Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 it'll be interesting to see what the weekend holds. there isn't a ton of support for what the euro is doing. but a great write-up from HPC on the pattern: BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE THE HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WEST COAST/STRENGTH OF THE ERN CONUS RIDGE. THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN GENERALLY KEEP ERN CONUS HGTS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS RESULTING IN ECMWF GUIDANCE BRINGING A BETTER DEFINED WAVY FRONT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48... VERSUS THE GFS/CMC THAT HOLD ONTO STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST AND DEVELOP STRONGER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY BY DAY 7 MON. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF RUN BEARS SOME RESEMBLANCE TO THE GFS CLUSTER BUT A LAGGED AVERAGE OF PAST 4 ECMWF RUNS STILL SHOWS THE WAVY FRONT THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EC/EC MEAN. WHILE THE FACTORS APPEAR TO BE EVENLY SPLIT... TELECONNECTIONS DO PROVIDE SOME HELPFUL GUIDANCE. D+8 MEANS FROM THE GFS/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ALL SHOW A PRONOUNCED CORE OF POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES NEAR THE AK PENINSULA. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE FAVOR A FLATTER ERN CONUS RIDGE THAN THE GFS CLUSTER... AND MAXIMIZE PCPN POTENTIAL OVER THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. EVEN WITH THEIR DETAIL DIFFS THE PAST TWO ECMWF RUNS DISTRIBUTE THEIR QPF MUCH CLOSER TO THE TELECONNECTION FAVORED LOCATION VERSUS THE FARTHER NWD 00Z-06Z GFS. THUS PREFERENCE WILL GO TOWARD THE ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'm now at 34.8/26, the high for the month (not sure what it was prior to today). Hopefully the cold front will come through sooner rather than later and rid us of today's bout with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Mid 40 s and no dripping in sunshine, wind is gusty too. Not often are these conditions seen, uniqueness of this winter continues. Getting interested in the big wind event Sat, perhaps the last of what haven't we seen this winter. The boring period actually was pretty interesting with an ice fog event, Windex, low humidity no snow melt at 45 and now the potential for a HWW event, good stuff, good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 There will def be some melting today, I mean 45 temps with a little sun will do it. The rules of physics do apply here..lol. However, the glacial like consistency requires a lot more energy to melt a certain quantity of snow. Clouds help, as sun can be your worst enemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 There will def be some melting today, I mean 45 temps with a little sun will do it. The rules of physics do apply here..lol. However, the glacial like consistency requires a lot more energy to melt a certain quantity of snow. Clouds help, as sun can be your worst enemy. big winter. big big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Mid 40 s and no dripping in sunshine, wind is gusty too. Not often are these conditions seen, uniqueness of this winter continues. Getting interested in the big wind event Sat, perhaps the last of what haven't we seen this winter. The boring period actually was pretty interesting with an ice fog event, Windex, low humidity no snow melt at 45 and now the potential for a HWW event, good stuff, good times. where are you living now, 3k ft in the Whites? ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 So it sounds like the Euro op has support from the ens for the Sunday and Tuesday snow events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 In the past two weeks, the snow depth here was depleted from 25-28" down to roughly 18-22". That's a pretty big hit, considering the temperature has not gone above 39.4 for the month of Feb (until today) currently 39.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 One good thing is that the ground temperature is probably very close to freezing, even if the air temps are 38 or 42 or whatever it may be. It will take a solar hit to make the significant dent in the sfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 50.4 here...AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 where are you living now, 3k ft in the Whites? ;D How about this fook u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 There will def be some melting today, I mean 45 temps with a little sun will do it. The rules of physics do apply here..lol. However, the glacial like consistency requires a lot more energy to melt a certain quantity of snow. Clouds help, as sun can be your worst enemy. May be less melting and more sublimation - but eating the snow either way, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 big winter. big big winter. The rules of physics don't apply to God's country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 So it sounds like the Euro op has support from the ens for the Sunday and Tuesday snow events? The ensembles keep most of the moisture south, but do have that front HPC was referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Just did a real extensive survey of the snowpack, since I know we are about to start raping it......lowest reading I could find in the most exposed spot around my yard was 19", but that was not a very common number....highest was 27" at the edge of my neighbor's very shady deck, but it looks as though it drifts up to about 30". So indeed, the area where I have my stake right near the Davis looks like nice representative number (25.5"). There were def. some spots safely over 3' at the peak depth of 33". Can't emphasize enough how rare it is to have a stale, glaical pack this deep in this locale....I can't ever recall it occuring in my life. This is usually reserved for NNE.....and rarely N ORH co and sw NH in their best seasons, but this is a once in 30-40 year occurence, here. amazing stuff dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 The rules of physics don't apply to God's country. this should certainly equate to some dripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 So it sounds like the Euro op has support from the ens for the Sunday and Tuesday snow events? OT but ...I actually don't believe the GFS operational run is all that different for that time from from the 18z and 06z solutions. The 00z left something to be desired ...but if you go back along the ECM operational runs for beyond D5 you will find just as many vagarious solutions for the extended. I find the overt love for the ECM extended solution slightly disconserting because there really isn't much of a justification for it. It factually is no better than the GFS beyond ...probably 4.5 days out in time...definitely by 6. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 May be less melting and more sublimation - but eating the snow either way, yes steady dripping here at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Yes, there's definitely been a withdrawal from all the tracking we did in December and January. I spent so many hours pouring over computer models, and now it seems there's nothing to do in life, especially since it's not yet time for real outdoor activities like gardening, tennis, hiking etc. Sad how addicted we get, but we do learn a lot in the process. it could be worse, you could be addicted to crack cocaine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Met spring has always been a bullsh*t term. Honestly do you ever consider 3/4 a spring day? strongly agree with this. my biggest storms are in march i doubt its all tulips and grass just to my south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Kevin should check out the scenes in South Korea. That's enough for Pete to cry out for his momma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Yeah Friday will be tough..but it's nice to rip the front thru earlier now..That extra 24 hours makes a huge difference...plus now folks won't be able to get out and enjoy the warmth on Saturday since the warmth is during the week. Nothing worse than a weekend in winter with kids on bikes and folks enjoying warm wx..thankfully we won;t have to see any of that nonsense i agree with all your post. ......i think people who are into snowpack and snowpiles are all the same. yeah friday is gonna suck dude im gonna be cooler but with more rain i guess we just commiserate (sp?) together, or maybe jiust draw the curtains. it looks as though the front will come through here around 7pm on friday evening, so that is huge. maybe ill take a walk out around 9pm and assess the state of the pack, at least i can go to bed comfrotably that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Kevin should check out the scenes in South Korea. That's enough for Pete to cry out for his momma. Post them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 How about this fook u fook reality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 http://www.ndtv.com/...100-years-85442 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Post them http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/02/14/6050735-snow-bomb-hits-south-korea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 That looks like all Fake Effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 That looks like all Fake Effect i just deleted my post lol...geography ftl yeah some kind of upper level low is spinning down there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i just deleted my post lol...geography ftl yeah some kind of upper level low is spinning down there.. i looked at that image over and over again and was pretty confused by your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i looked at that image over and over again and was pretty confused by your post i was looking at the peninsula way further northeast which is part of Russia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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