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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Central/Western States

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Has tapered to flurries. Total 0.4". Could have been more but there was partial melting/was very slushy.

Measurable Nov. snow bodes well for the winter ahead.

Congrats.

And to all those in the midwest/lakes who have not yet seen measurable snow (which is a lot of us), one thing Ill say that Ive been saying over and over. Ive seen too many people make too much of measurable snow in November and what it means for the winter that lies ahead. And Im as into stats/climo/past weather as much as anybody. Lets say in year (a) you get 7 days of Nov snow, all a T, and in year (a2) you get one day of snow, a freak squall that drops 0.5" in 10 minutes. Does it mean that the winter following November (a2) will be better than the one following November (a)? Absolutely not.

Will end the month most likely with a T here.

Here is a ranking of all the years since I began measuring snow in 1995-96. I ranked them in order of SNOWIEST NOVEMBERS, not snowiest winters. My snowiest November came in my least snowy winter.

.................Nov.....Season total

1997-98 --- 6.0" --- 27.2"

1996-97 --- 5.7" --- 35.9"

2005-06 --- 4.8" --- 41.9"

2002-03 --- 4.7" --- 69.0"

1995-96 --- 2.9" --- 31.3"

2000-01 --- 2.2" --- 47.3"

2007-08 --- 1.9" --- 64.8"

2003-04 --- 0.9" --- 38.0"

2004-05 --- 0.7" --- 82.1"

2007-08 --- 0.7" --- 78.2"

2006-07 --- 0.3" --- 36.3"

1998-99 ---- T ----- 51.6"

1999-00 ---- T ----- 29.3"

2009-10 ---- T ----- 46.1"

2001-02 ---- 0 ----- 43.1"

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Congrats.

And to all those in the midwest/lakes who have not yet seen measurable snow (which is a lot of us), one thing Ill say that Ive been saying over and over. Ive seen too many people make too much of measurable snow in November and what it means for the winter that lies ahead. And Im as into stats/climo/past weather as much as anybody. Lets say in year (a) you get 7 days of Nov snow, all a T, and in year (a2) you get one day of snow, a freak squall that drops 0.5" in 10 minutes. Does it mean that the winter following November (a2) will be better than the one following November (a)? Absolutely not.

Will end the month most likely with a T here.

Here is a ranking of all the years since I began measuring snow in 1995-96. I ranked them in order of SNOWIEST NOVEMBERS, not snowiest winters. My snowiest November came in my least snowy winter.

.................Nov.....Season total

1997-98 --- 6.0" --- 27.2"

1996-97 --- 5.7" --- 35.9"

2005-06 --- 4.8" --- 41.9"

2002-03 --- 4.7" --- 69.0"

1995-96 --- 2.9" --- 31.3"

2000-01 --- 2.2" --- 47.3"

2007-08 --- 1.9" --- 64.8"

2003-04 --- 0.9" --- 38.0"

2004-05 --- 0.7" --- 82.1"

2007-08 --- 0.7" --- 78.2"

2006-07 --- 0.3" --- 36.3"

1998-99 ---- T ----- 51.6"

1999-00 ---- T ----- 29.3"

2009-10 ---- T ----- 46.1"

2001-02 ---- 0 ----- 43.1"

Numbers since I started measuring in 1999 show much more of a correlation, which is why I made that point:

.................Nov.....Season total

2002-03 --- 8.7" --- 61.7"

2005-06 --- 4.4" --- 33.9"

2008-09 --- 4.2" --- 70.1"

2007-08 --- 2.1" --- 86.5"

2003-04 --- 0.7" --- 40.8"

2004-05 --- 0.4" --- 53.9"

2000-01 --- 0.4" --- 53.5"

1999-00 --- T --- 36.2"

2001-02 --- T --- 23.4"

2006-07 --- T --- 33.8"

2009-10 --- T --- 23.0"

Only 2005-06 is aberrant. The 4 Novembers that saw only a T of snow all resulted in sub 40" seasonal snowfalls. 6 of the 7 Novembers that saw measurable snow, even as little as 0.4", were 40"+ seasons.

But both our sample sizes are pretty small. And if you finish Nov with only a T, and me with 0.4", that doesn't mean all winter long snowstorms are going to be attracted to me like bees on honey, while simultaneously giving you the shaft.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Numbers since I started measuring in 1999 show much more of a correlation, which is why I made that point:

.................Nov.....Season total

2002-03 --- 8.7" --- 61.7"

2005-06 --- 4.4" --- 33.9"

2008-09 --- 4.2" --- 70.1"

2007-08 --- 2.1" --- 86.5"

2003-04 --- 0.7" --- 40.8"

2004-05 --- 0.4" --- 53.9"

2000-01 --- 0.4" --- 53.5"

1999-00 --- T --- 36.2"

2001-02 --- T --- 23.4"

2006-07 --- T --- 33.8"

2009-10 --- T --- 23.0"

Only 2005-06 is aberrant. The 4 Novembers that saw only a T of snow all resulted in sub 40" seasonal snowfalls. 6 of the 7 Novembers that saw measurable snow, even as little as 0.4", were 40"+ seasons.

But both our sample sizes are pretty small. And if you finish Nov with only a T, and me with 0.4", that doesn't mean all winter long snowstorms are going to be attracted to me like bees on honey, while simultaneously giving you the shaft.

Yeah when you look at a larger sample size, you can see just about anything.

A few extreme examples from Detroit:

................Nov.....Season Total

1899-00........T......69.1"

1932-33....10.1".....25.9"

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Posted

Pretty nice day for the end of November. Full sun and 51. Definitely a lot warmer than the last few days.

It sure looks like winter out there right now. The sun angle is so low, and all the trees are bare. All the scene needs is a thick blanket of snow.

only 46 here

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

The last 2-3 winters here have featured a very snowy December and January, with basically nothing from February on. Maybe this year we'll get off to a slower start, only to pick up the slack at the end of the winter.

Latest NAM and GFS runs have showed up to a half inch of rain here later tomorrow. If that happens that will be the heaviest rainfall we've seen around here since sometime back in October.

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

Never heard of this before, kinda interesting SWS for southern WI.

950 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

...SOME SLIPPERY ROADS BEING REPORTED...

RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED ROAD SURFACES TO...OR BELOW

FREEZING. SOUTH WINDS ARE BRINGING INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE

MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE MOIST AIR IS CONDENSING ON THESE

COLD ROAD SURFACES. IN SPITE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES...

THIS MOISTURE IS FREEZING ON THE ROADS CREATING SLIPPERY SPOTS.

UNTREATED RAMPS...BRIDGES AND LOW SPOTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO

FREEZE. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISES CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR

SUDDEN CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Never heard of this before, kinda interesting SWS for southern WI.

950 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

...SOME SLIPPERY ROADS BEING REPORTED...

RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED ROAD SURFACES TO...OR BELOW

FREEZING. SOUTH WINDS ARE BRINGING INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE

MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE MOIST AIR IS CONDENSING ON THESE

COLD ROAD SURFACES. IN SPITE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES...

THIS MOISTURE IS FREEZING ON THE ROADS CREATING SLIPPERY SPOTS.

UNTREATED RAMPS...BRIDGES AND LOW SPOTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO

FREEZE. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISES CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR

SUDDEN CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

This is actually pretty common in winter and road frost is a major worry for state DOT's, especially like states such as Iowa which take extreme precautions with road frost. Moist WAA over what were cold roads is no different than some of the freezing rain events you get where temps are above freezing. The one they had in Fairbanks earlier this week is a good example when they had temps of 35 but freezing rain on all surfaces after they had a cold snap with temps in the negative teens and twenties. Of course that is an extreme example but it has similar results. These kind of events can also be very dangerous since drivers have no clue that roads may be icy with temps above freezing. Here is a picture of the icing event in Fairbanks a friend took with temps in the mid 30s. http://yfrog.com/mgyv5pj

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

This is actually pretty common in winter and road frost is a major worry for state DOT's, especially like states such as Iowa which take extreme precautions with road frost. Moist WAA over what were cold roads is no different than some of the freezing rain events you get where temps are above freezing. The one they had in Fairbanks earlier this week is a good example when they had temps of 35 but freezing rain on all surfaces after they had a cold snap with temps in the negative teens and twenties. Of course that is an extreme example but it has similar results. These kind of events can also be very dangerous since drivers have no clue that roads may be icy with temps above freezing. Here is a picture of the icing event in Fairbanks a friend took with temps in the mid 30s. http://yfrog.com/mgyv5pj

Wow, that's neat! Good to know as the winter progresses.

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

Well, back to the Midwest shortly. Gonna hit Detroit late this afternoon and be in Madison by evening. Things look clear going into Detroit, but there will be some rain at Madison. I'm guessing they can handle rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see a small delay.

Should be fun crossing the rainband in a plane.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Well, back to the Midwest shortly. Gonna hit Detroit late this afternoon and be in Madison by evening. Things look clear going into Detroit, but there will be some rain at Madison. I'm guessing they can handle rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see a small delay.

Should be fun crossing the rainband in a plane.

Well you will be coming to a great airport. :)

Btw knowing my luck now that I said this, there will be delays or they will lose your luggage or something ridiculous. :(

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