40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Just did a real extensive survey of the snowpack, since I know we are about to start raping it......lowest reading I could find in the most exposed spot around my yard was 19", but that was not a very common number....highest was 27" at the edge of my neighbor's very shady deck, but it looks as though it drifts up to about 30". So indeed, the area where I have my stake right near the Davis looks like nice representative number (25.5"). There were def. some spots safely over 3' at the peak depth of 33". Can't emphasize enough how rare it is to have a stale, glaical pack this deep in this locale....I can't ever recall it occuring in my life. This is usually reserved for NNE.....and rarely N ORH co and sw NH in their best seasons, but this is a once in 30-40 year occurence, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 This is what we need to complete the winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 This is what we need to complete the winter: I'm through the withdrawl of coming down off that high and now that I'm once again thinking with a clear mind, I don't even really need another bomb.....give me 2-3 more mod events, tainted or not and this season ascends into the elite. I realize that may not be the case for the n folk, but just speaking for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 GFS looks decent in the longer range...North Atlantic gets blocky with a lot of cold air over Canada, but we still have a deep trough in the West to contend with. It's definitely going to be a pattern with a lot of SWFE and mixing issues if the GFS has any idea what it's doing in the longer range. Fantasy hours have a big coastal with very cold air coming in early March, but that's far away. Yup, Don also posted about how sustained cold returns in the 3/3-6 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Just did a real extensive survey of the snowpack, since I know we are about to start raping it......lowest reading I could find in the most exposed spot around my yard was 19", but that was not a very common number....highest was 27" at the edge of my neighbor's very shady deck, but it looks as though it drifts up to about 30". So indeed, the area where I have my stake right near the Davis looks like nice representative number (25.5"). There were def. some spots safely over 3' at the peak depth of 33". Can't emphasize enough how rare it is to have a stale, glaical pack this deep in this locale....I can't ever recall it occuring in my life. This is usually reserved for NNE.....and rarely N ORH co and sw NH in their best seasons, but this is a once in 30-40 year occurence, here. Somehow Long Island has that also. I have no idea how the snow has been able to stick around so long. 50 days! Best Valentine's Day gift ever (outside of getting a blizzard.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Somehow Long Island has that also. I have no idea how the snow has been able to stick around so long. 50 days! Best Valentine's Day gift ever (outside of getting a blizzard.) I find that difficult to believe......I guess maybe the west tip, but most of LI torched to near 50 during that event where we had the t-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I find that difficult to believe......I guess maybe the west tip, but most of LI torched to near 50 during that event where we had the t-storms. I don't think he means the same depth...but the duration of pretty deep snow pack. I think some spots on the north shore still have near a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I don't think he means the same depth...but the duration of pretty deep snow pack. I think some spots on the north shore still have near a foot. Oh, ok....I was wondering about that after I responded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I find that difficult to believe......I guess maybe the west tip, but most of LI torched to near 50 during that event where we had the t-storms. The high here was 43. I think the parts of Long Island that got to 50 were in Suffolk County. That was one wild night, Ray! Those guys on the North Shore had like 15" of snow going into that storm, I think theyre down to 8 now (same as the city). The snowcover is really variable around here-- basically just a couple of inches where the sun shines on it directly (west and south facing areas) and 6-8 where there is less sun (north and east facing areas.) Something really weird though and something I wish someone could explain-- after the top part of the snow melted, the bottom layers seem to be very resistant to further melting for some reason. It's a very solid pack too, you have to punch holes in it to measure it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I don't think he means the same depth...but the duration of pretty deep snow pack. I think some spots on the north shore still have near a foot. Yeah, I worded that wrong lol-- I just meant it feels like a glacier because you cant stick anything in it, you have to punch holes to measure it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Here's the MA snow depth map from earlier this morning...obviously it has a lot of void spaces including my area, but its pretty amazing to see just about everyone over 20" except SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Yeah, I worded that wrong lol-- I just meant it feels like a glacier because you cant stick anything in it, you have to punch holes to measure it. I know...I feel like I'm trying to murder it at times lol......if you can't find a preeixisting slot, then break through with your foot, then stick the ruler in next to the undisurbed periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Here's the MA snow depth map from earlier this morning...obviously it has a lot of void spaces including my area, but its pretty amazing to see just about everyone over 20" except SE MA. I'd buy 23", but no lower than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I know...I feel like I'm trying to murder it at times lol......if you can't find a preeixisting slot, then break through with your foot, then stick the ruler in next to the undisurbed periphery. Thanks! I'll try that next time. I was seriously considering using a hammer with my ruler lol. See that map Will posted-- Long Island's snowcover is sort of like central SE Mass right now (Plymouth county I think.) Urbanization is a huge factor too, the Park still has 8" but the commercial areas much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Euro has an overrunning snow event getting in here as early as Sunday morning this 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Storm number 2 looks like it tries coming Monday night but it actually might be too far south. Euro sends the SW trough out in a couple or three separate pieces of energy so it doesn't get overly wound up as a low well west of us. Instead its a couple different SW flow/overrunning type events where the sfc low gets crushed underneath us. Its a good look for us though to have those type of systems running up the OH River valley with some confluence to the north. Very Dec 2007-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 As long as Saturday is 100% dry...don't want the outdoor game to get ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 The Euro also has impressive +350 m positive anomalies over Greenland by this weekend. Haven't seen any blocking since mid-January, and given climo of very -NAO events in Dec/early Jan, it's bound to return at some point. I think the ECMWF is going a bit overboard on the blocking, but even weak blocking will help to suppress the heights over E Canada and increase confluence. Euro has an overrunning snow event getting in here as early as Sunday morning this 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 The Euro also has impressive +350 m positive anomalies over Greenland by this weekend. Haven't seen any blocking since mid-January, and given climo of very -NAO events in Dec/early Jan, it's bound to return at some point. I think the ECMWF is going a bit overboard on the blocking, but even weak blocking will help to suppress the heights over E Canada and increase confluence. Looks like the Euro has changed its tune from when the weeklies showed no blocking. I like that its the Euro showing it, instead of the GFS with its usual biases. It might be the first sign that we go back to a December style extreme block again for early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Nice that their are at least a few others checking things out during the overnight. Been a little quiet in here lately at this time of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Dec 2007 didn't have a KU, but I think most from Kev points n would take it and run......even a track over us will be fine with a high over Canada. If you're expecting to accumulate a 3' snowpack again, than March will dissapoint, but if you just want a shot to tack on 30" to the seasonal total.....then you have a shot, especially from the pike points n. I still think we have a 50\50 shot to see enough blocking to get another monster coastal, but not a given. Storm number 2 looks like it tries coming Monday night but it actually might be too far south. Euro sends the SW trough out in a couple or three separate pieces of energy so it doesn't get overly wound up as a low well west of us. Instead its a couple different SW flow/overrunning type events where the sfc low gets crushed underneath us. Its a good look for us though to have those type of systems running up the OH River valley with some confluence to the north. Very Dec 2007-esque AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 ECM also has a massive -EPO in the long range with 850s above freezing in Alaska, but the mean trough remains in the West as the -PNA continues to dominate the flow. The Day 10 map does suggest we might see arctic cold with the trough moving east after some sort of cutter, so that might set up a good stretch for early March. Most of the extreme cold looks to remain over Siberia and Kamchatka, but there's a pipeline into Central Canada and the High Plains that might affect the Northeast by the end of the month. There's definitely been a shift in the models towards a more wintry regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 18/15, seasonal snowfall totals are going up,up, up. It'll be nice to have a raucous March instead of a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 We might finally start seeing an increase in severe wx as well across the Plains in the next 7-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 ECM also has a massive -EPO in the long range with 850s above freezing in Alaska, but the mean trough remains in the West as the -PNA continues to dominate the flow. The Day 10 map does suggest we might see arctic cold with the trough moving east after some sort of cutter, so that might set up a good stretch for early March. Most of the extreme cold looks to remain over Siberia and Kamchatka, but there's a pipeline into Central Canada and the High Plains that might affect the Northeast by the end of the month. There's definitely been a shift in the models towards a more wintry regime. This is why it's good to stick to your guns and look for models to corroborate, as opposed to flopping with each day 10 flip.....March should be good. Not speaking of anyone, specifically....just a general musing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 This is why it's good to stick to your guns and look for models to corroborate, as opposed to flopping with each day 10 flip.....March should be good. Not speaking of anyone, specifically....just a general musing. I sure hope so, I've been bored out of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I sure hope so, I've been bored out of my mind. I could see up to another 6" or so this month, but don't expect much more than that before flipping the calendar to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I could see up to another 6" or so this month, but don't expect much more than that before flipping the calendar to March. Unless March is pretty crazy here it doesn't look like BDL will break their seasonal record...even 100'' is probably in jeopardy now but a top 3 winter is within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Unless March is pretty crazy here it doesn't look like BDL will break their seasonal record...even 100'' is probably in jeopardy now but a top 3 winter is within reach. Good...would have been BS, anyway...I'm glad that the meteorological Bonds will fall short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I sure hope so, I've been bored out of my mind. Yes, there's definitely been a withdrawal from all the tracking we did in December and January. I spent so many hours pouring over computer models, and now it seems there's nothing to do in life, especially since it's not yet time for real outdoor activities like gardening, tennis, hiking etc. Sad how addicted we get, but we do learn a lot in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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