WxWatcher007

I still have hope I’m not going down in flames! It’s only August…it’s only August…it’s…only…

I’m not worried about my 10/6/4 forecast…yet…

Considering we can barely get convection in the entire basin, that’s a step up

It’s pretty wild. Ray really has me wondering if the volcano eruption has something to do with it.

We flush the GFS

Oh yeah, Grace was one that was supposed to have a high ceiling on the guidance and come more north early on in the but it muddled along right up to the western Caribbean and plowed straight west as the track there shows.

I know it’s still extremely early, but it just seems to me if the steering pattern collapses this one goes OTS.

From zero to two invests!

Just updated the OP to provide a little more context.

This evening the NHC designated the broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic Invest 91L. This began as a complex interaction between the most vigorous African wave of the season thus far (top), and a feature in the monsoon trough (bottom). There was growing consensus in development in the ensembles, and that is slowly being realized as the two features in the August 25th image above began to interact and form the broad low we see this evening. There is strong consensus on the guidance that this becomes a tropical cyclone in the next five days, with the Euro operational model and ensembles showing tropical cyclone genesis in the next 48-72 hours. The other guidance also shows development, increasing confidence that despite the omnipresent dry air that has dominated the Atlantic, this area has the best odds yet to overcome and develop. The ensemble guidance and operational models, once again led by the Euro, show a potentially favorable environment as the low reaches the SW Atlantic. It is early to discuss track guidance as we do not have a well-defined low yet, but for now at least, long range guidance suggests ridging in the Pacific Northwest that may allow for troughing to keep this one away from the US coast. Again, very early and not worth much discussion yet IMO. The first step is development, and we will see if this gradual organization over the course of the day and evening convective activity allows for us to break the named storm drought.

Life above the tree line is a whole different world. You’ll love it regardless of the direction. Congrats.

12z EPS—It’s a pretty strong signal that this doesn’t really get going until the Antilles, but development likely happens sooner. Not really thinking about track at this point.

I’ve been fortunate to accomplish a lot in life so far, but one of my greatest came two years ago when I successfully chased Hurricane Laura. A beast.

I need the rain

I’m not doing play by play, but the Euro is relatively robust for the disturbance even at 24h.

GFS continues wanting to develop the Carribean disturbance which counters upper ridging with a TUTT thereby inhibiting favorable conditions for the Atlantic system. The ECMWF is completely opposite with no WCARIB development thereby allowing a nice upper level pattern to develop downstream for a hypothetical hurricane nearto or north of the Greater Antilles. I still think that Caribbean disturbance has a chance, but I’m not as bullish as the GFS lol.

Yeah, far from a slam dunk imo. That said, I’m a little wary of the gfs having so much troughiness out there. It seems to try to roll a lot of dubious stuff up.

If it even develops…

Not in Tolland apparently

RIP Stein. The drought, not the man.

It’s a complicated setup. It’d take time even in a great environment. Probably worth an invest though given the other crap we’ve had designed so far this season.

Got a good one out today. Felt good.

If it's anything like me actually seeing interesting weather, never.