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  1. Josh measured 968mb unofficially and got in the eye, so it had a higher pressure than Florence at landfall and still had 120mph winds. Seems the storm was able to shrink on final approach rather than weaken. And the cloud pattern didn't resemble a storm battling a lot of shear.
  2. Nice charted pressure vs distance relationship/comparison by Josh Morgerman [mention=19]hurricanejosh[/mention] between two of his Kestrel instruments, seperated by 3.7 miles. One left at his original chase location recorded 939.7 mb. It remained inside the eyewall. A second he had inside the hotel at his final chase position that measure 923.2 mb just inside the western periphery of the eye. A difference of 16.5 mb in 3.7 miles or 4.46 mb per mile. That is probably not exact as the pressure drop probably increased from point B to A. At any rate, that aligns pretty well to the last 919 mb center fix by recon at landfall, though central pressure may have actually dropped a mb or two lower as landfall was underway. Regardless, that is an impressively tight pressure gradient. Post analysis should definitely be interesting.
  3. Well said. Josh was in the same hotel as me during Michael. He's strictly hurricane and typhoons
  4. Agreed, absolutely, and that's pretty much why I don't chase hurricanes, not unless they come right to me. But that's just me, others feel differently. For some, hurricanes are their one true passion, and chasing tornadoes might just be something to do during the off-season. I've known chasers like that. And of course some (like Josh, I believe) don't bother with tornadoes at all.
  5. I'll say it again, no Cat 2 has a perfectly formed stadium eye fully surrounded by deep convection, WMG eye temp on Dvorak, and produces the kind of "white-out" video footage coming out of Michael. Looks very comparable to other high-end 4 landfalls of recent years such as Maria and Patricia. Oh, and I suppose Cat 2s have pressure in the 920s (not even at the center of the eye) and impress guys like Josh and other chasers who have been in some of the strongest landfalls of the decade. ...but I suspect these are the kind of folks who aren't going to be convinced by data, so I'm wasting my digital breath.
  6. I'm not sure who to trust. Experienced high end hurricane chaser Josh Morgerman or SENC.
  7. I'm waiting for SENC to tell us how ridiculous icyclone Josh is being... since him center punching the strongest cyclones in the world for the last 15 years apparently doesn't compare to living in SE NC your whole life.
  8. I've made that drive before between Panama City and Port St. Joe and your perception is correct. There's a reason that people like Josh didn't go over there- lack of options.
  9. Josh was in the eyewalls if Haiyan and Patricia. He's smart even if a huge risk taker. He might get killed one day, but he has always admitted the risk. Still, he usually seeks out the safest concrete structure to record data and has years of experience. Hopefully he will be okay.
  10. I know people kind of idolize josh on here, but it is so dumb. It also encourages amateurs to try as well. Would any chaser drive into an ef3 tornado? That is essentially what they are doing here, adding it will last for hours, and surge. It is is extremely irresponsible.
  11. That’s a great place to put the O/U. I am not gonna answer until I know where josh is, tho.
  12. This. I'm no Josh but I have been in quite a few canes. The best way I can describe it is although the measured wind velocity may be the same a strengthing cane feels much more violent. It swings wildly and very quickly from less wind to more. It is almost like taking repeated punches from a professional fighter(don't ask me how I know that). A weakening cane may have the same amount of variety in wind speed but it feels much more smoothed out. It raises and lowers much slower than a strengthing cane.
  13. Highest observed sustained real reading from josh? O/U 90 kt?
  14. Josh Morgerman stated he would be heading out today to chase Michael per his Twitter feed.
  15. Huh, that is interesting. I mean I do get the public safety argument. But it just feels a bit too far. Essentially, Hurricane chasing is illegal in this country. I wonder how Josh bypasses that law. Would be interesting to find out. Because it now seems like a common practice that if a Hurricane is coming to somewhere, it suddenly becomes illegal to so much as be there. You can't get a hotel, they close it. You can't hang out in a car, they will knock on your window and tell you to leave or else. Basically the only way is if you actually own property on location, even then, they are going to highly encourage you to get out. It just seems like a bit of a stretch to me to be able to arrest someone for such reasons. Feels like the government might be coming close to violating constitutional rights.
  16. This summer certainly has been warm. I've enjoyed every minute of it. I've had dozens of late night walks in the neighborhood with the wife and puppy. However, I am finally starting to look forward to some cooler weather and fall like conditions in the next month. I also want to experience what it would be like to be in a Hurricanes eyewall. One of the big posters here Josh from Icyclone chases Cat 4/5s all over the world and gets in the highest winds of the eyewall. The guy lives the life! That would be a dream job for me.
  17. If it comes ashore looking anything like that, Josh is going to vomit.
  18. Exposure. Exposure. Exposure. Western media and the threat is great in a highly publicized event. The possibility of a stall on the coastline could also make for a long-duration event. Something Josh has not had a lot of dealings with versus short intense landfalls. Also he already explained his reasoning in potential difficulties in chasing and penetrating Mangkhut in the Luzon Strait as well. I think he made a good call.
  19. Looks like Josh Morgerman picked Florence over Mangkhut to chase. Tells you everything you need to know. As an aside, anyone on the coast seeing an increase in surf yet?
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