WxWatcher007

I didn’t see anything. The PWS were in the 2-4 range when I looked.

This was the South Windsor cell a little earlier. It had nice inflow in real time.

Sorry man. That one looked like it’d be a close shave.

If Sey-Mour ain’t getting in on this cell he may need a welfare check.

They got smoked.

Best storm of the year. Approaching .50”

Nah, I was on it so the odds were zero. In all seriousness though it had some pretty strong inflow. Hope to share a TL when I’m done.

Awesome. I was wondering who called that in.

Big rainer out near Avon

It is but that’s kinda normal. The 0-120 hour structural forecast (vorticity and organization) is what matters to me.

Not accurate. The main thing is that the ensembles are trying to show a pathway for TC genesis that could get into the Caribbean. I posted the Papin tweet in the thread but this is a great illustration of what we’re looking at. This isn’t ten days out there either, this is a short to medium range forecast. For genesis—don’t really care about the downstream impact—that’s too early.

I believe every landfalling 5 was a tropical storm within 72 hours of landfall.

There's definitely some vorticity down there and it's getting stronger in recent hours at least based on CIMSS analysis. 850mb 925mb It also has a nice moisture envelope (note that it also looks better in the E Atlantic where the next wave should be) If it can break off and get into the Caribbean without too much shear, it should be a good environment. The ensemble guidance has had a light signal. We'll see if that becomes more modest today.

The Antilles critter is moving up my list, chiefly because it’s already near 60W and doesn’t have to deal with the eastern Atlantic graveyard.

Gets to 60W and takes off

GFS more aggressive with that monsoon trough thing near the Antilles. Maybe we start to see more of a focus on that. Edit: it has trended more consolidated the last ~8 runs.

Good thing I got rain yesterday because I look good for a couple misses today lol

Not surprising. We’re looking at a much longer time horizon with this one, if it even develops at all. I wonder if/when they will put lemons on the trailing wave and potential disturbance near the Antilles. Those have some ensemble support.

This is one that should produce, but…

I know he’s losing his mind. There’s nothing chaseable. On the entirety of planet Earth.

Adding to this. -The lemon looks meh, but that was expected at this point. -Follow up wave is a question mark. Guidance has backed off a bit for now at least. Let’s see what happens when it comes off Africa. -Still a light ensemble signal for a weak low, now in the BOC. -Meh for #4 but the signal is still there. More on operational guidance though so not expecting much. -I’ll add a new area 5. Disturbance near Antilles The ICON, which I don’t look at for tropical, was apparently trying to pick up on a disturbance breaking out of the monsoon trough near the coast of South America, and now the GFS (and GEFS/EPS) are flirting with something breaking away and into the Caribbean. Unlike the rest of the tropical Atlantic, this environment is warmer, more moist, and has less shear (for now at least). Problem is this is the monsoon trough, which can be hard to break out of, and it’s so low spin/vorticity May be tough. Might be worth a casual eye, especially if the ensembles start to pick up on it more. At this point though, these are little more than straw grasping. We don’t have great signals for any. Yet. An August shutout is still unlikely imo but is a legitimate possibility.

Yeah—that too. I’m not as well versed with the wave breaking and TUTT connection, but that hasn’t helped. As I said in the tropical forum, if a wave isn’t suffocated by dry air it’s getting thrown through the wood chipper of shear. I’d expect that to relax in September, but we’re staring down a shutout August which nobody expected so who knows.

It’s why I love tropical. So complex. I’m really only scratching the surface. It’s incredible. Dry air/Stability has been a killer in the MDR this year.

If you’re talking about August, I think I agree. September will have more than 1 NS/hurricane/major IMO. Even if the eastern MDR continues to suck, the Caribbean should start opening up and it shouldn’t have the same dry air and stability issues. Not sure about shear if this WB keeps happening.

Well, if the tropics continue to suck at least fall and football will be here. I still think the peak will be good but we’ve been on a heater with tropical for a half decade now. That’s going to cool off at some point soon if it isn’t already here. I’ll be chasing 6” Midwest blizzards and -5° Moose Knuckle low temps if we continue winter futility here.