Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 With clouds and deep snow cover and even a little CAA aloft, we still are getting to 50. Torch. Luckily, the td's are low and snow is ice packed. When does the CAA kick in? Sundown? 50's back to west of ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I have a decent shot of catching Kev in the pattern that looks to be shaping up....mid levels could give a flying sleet pellet how high above sea level you are. 33S+ for Phil. 18 and IP fr Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 what pattern is that? SWFE prevalent pattern....possible gradient pattern not unlike Dec 2007. I'd give myself a 25% shot of catching him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 When does the CAA kick in? Sundown? 50's back to west of ALB Thinking I might get 50 here, too. Alreay up to 46.1/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 33S+ for Phil. 18 and IP fr Kev. Apparently Phil thinks it's far fetched, but I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 When does the CAA kick in? Sundown? 50's back to west of ALB Yeah it will be a slow tick down, and then violent drop after 9-10pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Yeah it will be a slow tick down, and then violent drop after 9-10pm or so. No point in agonizing over it....gonna happen. 46.6\31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Just took a looksee at the property and made a few measurements. In the shade it isw probably 5-10* cooler than in the bluebird sun. Snow depths still 22-24" (one spot I hit 29" but that is an anomaly) I saw 2 different bugs. One small fly and another mosquito looking thing on the snow. Squirrels everywhere. Maybe they will freeze solid overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 SWFE prevalent pattern....possible gradient pattern not unlike Dec 2007. I'd give myself a 25% shot of catching him. I don't care all that much if you catch me. I'm more concerned with continual snowcover until April 15th...and reaching 100 inches on the winter. The time of year for SWFE events really wanes in March..and we shift more to elev and nocturnal events. I'd give you about a 15-20% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Apparently Phil thinks it's far fetched, but I don't. Well I just happened to snatch that shot from the 06z GFS..lol. If it does set up in a favorable spot, you could do well.....but I'm still not sure how everything will play out. Normally, I would expect the GFS to be cold and further south in the long range...not the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Just took a looksee at the property and made a few measurements. In the shade it isw probably 5-10* cooler than in the bluebird sun. Snow depths still 22-24" (one spot I hit 29" but that is an anomaly) I saw 2 different bugs. One small fly and another mosquito looking thing on the snow. Squirrels everywhere. Maybe they will freeze solid overnight We're about even, now.....funny how the hills always catch up in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 front just went through Albany. Gusts over 50 mph in BUF but they are aided by southwest flow funneling off Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I don't care all that much if you catch me. I'm more concerned with continual snowcover until April 15th...and reaching 100 inches on the winter. The time of year for SWFE events really wanes in March..and we shift more to elev and nocturnal events. I'd give you about a 15-20% chance The 2nd half, yes. Would I like to catch you, sure.....but I don't expect to and won't be pissed if I don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 There will be lots of black ice in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 front just went through Albany. Gusts over 50 mph in BUF but they are aided by southwest flow funneling off Lake Erie. That might be enough to lift MRG up off the ground if a good gust caught his hair and the hair acted like sails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 That might be enough to lift MRG up off the ground if a good gust caught his hair and the hair acted like sails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Wind really picking up. HWW posted. Hard to believe we'll be single digits by morning.teens for highs tomorrow. front is impressive. ottawa got warm sectored up to 37F, but will drop to an overnight low of -4F tonight for a 41 degree temp drop. wont be as dramatic here, from 32F to 0F tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Well I just happened to snatch that shot from the 06z GFS..lol. If it does set up in a favorable spot, you could do well.....but I'm still not sure how everything will play out. Normally, I would expect the GFS to be cold and further south in the long range...not the euro. I know that, but my point is that there is some support among modeling for that patten to develop....it's not a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 front just went through Albany. Gusts over 50 mph in BUF but they are aided by southwest flow funneling off Lake Erie. Any idea how fast it's moving? We've gone from full blue to lots of cumulus. They appear to be headed W-E, but light surface winds are primarily S. 47.6/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 front is impressive. ottawa got warm sectored up to 37F, but will drop to an overnight low of -4F tonight for a 41 degree temp drop. wont be as dramatic here, from 32F to 0F tonight BOX says 47F to 10F They have cooled down Tues to a high of 15F egad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Any idea how fast it's moving? We've gone from full blue to lots of cumulus. They appear to be headed W-E, but light surface winds are primarily S. 47.6/30 4 hours from Fulton to Albany...so 35-40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 The rapid freezeup tonight should really ice up the pack even moreso than it was in preparation for the Thursday/Friday air raid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 huh--the light breeze suddenly took a west/nw reading. 48.0/29 EDIT: Yup--wind's now out of the west. Temp stil climbing htough. 48.3/30. I really hope 50 doesn't fall, but I suspect it will before the temps reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 The rapid freezeup tonight should really ice up the pack even moreso than it was in preparation for the Thursday/Friday air raid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 huh--the light breeze suddenly took a west/nw reading. 48.0/29 EDIT: Yup--wind's now out of the west. Temp stil climbing htough. 48.3/30. I really hope 50 doesn't fall, but I suspect it will before the temps reverse. odd...it was still SW at Pittsfield 25 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 BOX says 47F to 10F They have cooled down Tues to a high of 15F egad! 37 degrees.....impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 odd...it was still SW at Pittsfield 25 minutes ago. I'm north of rt 2, so maybe being further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'm north of rt 2, so maybe being further north? it's the front...I just looked at the satellite. The winds stayed out the SW at Pittsfield in the past hour even though the front was through...I missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 ya know it's bad when people are tracking a cold front that's trailed about 200 miles by sub-freezing air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Went out to "officially" measure my pack. Got 22"-24" throughout (as I had thought), but it is so hard! Practically had to hammer the meterstick through. Not sure if I am hitting ice or ground at the bottom. I can stand on top of it in most places 28.0F now... sent my 12yr old son out to take measurements, he came back with the yard stick in two pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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