weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 ' Your trolling needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It wasn't a freak band. Looks like widespread 2-3" from ORH-BOS on north to the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 UKMET is going the GFS route. I think we have increased chances now late week. That extreme Canadian Cold may bleed in JUST in time. NAM continues to look quite warm at 84 hours... 6z DGEX was right in line with the EURO and 12z NAM continues that way. I think the 00z GGEM looks like a nice middle ground solution. That massive trough digging down the west coast should pump the heights in the SE a bit more than the GFS has... that seems to be why other models are further NW. More ridging in the SE and less confluence over NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's a race as that boundary sags south. Man that would be nice. It would be a mix to snow event for us. Something about a significant system with p type issues FRONT loaded always intrigues me and reminds me of a great Marches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I figure it will also depend upon how much energy comes out late week. Too intense and it cuts because we don't have a protective block. Just right and it's a decent event.... It is all about luck...... It's a race as that boundary sags south. Man that would be nice. It would be a mix to snow event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 UKMET is going the GFS route. I think we have increased chances now late week. That extreme Canadian Cold may bleed in JUST in time. Yes. That Canadian high is the final arbiter of the track. seems to have a good push and is what is forcing the disturbance underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM continues to look quite warm at 84 hours... 6z DGEX was right in line with the EURO and 12z NAM continues that way. I think the 00z GGEM looks like a nice middle ground solution. That massive trough digging down the west coast should pump the heights in the SE a bit more than the GFS has... that seems to be why other models are further NW. More ridging in the SE and less confluence over NNE. Looks to be a fine line here, On the fri-sat storm, GFS would be a fringe job, Sunday looks like it could be a decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM continues to look quite warm at 84 hours... 6z DGEX was right in line with the EURO and 12z NAM continues that way. I think the 00z GGEM looks like a nice middle ground solution. That massive trough digging down the west coast should pump the heights in the SE a bit more than the GFS has... that seems to be why other models are further NW. More ridging in the SE and less confluence over NNE. My point is that UKMET may be moving in that direction so we'll see about the Euro. NAM is warm. DGEX is worthless warm, cold, summer, fall, winter, spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It wasn't a freak band. Looks like widespread 2-3" from ORH-BOS on north to the NH border. I should have downgraded to 2-4", but I was stubborn.....HATE downgrading because it implies a significant error in the previous thought process. Always better to upgrade. Always room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Godamn that 12z GFS blows for up here and down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I thought you took our reports from here. I send mine in but they do not seem to make it. Anyway 1.75 new here Hi Steve! Not supposed to take them from here, but I know Kevin is a spotter for us. He usually sends it via web spotter report, so I see it here and there. Kevin just sent it in...2.4"!! I don't see a report there from you, though, on our system. Give it a shot again. Thanks! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It wasn't a freak band. Looks like widespread 2-3" from ORH-BOS on north to the NH border. I'm just going by NOAA's statement from a few minutes ago. THE BEST LIFT AND LOW LEVEL ENERGY REMAINED ACROSS SW CT INTO N NJ NEAR THE H850 WARM FRONT. NOTED SOME REPORTS OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THERE. HIGHEST REPORTS FOR OUR AREA WERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...BUT MOST REPORTS WERE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SO FAR. STILL NOTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS N MA INTO S NH...CENTERING AROUND ROUTE 2...WITH ANOTHER SMALLER BAND FORMING ACROSS SE MA. EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW MORE LOCATIONS RECEIVE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW. HOWEVER... BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND REPORTS RECEIVED...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Actually I think Ray thought this out very well, there was going to be a fronto band north of the main axis, showed up well on all models. I thought I would be in it actually thats why I went with 4 here.As far as getting excited by 2 inches, well hell yea, we do not get 200 inches a year and just went through a dry spell so the refresher looks awesome. My daughter came home from Johnson State last night in the snow, had a rough drive as they left at the worst possible time, ah girls...... Yeah, my apologies to Ray. I didn't realize that he was thinking about the fronto bands... figured he had 3-6" from several days ago and decided to just ride it out and get lucky. Good call dude. Oh hey I'm just as excited over my 1-2" of snow... it is just funny how you have a thaw and all you crave are those little white flakes. You're daughter must be having a great winter in Johnson... they've had some great snow this season and I'm sure she knows all about the near-daily dusting-2" from snow showers, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Godamn that 12z GFS blows for up here and down there No it doesn't. It gives a decent snow event to many in SNE and certainly for your home base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think Euro comes towards it. UKMET appears to be doing that this run and that often is a precursor on the Euro but no guarantee. GFS is using EPO to do the deed. It won't be 50s and rainy imo. Hope not....but how many times have we seen the GFS/UKie in the cold suppressed camp..and the Euro in the warm ,rainy one? The answer is alot..and guess which one always wins in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hi Steve! Not supposed to take them from here, but I know Kevin is a spotter for us. He usually sends it via web spotter report, so I see it here and there. Kevin just sent it in...2.4"!! I don't see a report there from you, though, on our system. Give it a shot again. Thanks! --Turtle I just sent one, but I'm a mere "General Public" peasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It wasn't a freak band. Looks like widespread 2-3" from ORH-BOS on north to the NH border. Just enough WAA and frontogenesis in the 850 to 700 layer...probably even higher than that. Note how the wind vectors converge over ne mass at 850. That probably extends a little higher up to. Indicative of frontogenesis and deformation. Weak lift over ne mass and cstl Nh and ME. Combine that with heavy heavy RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My point is that UKMET may be moving in that direction so we'll see about the Euro. NAM is warm. DGEX is worthless warm, cold, summer, fall, winter, spring. Oh I know the DGEX is worthless, but I tend to think it has some value being a continuation of the NAM and that it has been agreeing with the EURO. I know its not the same as the ETA/EURO double E rule, but it always makes me nervous when meso-scale models start agreeing with the superior resolution of the EURO. What are they seeing that the GFS isn't? EURO and NAM would imply mix or rain even up here... I'd rather this go south and hit SNE than bring rain up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Up to 87.2 YTD as we creep closer to 100 FTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hope not....but how many times have we seen the GFS/UKie in the cold suppressed camp..and the Euro in the warm ,rainy one? The answer is alot..and guess which one always wins in the end We often see a compromise of some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's a race as that boundary sags south. Man that would be nice. It would be a mix to snow event for us. You guys will love the clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm just going by NOAA's statement from a few minutes ago. THE BEST LIFT AND LOW LEVEL ENERGY REMAINED ACROSS SW CT INTO N NJ NEAR THE H850 WARM FRONT. NOTED SOME REPORTS OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THERE. HIGHEST REPORTS FOR OUR AREA WERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...BUT MOST REPORTS WERE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SO FAR. Thanks for reading my AFD! Just sent a new Public Information Statement (PNS) with totals we have so far. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Up to 87.2 YTD as we creep closer to 100 FTY I already conceded to you....just want triple digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Oh I know the DGEX is worthless, but I tend to think it has some value being a continuation of the NAM and that it has been agreeing with the EURO. I know its not the same as the ETA/EURO double E rule, but it always makes me nervous when meso-scale models start agreeing with the superior resolution of the EURO. What are they seeing that the GFS isn't? Well if Euro is the same at 12Z, then that point is well taken. But we don't know yet for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Just enough WAA and frontogenesis in the 850 to 700 layer...probably even higher than that. Note how the wind vectors converge over ne mass at 850. That probably extends a little higher up to. Indicative of frontogenesis and deformation. Weak lift over ne mass and cstl Nh and ME. Combine that with heavy heavy RH. Whoops...here is the 700 lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It wasn't a freak band. Looks like widespread 2-3" from ORH-BOS on north to the NH border. It was just N of ORH where it set up. Most of the time Will was on the S edge and I was south of it. I wouldnt be surprised if N worcester gets 2.5 while I got 1.8. Not a big difference, but with totals that small you can tell where the band set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hi Steve! Not supposed to take them from here, but I know Kevin is a spotter for us. He usually sends it via web spotter report, so I see it here and there. Kevin just sent it in...2.4"!! I don't see a report there from you, though, on our system. Give it a shot again. Thanks! --Turtle Done, whats up with all the error messages on radar etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No it doesn't. It gives a decent snow event to many in SNE and certainly for your home base. BL looks warm to me right on that east coast as good precip gets in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Thanks for reading my AFD! Just sent a new Public Information Statement (PNS) with totals we have so far. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hope not....but how many times have we seen the GFS/UKie in the cold suppressed camp..and the Euro in the warm ,rainy one? The answer is alot..and guess which one always wins in the end I still don't by a colder solution for us, but I could see CNE and NNE get in. I think euro op is too amped up, but I'm not sure it matters for my area. I'd love to see the GFS give a big F.U. to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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