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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Central/Western States

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

I'm calling it now. I think a wave is going to develop on that D6 cold front. Not sure how it plays out as far as snowfall amounts, location, etc, but I think there'll be something to watch. All the models seem to lag the H5 trough well behind the sfc cold front, with some leftover vorticity in the base of the trough. That bodes well for some secondary development IMHO.

132 on the 18z GFS Ensembles shows some panels with more development.

f132.gif

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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makes sense when it comes to clippers or pac bowling balls, but all the good ones have a raging gulf flow and monster WAA ;)

My own personal opinion is that it's a little overrated (or at least misused in by some weenies in some circumstances :P). If there's a snow event and another event with marginal thermal profiles coming right on its heels, I might give it more consideration as that is when the models might be more likely to mess up the temps.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

The weather looks pretty quiet around here again starting tomorrow and lasting until maybe next weekend per last several GFS runs. Amazing that most of this area won't even see the first flurries of the season until at least then. Even here we only had about a 30 second shower of mixed snow pellets and flurries so far. Starting to get a bit frustrating.

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

Major CAA day in Madison it would appear. A high of 38F was reached at midnight, and now it's 27F and dropping steadily, despite approaching mid-day.

GFS is projecting 850s of -16C later tonight, which translates to temps well into the teens.

I'm kind of jealous since I love extreme CAA events like this, but it appears another Arctic high will be roaring into Madison just as my plane lands anyways.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

This is one of the coldest Thanksgiving days I can remember. Was overcast all day until late afternoon when it cleared. Precip stayed to the east all day. Somehow it doesn't seem fair that southern Illinois gets snow before we do, but that's the way it goes lol.

Gonna be the coldest night of the season so far tonight, with temps dropping well into the teens. Already down to 23 with a dew of 11. We'd probably be in the single digits tonight with some snow cover.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

This is one of the coldest Thanksgiving days I can remember. Was overcast all day until late afternoon when it cleared. Precip stayed to the east all day. Somehow it doesn't seem fair that southern Illinois gets snow before we do, but that's the way it goes lol.

Gonna be the coldest night of the season so far tonight, with temps dropping well into the teens. Already down to 23 with a dew of 11. We'd probably be in the single digits tonight with some snow cover.

That's a little friendly payback for Northern Illinois having a good deal more snow than we do down here :P

though seriously, you better believe it was cold, especially from 10AM on.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Making up for lost time.

Precipitation totals at LAF each day this week:

Monday: 0.88"

Tuesday: 0.02"

Wednesday: 1.24"

Today: 0.87"

Total: 3.01"

To put it into perspective, the last time we had a month that had that much total rainfall was July (4.00").

Also brings the November total precip to 3.25"...which guarantees an above normal month (average Nov precip...3.08" at WL COOP, 2.81" at the airport).

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

The next county west of here is under a snowsquall watch. Maybe a squall will drift this way tomorrow.....

     SNOWSQUALLS WITH WHITEOUTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT..
     THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IS ABOUT TO KICK INTO HIGH GEAR.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BLAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWSQUALLS MAY DUMP
LOCALLY 15 TO 25 CM OF SNOW IN 12 HOURS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
STRONGEST SNOWSQUALLS WILL AFFECT THE GREY - BRUCE REGION AND AREAS
EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY FRIDAY THEN MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO SIMCOE
COUNTY AND PARTS OF HURON - PERTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

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Moneyman

Moneyman

Posted
Posted

00z GFS looks kinda interesting for the Monday/Tuesday storm. It shows a secondary low pressure riding up along in the eastern great lakes region (1000 MB LOW in Michigan) but it's just too warm right now.

MKE said this also (although I'm not sure what they are talking about)

SOMEWHAT INTERESTING DOUBLE LOBED TROUGH LOOK TO SYSTEM DEVELOPS

AS FIRST POSITIVELY TILTED SHEAR AXIS PEELS EAST INTO MICHIGAN AND

A SECOND LOBE DROPS IN JUST BEHIND IT. THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS QUITE A

BIT ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WISCONSIN. BOTH THE

12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH SECOND FEATURE DROPPING

INTO IOWA AREA THEN 00Z/06Z VERSIONS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE LOW MOVES

INTO ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER GREAT LAKES

AREA. COLD ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -8 AND -12C. POTENTIAL

FOR FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT SETUP NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITING

FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS.

0z GFS has a 992 LOW in Canada as well.

So it seems like the low is getting stronger in recent model runs.

Thoughts?

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B-Rent

B-Rent

Posted
Posted

Next system doesn't have much model divergence, but at Day 6, the 00z Euro and 00z GFS are different in both the east and the west.

Did yall get much winter precip on this one?

I love November tornados in the Ozarks, I lived in Lebanon in 1995, jon boats strung in the trees with snow on them the next morning.

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

Did yall get much winter precip on this one?

I love November tornados in the Ozarks, I lived in Lebanon in 1995, jon boats strung in the trees with snow on them the next morning.

I didn't get any here. It was mainly east of Joplin, that includes the tornadoes last night ;)

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Seems like the models may have warmed up slightly. I think we'll probably end up in the 32-34 range here tomorrow.

Yep. It looks like you (and the latest models) might be right. We'll see since we're starting out at a chilly 21 this AM.

I just went out to empty the rain gauge and it was frozen. Time to take out the inner tube. Man, is that wind nasty with these temps!

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huronsquall

huronsquall

Posted
Posted

Hello on_wx,

I am in that county west of you and look forward to our first snow - but I think this will be mostly to the north of us. We'll see what happens tonight as the squalls move south. But this mornings watch says that it will change to rain on Saturday. :axe:

The next county west of here is under a snowsquall watch. Maybe a squall will drift this way tomorrow.....

 	SNOWSQUALLS WITH WHITEOUTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT..
     THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IS ABOUT TO KICK INTO HIGH GEAR.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BLAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWSQUALLS MAY DUMP
LOCALLY 15 TO 25 CM OF SNOW IN 12 HOURS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
STRONGEST SNOWSQUALLS WILL AFFECT THE GREY - BRUCE REGION AND AREAS
EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY FRIDAY THEN MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO SIMCOE
COUNTY AND PARTS OF HURON - PERTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

Only made it down to 27*F before sunrise. The temps have virtually stagnated now.

Now we're on the edge of the subsidence inversion & the lake effect cloud deck, so our clouds are SCT/BKN. It'll be interesting to see how this afternoon plays out in resepct to lake effect developemnt & afternoon highs.

Good news is a short wave is suppose to come through during peak heating (both of which wll help the pitiful inversion heights), but it still doesn't make up for the lack of moisture.

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