Winter returns with a vengeance thread again

[CoastalWx]

SREFs have pretty high 1" probs for a good chunk of sne. Eastern areas battle daylight, but maybe some sn on grassy areas?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Kind of like a 14-2 Patriots season

Or more aptly, 18-0.

Of course, this would have to occur during the middle of the day.....useless.

[Typhoon Tip]

To each is own I suppose but ...I don't see how anyone in their right mind could actually "want" it to snow again this spring. Why? I think if eyes could open and more than just cerebralize the futility, but truly understand the futility on a personal level, yesterday's heat was ...or rather would have registered in heads, a thrilling reminder of an inevitability that brings it's own form of excitements. Any snow at this point robs from that.

I mean, this teetering with literal craziness here folks. They should change the forum from The American Weather Forums to, "The Small Segment Of Population That Are O.C.D. Snow Cooks", because this has much less to do about weather, and waaaaaay more to do about hyper-compulsion for snow. The snow pack is gone outside of shade and elevations, which is more than 50% coverage obliterated down to bare Earth. Flowers are trying to knife up and buds are swelling on sugar maples. Yesterday I saw my first bumble bee of the fragile, infant warm season. I'm telling you, an outsider with no history would think snow is all that matters around here - perhaps that's just the way it goes.

Snow is just one aspect of weather. Whether speaking intellectually or even from the murkier emotional points of view, sound minds would consider all aspects, embraced equally. Otherwise, none of this has anything to do with the weather - the weather just becomes a limo service to you, a 'whether it snows or not delivery system', in actuality.

Having said that, sure ... if an April 1997 redux took place I would be just as excited, but it would have much less to do with snow, and more to do with the grandeur of the anomaly as a whole.

* * * * *

I would have to think going against the anti-ECMWF model appeals is wisest course for anything inside of 96 hours, particularly when the dynamics involved are even partially in the denser sounding domain. Last night's 00z initialization had that advantage. Interestingly, the NAM and ECM are at odds for dynamics over land, so perhaps the partiality of the sampling does/did affect one or the other runs. The ECM's extra double top-secret variable system for initializations would probably get the nod in those cases, however. Both the NAO and PNA are becoming more favorable for southerly tracks in time, so that adds to the corrective measure.

So that unfortunately for 95% of the population means we probably get accumulating snow ...perhaps plowable N of the Mass Pike from this next system.

[ineedsnow]

ive been in spring mode but 1 or 2 more events would be nice!

SREFs have pretty high 1" probs for a good chunk of sne. Eastern areas battle daylight, but maybe some sn on grassy areas?

[40/70 Benchmark]

To each is own I suppose but ...I don't see how anyone in their right mind could actually "want" it to snow again this spring. Why? I think if eyes could open and more than just cerebralize the futility, but truly understand the futility on a personal level, yesterday's heat was ...or rather would have registered in heads, a thrilling reminder of an inevitability that brings it's own form of excitements. Any snow at this point robs from that.

I mean, this teetering with literal craziness here folks. They should change the forum from The American Weather Forums to, "The Small Segment Of Population That Are O.C.D. Snow Cooks", because this has much less to do about weather, and waaaaaay more to do about hyper-compulsion for snow. The snow pack is gone outside of shade and elevations, which is more than 50% coverage obliterated down to bare Earth. Flowers are trying to knife up and buds are swelling on sugar maples. Yesterday I saw my first bumble bee of the fragile, infant warm season. I'm telling you, an outsider with no history would think snow is all that matters around here - perhaps that's just the way it goes.

Snow is just one aspect of weather. Whether speaking intellectually or even from the murkier emotional points of view, sound minds would consider all aspects, embraced equally. Otherwise, none of this has anything to do with the weather - the weather just becomes a limo service to you, a 'whether it snows or not delivery system', in actuality.

Having said that, sure ... if an April 1997 redux took place I would be just as excited, but it would have much less to do with snow, and more to do with the grandeur of the anomaly as a whole.

* * * * *

I would have to think going against the anti-ECMWF model appeals is wisest course for anything inside of 96 hours, particularly when the dynamics involved are even partially in the denser sounding domain. Last night's 00z initialization had that advantage. Interestingly, the NAM and ECM are at odds for dynamics over land, so perhaps the partiality of the sampling does/did affect one or the other runs. The ECM's extra double top-secret variable system for initializations would probably get the nod in those cases, however. Both the NAO and PNA are becoming more favorable for southerly tracks in time, so that adds to the corrective measure.

So that unfortunately for 95% of the population means we probably get accumulating snow ...perhaps plowable N of the Mass Pike from this next system.

John, to be fair, it's almost as "cooky" to expect wx like yesterday, consistently at this time of the year....around here, anyway.

[Ginx snewx]

John, to be fair, it's almost as "cooky" to expect wx like yesterday, consistently at this time of the year....around here, anyway.

Exactly, some of us OCD kooks like snow? Ya think? Weird write up, rather nonsensical on a weather board where the great majority are snow freaks.

[HoarfrostHubb]

John, to be fair, it's almost as "cooky" to expect wx like yesterday, consistently at this time of the year....around here, anyway.

I like to cook. So I am "cooky"

I love snow, so I am "kooky"

Anyway, if it snows, yea! If it is warm, yea! As long as it is not 75+ and muggy

I prefer snow until April 3rd (skiing at WaWa until then), then let spring come with a vengence.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Exactly, some of us OCD kooks like snow? Ya think? Weird write up, rather nonsensical on a weather board where the great majority are snow freaks.

You do know Tippy wrote it...

[CoastalWx]

Spring wx is gone for the next 10-14 days. Sub 522 thicknesses with -15C 850 temps pretty much neglect any tulip dancing. For the time being, might as well see if we can add any moisture to the atmosphere, but those temps near 70 are going bye-bye for a while.

[Ginx snewx]

You do know Tippy wrote it...

Huh? Of course, what do you mean?

[Ginx snewx]

Spring wx is gone for the next 10-14 days. Sub 522 thicknesses with -15C 850 temps pretty much neglect any tulip dancing. For the time being, might as well see if we can add any moisture to the atmosphere, but those temps near 70 are going bye-bye for a while.

Like,^ In a kooky OCD kinda way.

[Typhoon Tip]

John, to be fair, it's almost as "cooky" to expect wx like yesterday, consistently at this time of the year....around here, anyway.

Be fair - I wasn't speaking to warm weather zealots. There isn't enough of them around to warrant that concern.

Ginx, I respectfully disagree. You mentioned "odd post for weather board" - therein is the problem: it's not a weather board if it is so heavily and seemingly ONLY faceted in the singular and oft' coming across as irrationally obsessed with the aspect of snow to the point of neurotic. "Weather" involves everything.

This is a snow board. Hey, that's fine - just nice to know what it is one's really involved in. More power to a snow board!

[HoarfrostHubb]

Exactly, some of us OCD kooks like snow? Ya think? Weird write up, rather nonsensical on a weather board where the great majority are snow freaks.

This

[Damage In Tolland]

To each is own I suppose but ...I don't see how anyone in their right mind could actually "want" it to snow again this spring. Why? I think if eyes could open and more than just cerebralize the futility, but truly understand the futility on a personal level, yesterday's heat was ...or rather would have registered in heads, a thrilling reminder of an inevitability that brings it's own form of excitements. Any snow at this point robs from that.

I mean, this teetering with literal craziness here folks. They should change the forum from The American Weather Forums to, "The Small Segment Of Population That Are O.C.D. Snow Cooks", because this has much less to do about weather, and waaaaaay more to do about hyper-compulsion for snow. The snow pack is gone outside of shade and elevations, which is more than 50% coverage obliterated down to bare Earth. Flowers are trying to knife up and buds are swelling on sugar maples. Yesterday I saw my first bumble bee of the fragile, infant warm season. I'm telling you, an outsider with no history would think snow is all that matters around here - perhaps that's just the way it goes.

Snow is just one aspect of weather. Whether speaking intellectually or even from the murkier emotional points of view, sound minds would consider all aspects, embraced equally. Otherwise, none of this has anything to do with the weather - the weather just becomes a limo service to you, a 'whether it snows or not delivery system', in actuality.

Having said that, sure ... if an April 1997 redux took place I would be just as excited, but it would have much less to do with snow, and more to do with the grandeur of the anomaly as a whole.

* * * * *

I would have to think going against the anti-ECMWF model appeals is wisest course for anything inside of 96 hours, particularly when the dynamics involved are even partially in the denser sounding domain. Last night's 00z initialization had that advantage. Interestingly, the NAM and ECM are at odds for dynamics over land, so perhaps the partiality of the sampling does/did affect one or the other runs. The ECM's extra double top-secret variable system for initializations would probably get the nod in those cases, however. Both the NAO and PNA are becoming more favorable for southerly tracks in time, so that adds to the corrective measure.

So that unfortunately for 95% of the population means we probably get accumulating snow ...perhaps plowable N of the Mass Pike from this next system.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VIVSHOQboo&feature=related

[Ginx snewx]

Be fair - I wasn't speaking to warm weather zealots. There isn't enough of them around to warrant that concern.

Ginx, I respectfully disagree. You mentioned "odd post for weather board" - therein is the problem: it's not a weather board if it is so heavily and seemingly ONLY faceted in the singular and oft' coming across as irrationally obsessed with the aspect of snow to the point of neurotic. "Weather" involves everything.

This is a snow board. Hey, that's fine - just nice to know what it is one's really involved in. More power to a snow board!

That's BS John, we are fanatical weather observers and post on all aspects of weather all year long. The core group here posts about everything. Yea a majority of us post about snow in a thread called winter with a vengeance , ya think? Winter hits from time to time in March and April, fact. A lot of us love snow anytime, fact. Most of us are obsessed with snow weather only, falsehood.

[CoastalWx]

Be fair - I wasn't speaking to warm weather zealots. There isn't enough of them around to warrant that concern.

Ginx, I respectfully disagree. You mentioned "odd post for weather board" - therein is the problem: it's not a weather board if it is so heavily and seemingly ONLY faceted in the singular and oft' coming across as irrationally obsessed with the aspect of snow to the point of neurotic. "Weather" involves everything.

This is a snow board. Hey, that's fine - just nice to know what it is one's really involved in. More power to a snow board!

Hey if we had 60s and 70s, I'd be talking about that too, but lets be fair here...that won't be back for a while.

The real kick in the nads could be a cold and dry pattern after Monday. That's almost as bad as drizzle and 40F. My point is that we might as well see what's coming down the pipe here, but of course keep realistic expectations.

[Typhoon Tip]

That's BS John, we are fanatical weather observers and post on all aspects of weather all year long. The core group here posts about everything. Yea a majority of us post about snow in a thread called winter with a vengeance , ya think? Winter hits from time to time in March and April, fact. A lot of us love snow anytime, fact. Most of us are obsessed with snow weather only, falsehood.

Well, it doesn't come across that way Ginx. Sorry, it doesn't.

I introduced a Met buddy to this site recently and he said after a couple of days that he wasn't interested because it didn't really get into Meteorology so much as this snow talk. I was embarrassed as someone that has spent time delivering analytical discussions for the forum in the past, and then wondering what I have been contributing for.

I do see your point though that this is a winter thread. Perhaps taking a snap shot of the posting behavior in July might differ - but I suspect a lot of the dialogue will shift to winter outlooks instead. We'll see.

[Ginx snewx]

Hey if we had 60s and 70s, I'd be talking about that too, but lets be fair here...that won't be back for a while.

The real kick in the nads could be a cold and dry pattern after Monday. That's almost as bad as drizzle and 40F. My point is that we might as well see what's coming down the pipe here, but of course keep realistic expectations.

Like you and Will pointed out things can pop at anytime with little warning this time of year, at least we have flipped the pattern. I told Ray on FB last night, seems a 6 week pattern is what has happened over the past 5 months. We flip now at the worst time for spring tulip chasers but hopefully flip back to warm phase just in time for May flowers and summer and then the next flip does not matter only to allow TS up the coast.

[Logan11]

The NAM gets the snow in here by 12Z on Monday so it should start cold after a night to chill down....

SREFs have pretty high 1" probs for a good chunk of sne. Eastern areas battle daylight, but maybe some sn on grassy areas?

[Ginx snewx]

Well, it doesn't come across that way Ginx. Sorry, it doesn't.

I introduced a Met buddy to this site recently and he said after a couple of days that he wasn't interested because it didn't really get into Meteorology so much as this snow talk. I was embarrassed as someone that has spent time delivering analytical discussions for the forum in the past, and then wondering what I have been contributing for.

I do see your point though that this is a winter thread. Perhaps taking a snap shot of the posting behavior in July might differ - but I suspect a lot of the dialogue will shift to winter outlooks instead. We'll see.

Met.geo.boring would be a better site for him. When real action is going on I would take the info I get from here over any board in the entire world, seriously. I have real use professionally for the insight year round found here. Embarrassed? Sh it, man up. There are different threads all over the main board and regional boards discussing any aspect of weather you want. To take a pot shot at us in a winter thread because we are talking about cold and snow, cmon dude, your a good guy but it's us man.

[Collinsville]

Not much on radar but on my walk I had a stiff North wind with sprinkles then got some pingers in the face

[CoastalWx]

Well, it doesn't come across that way Ginx. Sorry, it doesn't.

I introduced a Met buddy to this site recently and he said after a couple of days that he wasn't interested because it didn't really get into Meteorology so much as this snow talk. I was embarrassed as someone that has spent time delivering analytical discussions for the forum in the past, and then wondering what I have been contributing for.

I do see your point though that this is a winter thread. Perhaps taking a snap shot of the posting behavior in July might differ - but I suspect a lot of the dialogue will shift to winter outlooks instead. We'll see.

Your buddy probably would be impressed at the disco that goes on during winter events...your thoughts included of course.

It's a time of year that is relatively boring. When the tstm threats and tropics heat up, I think you'll see more met discussion, but there isn't too much occurring right now. Maybe that changes if the GFS agrees with the euro in about 1 hr..lol.

For now, we just BS and sort of shoot the breeze, since we all know each other and are rather friendly.

[CoastalWx]

The NAM gets the snow in here by 12Z on Monday so it should start cold after a night to chill down....

Some decent 4" probs for you.

[Logan11]

Some of us just love snow.... ANY snow, cold fresh air, the beautiful white landscape and snow laden trees, the fun of any winter wx event and overachieving even it means 4 inches versus 2 inches. It is all fun! I hate mild wx, bugs, mud, the strong oppressive sun angle etc....

And I also take a certain perverse pleasure in watching all the 'normal' people b**ch and gripe about snow in late March and April. LOL and saying I told you so.

You are right about me not being truly multi-dimensional when it comes to wx. I can't help it ...just find winter wx much more compelling. My interest is about 2/3rd winter wx and 1/3rd the rest. I like tropical cyclones also....

To each is own I suppose but ...I don't see how anyone in their right mind could actually "want" it to snow again this spring. Why? I think if eyes could open and more than just cerebralize the futility, but truly understand the futility on a personal level, yesterday's heat was ...or rather would have registered in heads, a thrilling reminder of an inevitability that brings it's own form of excitements. Any snow at this point robs from that.

I mean, this teetering with literal craziness here folks. They should change the forum from The American Weather Forums to, "The Small Segment Of Population That Are O.C.D. Snow Cooks", because this has much less to do about weather, and waaaaaay more to do about hyper-compulsion for snow. The snow pack is gone outside of shade and elevations, which is more than 50% coverage obliterated down to bare Earth. Flowers are trying to knife up and buds are swelling on sugar maples. Yesterday I saw my first bumble bee of the fragile, infant warm season. I'm telling you, an outsider with no history would think snow is all that matters around here - perhaps that's just the way it goes.

Snow is just one aspect of weather. Whether speaking intellectually or even from the murkier emotional points of view, sound minds would consider all aspects, embraced equally. Otherwise, none of this has anything to do with the weather - the weather just becomes a limo service to you, a 'whether it snows or not delivery system', in actuality.

Having said that, sure ... if an April 1997 redux took place I would be just as excited, but it would have much less to do with snow, and more to do with the grandeur of the anomaly as a whole.

* * * * *

I would have to think going against the anti-ECMWF model appeals is wisest course for anything inside of 96 hours, particularly when the dynamics involved are even partially in the denser sounding domain. Last night's 00z initialization had that advantage. Interestingly, the NAM and ECM are at odds for dynamics over land, so perhaps the partiality of the sampling does/did affect one or the other runs. The ECM's extra double top-secret variable system for initializations would probably get the nod in those cases, however. Both the NAO and PNA are becoming more favorable for southerly tracks in time, so that adds to the corrective measure.

So that unfortunately for 95% of the population means we probably get accumulating snow ...perhaps plowable N of the Mass Pike from this next system.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hey if we had 60s and 70s, I'd be talking about that too, but lets be fair here...that won't be back for a while.

The real kick in the nads could be a cold and dry pattern after Monday. That's almost as bad as drizzle and 40F. My point is that we might as well see what's coming down the pipe here, but of course keep realistic expectations.

Yea I here you.

You know what made last spring special - for me anyway - was how the -NAO persistence began to break down at the end of February, and as the blocking collapsed S, it took 2 weeks to do it (in which time we had the 3 big rain events), but then an interesting thing happened. The block more than less got absorbed into the west Atlantic ridge medium. From that point forward the ridge would do these 1-2 week oscillations from the western OV to the more Bermuda position, back and forth. That set up the summer pattern, that modality in mid spring, such that our weather ranged from hot and dry, to warm and humid with convection depending on which end of the oscillation we were in.

I have noticed this year to year as I have gotten older and now build a bank of actual experiences that if you take the direction of changing pattern in mid spring, the ensuing summer tends to end up there. If you are transitioning into a cool cut-offy (fun word) pattern, you end up with cool pool aloft and convection like 2008 and 2009. If you are transitioning into a Bermuda ridge like pattern, you tend to end up hot that summer. I haven't studied this in any statistical verification but I think it would be worth it to try.

In any event, it will be interesting for me in about 2 weeks where the current arriving -NAO goes... to see where the block begins to evolve as we head into mid spring.

[Mr Torchey]

Some of us just love snow.... ANY snow, cold fresh air, the beautiful white landscape and snow laden trees, the fun of any winter wx event and overachieving even it means 4 inches versus 2 inches. It is all fun! I hate mild wx, bugs, mud, the strong oppressive sun angle etc....

And I also take a certain perverse pleasure in watching all the 'normal' people b**ch and gripe about snow in late March and April. LOL and saying I told you so.

You are right about me not being truly multi-dimensional when it comes to wx. I can't help it ...just find winter wx much more comprelling. My interest is about 2/3rd winter wx and 1/3rd the rest. I like tropical cyclones also....

How warm did you get yesterday, I know andys boss had 60 earlier this week, did that come to fruition? Almost 80 here!

Mostly sunny

48 on our way to the beautiful 50's!!

Another classic.

[CoastalWx]

Yea I here you.

You know what made last spring special - for me anyway - was how the -NAO persistence began to break down at the end of February, and as the blocking collapsed S, it took 2 weeks to do it (in which time we had the 3 big rain events), but then an interesting thing happened. The block more than less got absorbed into the west Atlantic ridge medium. From that point forward the ridge would do these 1-2 week oscillations from the western OV to the more Bermuda position, back and forth. That set up the summer pattern, that modality in mid spring, such that our weather ranged from hot and dry, to warm and humid with convection depending on which end of the oscillation we were in.

I have noticed this year to year as I have gotten older and now build a bank of actual experiences that if you take the direction of changing pattern in mid spring, the ensuing summer tends to end up there. If you are transitioning into a cool cut-offy (fun word) pattern, you end up with cool pool aloft and convection like 2008 and 2009. If you are transitioning into a Bermuda ridge like pattern, you tend to end up hot that summer. I haven't studied this in any statistical verification but I think it would be worth it to try.

In any event, it will be interesting for me in about 2 weeks where the current arriving -NAO goes... to see where the block begins to evolve as we head into mid spring.

That's interesting you mentioned that, because I had a similar discussion with a met about that. There might be a correlation to a winter with no SSW and a flip to a +NAO....and summer. In other words, there is the chance the NAO is + this summer. Like you said, we'll see what the NAO does this Spring, but as the atmosphere begins to adjust and get towards a more stable climo pattern for the summer...it may make it more difficult to flip NAO signs later in the Spring. Just a thought anyways.

[Logan11]

I have to get my mom to ALB for a flight to MCO at 7:30 AM .. Things look a bit interesting in that time frame....

Some decent 4" probs for you.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yea I here you.

You know what made last spring special - for me anyway - was how the -NAO persistence began to break down at the end of February, and as the blocking collapsed S, it took 2 weeks to do it (in which time we had the 3 big rain events), but then an interesting thing happened. The block more than less got absorbed into the west Atlantic ridge medium. From that point forward the ridge would do these 1-2 week oscillations from the western OV to the more Bermuda position, back and forth. That set up the summer pattern, that modality in mid spring, such that our weather ranged from hot and dry, to warm and humid with convection depending on which end of the oscillation we were in.

I have noticed this year to year as I have gotten older and now build a bank of actual experiences that if you take the direction of changing pattern in mid spring, the ensuing summer tends to end up there. If you are transitioning into a cool cut-offy (fun word) pattern, you end up with cool pool aloft and convection like 2008 and 2009. If you are transitioning into a Bermuda ridge like pattern, you tend to end up hot that summer. I haven't studied this in any statistical verification but I think it would be worth it to try.

In any event, it will be interesting for me in about 2 weeks where the current arriving -NAO goes... to see where the block begins to evolve as we head into mid spring.

I'm thinking at this point spring will be here to stay.

I do love your posts and I hope I don't offend you if/when I disagree. You have more met knowledge in your weenie than I have in my entire self

[CoastalWx]

I have to get my mom to ALB for a flight to MCO at 7:30 AM .. Things look a bit interesting in that time frame....

It could be, but I would guess maybe a delay at the worst. Might be a good weenie drive to compare your area at 1000' and ALB.