Another day where clouds are trying to win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Per the NAM, Friday is the warmest day of the week, just in time for Memorial Day Weekend, looks dry also With a flow SE off the water, very doubtfull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 With a flow SE off the water, very doubtfull. The water temps just beyond the NY harbor are at about 60 F now. That should help limit the effect of the sea breeze to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 already up at 78 at 10am. After a brief area of clouds over Eastern PA there is a big area of clearing expanding towards the region. Every model shows this. It should not be hard for Newark to get past 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 already up at 78 at 10am. After a brief area of clouds over Eastern PA there is a big area of clearing expanding towards the region. Every model shows this. It should not be hard for Newark to get past 85. Yep, the CIN in place should help ensure that the activity moving through this morning remains weak. There should be plenty of time for higher CAPE values to be realized this afternoon as the front approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Sun is out here now, feels awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 It will be interesting to see what kind of effect the clouds over PA have on everything--they seem to be moving fast to enough to get out of the way. With the breaks of sun ahead of it, some areas could actually get to 80 F before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 It will be interesting to see what kind of effect the clouds over PA have on everything--they seem to be moving fast to enough to get out of the way. With the breaks of sun ahead of it, some areas could actually get to 80 F before noon. Upper 80's are doable if we get 2-3 hours of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 It will be interesting to see what kind of effect the clouds over PA have on everything--they seem to be moving fast to enough to get out of the way. With the breaks of sun ahead of it, some areas could actually get to 80 F before noon. U think us in suffolk county on long island today could hit the upper 70's still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 CIN is starting to break down and a pocket of about 1000 J/KG is over NE NJ and SE NY just ahead of that area of showers. There is some weakening of the instability behind it but it should quickly recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 It will be interesting to see what kind of effect the clouds over PA have on everything--they seem to be moving fast to enough to get out of the way. With the breaks of sun ahead of it, some areas could actually get to 80 F before noon. These are mid-high level clouds that are actually thinning/breaking apart (cloud tops are warming as they approach NJ)... and as you noted, they are moving quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 CIN is starting to break down and a pocket of about 1000 J/KG is over NE NJ and SE NY just ahead of that area of showers. There is some weakening of the instability behind it but it should quickly recover. I don't see the showers making it into our area, per satellite trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 It's currently 77.7°F here, the fog/haze is still around but it died down, I can see the sky a bit. Reminds me of a nice Summer morning. *60 thumbs up* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 12z NAM doesnt bring any thunderstorm or even rain to anyone in our area today. Only areas well south by DC get into the organized storms, according to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 76 over here Good bet that we past 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 All morning showers moving in from the Delmarva have broken apart/dissipated as they approached southern NJ, and they were much more robust than the batch currently in Eastern PA. I'd expect the same trend to continue for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 12z NAM doesnt bring any thunderstorm or even rain to anyone in our area today. Only areas well south by DC get into the organized storms, according to the NAM. I think its having a difficult time with the level of instability. Surface CAPE is already in excess of 500 J/KG west of the Hudson river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I think its having a difficult time with the level of instability. Surface CAPE is already in excess of 500 J/KG west of the Hudson river. I noted this in my afd last night for the website, but the problem is not the instability, it's the lack of kinematic support. The 0-6km and effective shear is lacking completely, most near term models have it below 20 kts now. There's very little to support organized convection this afternoon--we're going to need the shortwave itself to be more robust to maintain severe updrafts. The instability and thermodynamic support is fine--but it won't be an organized severe weather event without the required kinematics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Humid and cloudy here. Sun was out for a total 5 min so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 All morning showers moving in from the Delmarva have broken apart/dissipated as they approached southern NJ, and they were much more robust than the batch currently in Eastern PA. I'd expect the same trend to continue for the time being. The southern end of the clouds, as you noted, is breaking apart significantly as the diurnal heating begins to really have an effect on the atmosphere throughout the northeast. You can see the higher clouds over PA thinning significantly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The new NAM surface temps for later today are a good bit warmer than the 06z run especially on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 If earthlight or Isotherms made a thread about my shirt,pants, and underwear being soaking wet bet 11am on Tuesday they would have been right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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