Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 These threads make me thing of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Just my thoughts on the matter, but I don't really have any issue with this. The flow is fast in general, with 582dm heights over the N Gulf, while a new arctic or polar/arctic hybrid suppression cuts into the GL -OV-NE. That means the balanced mid-level wind velocties are going to be hauling some serious ass from the SW right off the MA.... Once that cold lower troposphere loads into 35N and point N, that is going to instantiate (more so than impulse caused...) a generalized powdered overrunning - just add water. The 850 to 700mb geostropic flow will tend to be uplide the whole way. I think HPC might have even hinted at this ...god I hate this word, ANA type scenario in their prelim dialogues, and I can kind of see where they are going with this. I see us having today and Friday's warm assaults in heavily modified cP air (less real warmth thermodynamically - another reason why people are baffled by the lack of actual runoff taking place at 50F), intervened by Tuesday chill, then a more meaningfull continental-scaled pattern change into a gradient pattern. Probably be sunny, wind, and cold Saturday, and then a big mass of cirrus plummage erupts from the MV/ New England going forward at any rate. Yeah I don't think the euro is out to lunch or anything..or even the GFS. Perhaps it's something closer to Monday night, rather than Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 GFS has been sort of hinting for a few runs how the pattern can be pretty "meh" with this gradient pattern. yeah. the euro had that idea yesterday too for that one run. it's going to be a tough battle with such an extreme negative PNA. it certainly could work out well if the cards play our right. but it could also easily lead to cutters and transient shots of warm/cold and be more of a GL/NNE pattern if we can't combat the se ridge and keep driving energy up through the high plains and into the western lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 ewr 55 already thats impressive at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 A lot of the reason why the GFS is slow to eject energy from the SW US and is showing Lakes runners has to do with its odd handling of the building ridge west of AK. It becomes 180 degrees out of phase with the GFS and Euro ensemble. By Sun night the op GFS has a trough over the Aleutians, where the GFS and Euro ensemble have a building ridge. Meanwhile the GFS has a building ridge just off the west coast of Canada, where the GFS and Euro ensemble have a trough. Given the GFS's inconsistency and poor handling of transitional patterns, I wouldn't give it nearly as much weight as the ensembles. Op GFS valid Sun night: GFS ensemble valid Sun night: GFS still not buying what the euro is selling for Sunday Night. Wonder if the euro is too bullish with ejecting disturbances from the southwest trough, or is the GFS just suppressing everything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 54 on the north shore. I chuckled at the "highs steady in the mid 40s" point and click last night. how you can bust by 10 degrees in 12 hours without a tricky mesoscale boundary is beyond me. the algorithms used in the forecasts seem like 0.8x climo + 0.1x obs + 0.1x models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 PIA 57 I think todays underforecasted warmth will really aid those looking to see how warm we can get wed-sat. We have 3 more hours of warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 A lot of the reason why the GFS is slow to eject energy from the SW US and is showing Lakes runners has to do with its odd handling of the building ridge west of AK. It becomes 180 degrees out of phase with the GFS and Euro ensemble. By Sun night the op GFS has a trough over the Aleutians, where the GFS and Euro ensemble have a building ridge. Meanwhile the GFS has a building ridge just off the west coast of Canada, where the GFS and Euro ensemble have a trough. Given the GFS's inconsistency and poor handling of transitional patterns, I wouldn't give it nearly as much weight as the ensembles. Op GFS valid Sun night: GFS ensemble valid Sun night: The 12z GFS ensembles lowered heights in AK. I'm just not sure it comes flying in like the euro has. It's possible, but I guess I wouldn't buy it just yet. If the 12z run has it, then I'll believe it a little more, but fast flow is going to play havoc on the models.. I also think the GFS may struggle at times with this flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 For those posting mild temp obs in this thread there is a thread for that already from Ryan. Please don't junk up this thread with that nonsense. This is the only time I'll ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 For those posting mild temp obs in this thread there is a thread for that already from Ryan. Please don't junk up this thread with that nonsense. This is the only time I'll ask sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 For those posting mild temp obs in this thread there is a thread for that already from Ryan. Please don't junk up this thread with that nonsense. This is the only time I'll ask 48F with melting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 For those posting mild temp obs in this thread there is a thread for that already from Ryan. Please don't junk up this thread with that nonsense. This is the only time I'll ask 53.6 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 sorry LOL..that wasn't directed at you. There's a few posters who are deliberately trying to do anything in their power to have this mini thaw turn into something more than it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 It's possible that the water draining into the sewer in front of Kevin's house, is from heavy heavy tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 LOL..that wasn't directed at you. There's a few posters who are deliberately trying to do anything in their power to have this mini thaw turn into something more than it is I love snow as much as you, but it's a little more than a mini thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Tadpoles in the puddles here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i'm curious to see what pete records for a high temp today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Winters vengeful return seems to have about as many teeth as Sadam's republican guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 LOL..that wasn't directed at you. There's a few posters who are deliberately trying to do anything in their power to have this mini thaw turn into something more than it is yeah i hear ya. i actually wish the wind wasn't howling so strong down here...if it's going to be >45F might as well be able to sit outside for a bit. but the 35 knot gusts are kind of killing that here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i'm curious to see what pete records for a high temp today. 27.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i'm curious to see what pete records for a high temp today. 40's here at 2k right now. Warmest day in along time. Working in a long sleeve T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 LOL..that wasn't directed at you. There's a few posters who are deliberately trying to do anything in their power to have this mini thaw turn into something more than it is winter's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i'm curious to see what pete records for a high temp today. 28F. Big winter coming...big big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 40's here at 2k right now. Warmest day in along time. Working in a long sleeve T. yeah i figured you had to be 40s given some of the surrounding obs. big melting? big big melting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 yeah i figured you had to be 40s given some of the surrounding obs. big melting? big big melting? Doesn't seem to be doing much but with such a deep snowpack it's hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 I love snow as much as you, but it's a little more than a mini thaw. Violently disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Winters vengeful return seems to have about as many teeth as Sadam's republican guard. I wouldn't worry too much about the op. I think what I said yesterday and the day before may happen. We get relatively cold next week, and then a possible brief warmup near the end of the month...perhaps somewhere in the 26th to 28th timeframe..and then an early March cooldown. That's how I could see things as of now. Of course, it doesn't mean much when you are 10+ days out....but I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 38F over at Wachusett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Doesn't seem to be doing much but with such a deep snowpack it's hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 For those posting mild temp obs in this thread there is a thread for that already from Ryan. Please don't junk up this thread with that nonsense. This is the only time I'll ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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