WxWatcher007

Don’t mind me I’m just throwing buns in the water for the weenies. Do tweets not show up on the site anymore?

Maximum sustained winds up to 50 at 5pm

or it could be like most Hollywood movies and have a horribly boring and annoying end?

Tropical

https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1413180073763508225?s=21

Totally agree with the idea that the setup is favorable out there.

Would love to get a Cape cane chase in someday. Big wind blizzard would be good too but those are tough to come by it seems

Elsa is produced TS conditions along the coast in every state so far, so I don't see a reason why it wouldn't in the Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall is always tricky with these when you're on the edge of a tropical system, but the coastal sections should cash in. HWRF is the best case scenario for those inland that want rain.

DON'T ENCOURAGE HIM

Don't disagree with any of that. Been a while since we've gotten a cane up here. An active peak gives us the best odds and I think the peak will be active again this year. If Elsa hits right we could see some flooding issues in CT due to the wet period we've seen, but other than that I'm not expecting anything particularly noteworthy here.

Ray is big dog or bust. You know this lol. Tropical quiets down after this but there's a robust signal for a big peak starting in August IMO. Steering pattern TBD.

Not sure how it’ll verify in this region but it did an excellent job for the most part further south. Remember the euro and ensembles tried shredding it in the western Atlantic and was totally wrong. Euro did pick up on the strengthening off Florida first but was too aggressive there too.

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current wind speed is set to 40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at least 40 kt. Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution. The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a little faster, about 14 kt. Elsa should move northeastward at an increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast since guidance remains in good agreement. Elsa is likely to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical low by day 4. There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall, from North Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern New England states and New York by Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 32.1N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Great to see so much early activity in the thread Looks like a modest quick hitter. I’ve spent most of the day bisecting Elsa in FL and GA. Crazy driving and strong winds in the bands inland.

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt. This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at this time. The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urban flooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 30.8N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Wild ride out of Florida. Currently in Lake City with measured winds near TS force.

I’d expect TS watches to go up for other coastal areas north of VA Beach sometime today. URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 544 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ANZ632>634-638-652-654-656-658-071745- /O.NEW.KAKQ.TR.A.1005.210707T0944Z-000000T0000Z/ Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA- Currituck Sound- Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- James River from James River Bridge to Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Parramore Island to Cape Charles Light VA out 20 nm-Coastal Waters from Cape Charles Light to Virginia- North Carolina border out to 20 nm- Coastal waters from NC VA border to Currituck Beach Light NC out 20 nm- 544 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... * WHAT...For the Atlantic waters and the Currituck Sound, south to southeast winds winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, becoming southwest. For the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, south to southeast winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 feet in the James River, 2 to 3 feet in the Currituck Sound, 3 to 6 feet in the lower Bay, and 6 to 9 feet in the Atlantic Ocean. * WHERE...The Atlantic coastal waters from Chincoteague to Currituck Beach Light NC, the Chesapeake Bay from New Pt Comfort to Cape Henry, the James River from the James River Bridge to the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel, the Currituck Sound. * WHEN...Thursday through Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

Clearwater Beach reported a gust to 56mph about 30 minutes ago.

Windy but dry here in the sucker hole

Well in all seriousness, while I think we all agree it's not a hurricane, as @NorthHillsWx said this system has a pattern of pulsing up and down. I mean just in the last hour we see more prominent banding features on the east side of the circulation, and the first pass by recon tonight showed 70+ kt FL winds. I can see how Elsa has a burst that brings in some bigger wind to some coastal spot. NHC is all about continuity so this isn't terribly surprising.

It collapsed when it finally became vertically stacked I love tropical.

WS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 After an earlier flurry of convective bursting and even the development of a eye in radar imagery, Elsa appears to have leveled off over the past couple of hours. Between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC, WSR-88D radars from Tampa and Key West indicated areas of average Doppler velocities of 75-85 kt between 8000-13,000 ft, which were co-located with convective bands consisting of 50 dBZ and higher reflectivity values, which equates to at least 65 kt surface winds. Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023 around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west side of the cyclone. The strongest 850-mb flight-level wind measured by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft so far has been 74 kt. However, radar data indicate that the aircraft just missed the strongest winds in the convection by only about 5 n mi. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops around the ragged eye feature later tonight. Elsa is moving northward, or 360/12 kt. This motion should continue tonight and early Wednesday until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by late Wednesday, followed by some acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday as Elsa rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and gets caught up by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast lies between the simple and corrected-consensus tracks models and the previous NHC track forecast. Elsa's inner-core convection looks pretty ragged right now, but the vertical structure has improved based on the reconnaissance data, which indicate that the low-, middle- and upper-level circulations are nearly vertically stacked now. Elsa's ragged eye feature along with the very warm water beneath the cyclone and the upcoming nocturnal convective maximum period could combine to allow convection to redevelop. However, proximity to dry mid-level air just to the west should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to increased frictional effects and Elsa's small size. The pressure gradient, however, is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to increase between Elsa and a sprawling surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic, which should act to increase the winds to tropical storm force near the coastal areas from Georgia to North Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity models HCCA and IVCN. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions southwest Florida and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 27.3N 83.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 29.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 31.4N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z 33.9N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 36.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 39.3N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/0000Z 42.8N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 11/0000Z 51.0N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Slop

75mph/995mb at 11