CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Violently disagree It's not the most violent thaw, no...but it's not a mini thaw...lol. No sales pitch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 True, but the longer-term trend, comparing today's 12z GFS ensembles with yesterday's 0z and 12z ensembles, has been to have the ridge south of AK poke eastward a little more toward W. Canada (trending a bit toward the ECMWF ensembles) and to have the system in the SW US be more progressive. I do agree the Euro is probably too fast on ejecting the system in the SW US, but the GFS is likely too slow. The 12z GFS ensembles lowered heights in AK. I'm just not sure it comes flying in like the euro has. It's possible, but I guess I wouldn't buy it just yet. If the 12z run has it, then I'll believe it a little more, but fast flow is going to play havoc on the models.. I also think the GFS may struggle at times with this flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 It's not the most violent thaw, no...but it's not a mini thaw...lol. No sales pitch here. 43.4/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 True, but the longer-term trend, comparing today's 12z GFS ensembles with yesterday's 0z and 12z ensembles, has been to have the ridge south of AK poke eastward a little more toward W. Canada (trending a bit toward the ECMWF ensembles) and to have the system in the SW US be more progressive. Yeah it raised heights quite a bit over the coast of BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 True, but the longer-term trend, comparing today's 12z GFS ensembles with yesterday's 0z and 12z ensembles, has been to have the ridge south of AK poke eastward a little more toward W. Canada (trending a bit toward the ECMWF ensembles) and to have the system in the SW US be more progressive. I do agree the Euro is probably too fast on ejecting the system in the SW US, but the GFS is likely too slow. Canadian is almost a nice compromise.That sort of fits my thinking. Whether the low goes into lake Superior is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Folks are gonna be in for a rude awakening next weekend. Winter just smacks them back to reality after a meh torch Brett and DT were on my FB post like flys on sh**.......not sure what they thought, but all I meant was a swfe........I just said that we should be seeing a return of storms, so they may have gotten the wrong idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I wouldn't worry too much about the op. I think what I said yesterday and the day before may happen. We get relatively cold next week, and then a possible brief warmup near the end of the month...perhaps somewhere in the 26th to 28th timeframe..and then an early March cooldown. That's how I could see things as of now. Of course, it doesn't mean much when you are 10+ days out....but I could see that. Clocks ticking though. 2/14 and we're still looking at x or xx days for the next set of threats depending on the model. Time will tell. I'm only at 47.8 but my ice is still frozen and I swear the snow isn't melting either, it may even be expanding. Global cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Clocks ticking though. 2/14 and we're still looking at x or xx days for the next set of threats depending on the model. Time will tell. I'm only at 47.8 but my ice is still frozen and I swear the snow isn't melting either, it may even be expanding. Global cooling. Well, did you expect them to osmosis into the short term......I mean, we all knew that there would be a susbstantial break. It's only vday......we have plenty of time......at least one month before it even starts to become more difficult for the lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Wind really picking up. HWW posted. Hard to believe we'll be single digits by morning.teens for highs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Wind really picking up. HWW posted. Hard to believe we'll be single digits by morning.teens for highs tomorrow. Minor torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Wind really picking up. HWW posted. Hard to believe we'll be single digits by morning.teens for highs tomorrow. Tomorrow is going to be an absolute beatdown to many people. Impressive CAA tonight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Wind really picking up. HWW posted. Hard to believe we'll be single digits by morning.teens for highs tomorrow. That's great to hear. Just light southerly winds at 2-3 mph here. As much as it would be nice to have snow over the weekend/next week, just the return to cold weather will be a good thing. Too soon for that. Up to 44.4/29. Up to .09" melted in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Well, did you expect them to osmosis into the short term......I mean, we all knew that there would be a susbstantial break. It's only vday......we have plenty of time......at least one month before it even starts to become more difficult for the lower elevations. We always have a chance in March when our source region is cold. If we're left with a crappy stale airmass and 540 thicknesses, that's when Will and Kevin are naked chest bumping each other. Otherwise, it's not hard to get a 2007 type St Patty's day airmass in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Even with the low heading toward Lake Superior, it stays fairly cold over New England due to the 50/50 low. Also it looks like a 2ndary would be forced to develop given the strong confluence in place. Canadian is almost a nice compromise.That sort of fits my thinking. Whether the low goes into lake Superior is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Wind really picking up. HWW posted. Hard to believe we'll be single digits by morning.teens for highs tomorrow. There is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Even with the low heading toward Lake Superior, it stays fairly cold over New England due to the 50/50 low. Also it looks like a 2ndary would be forced to develop given the strong confluence in place. Yeah definitely. I just meant that I'm not sure if it would take that route, or go underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Even with the low heading toward Lake Superior, it stays fairly cold over New England due to the 50/50 low. Also it looks like a 2ndary would be forced to develop given the strong confluence in place. What time frame are you speaking of here? Is this the weekend or early next week? Roof is shedding snow today, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Even with the low heading toward Lake Superior, it stays fairly cold over New England due to the 50/50 low. Also it looks like a 2ndary would be forced to develop given the strong confluence in place. you get one of these for extrapolating the 180 hour GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 We always have a chance in March when our source region is cold. If we're left with a crappy stale airmass and 540 thicknesses, that's when Will and Kevin are naked chest bumping each other. Otherwise, it's not hard to get a 2007 type St Patty's day airmass in here. There's nothing like an elevation event..there really isn't.... love em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 At this point I feel like I should just go into hibernation, possibly sharing a snow bank with this lonely soul (No, I don't think that is Pete) until after the torch is through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 These clouds today were a Godsend..Looks like the front is approaching WNE now...Raindrops in GC soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 We always have a chance in March when our source region is cold. If we're left with a crappy stale airmass and 540 thicknesses, that's when Will and Kevin are naked chest bumping each other. Otherwise, it's not hard to get a 2007 type St Patty's day airmass in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 There's nothing like an elevation event..there really isn't.... love em i might be mistaken, but i think ray really likes those too. hopefully there's one this march where you and will bring in like 14 to 16" of concrete while wilmington is 33F with about 1.5" of hvy hvy liquid in the bucket. i remember ray saying he liked those days a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 At this point I feel like I should just go into hibernation, possibly sharing a snow bank with this lonely soul (No, I don't think that is Pete) until after the torch is through. That's one ugly pile of snow. THat must be why it's so important for some areas to continually get refresher events. 45.5/29 edit; man, those upper 50's south of ALY are scary things. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 These clouds today were a Godsend..Looks like the front is approaching WNE now...Raindrops in GC soon? With clouds and deep snow cover and even a little CAA aloft, we still are getting to 50. Torch. Luckily, the td's are low and snow is ice packed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i might be mistaken, but i think ray really likes those too. hopefully there's one this march where you and will bring in like 14 to 16" of concrete while wilmington is 33F with about 1.5" of hvy hvy liquid in the bucket. i remember ray saying he liked those days a lot. I have a decent shot of catching Kev in the pattern that looks to be shaping up....mid levels could give a flying sleet pellet how high above sea level you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 These clouds today were a Godsend..Looks like the front is approaching WNE now...Raindrops in GC soon? Not soon enough. Returns are still west of ALY and full sun attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I have a decent shot of catching Kev in the pattern that looks to be shaping up....mid levels could give a flying sleet pellet how high above sea level you are. what pattern is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Keene still hanging on at 39.0F going out to measure my pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Tomorrow is going to be an absolute beatdown to many people. Impressive CAA tonight into tomorrow morning. Wow, no kidding. I was just reviewing the FRH grid for BOS and it has -11C at the 980mb level; that's 12.2F, extrapolating to perhaps 15 or 16F at the surface after a day in the low to mid 50s!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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