WxWatcher007

Seems a little early for an invest, but I guess we get extra data. SHIPS has a pretty hostile environment ahead, consistent with my thought (and operational guidance) that this doesn’t develop until it reaches 60W at least.

Nice. Good luck!

We don’t do patience well around here lol

College?

There may be some serious melts if this underperforms

I'm not on board for the widespread 1.5-2", but I think anything less than .50" imby would be a fail. My guess is I'll end up somewhere around .75 for the two days.

We don't spike yet. Still time for a fail. Got my fingers crossed for this one. It looks good here.

Currently, I am watching four areas over the next ten days. Not all will develop, but they seem worth a casual eye. 1. Current Atlantic Lemon This lead wave crossed into the Atlantic this weekend, and while it isn't terribly active convectively, it has a nice moisture envelope that could serve it well as it plows through a SAL plume in the central Atlantic. Any development of this one IMO would happen after about 60W, the Antilles vicinity. The guidance has a weak signal for development, in large part because of the uncertainty of the environment in the western Atlantic. 2. Follow up Atlantic Wave A second robust wave is expected to leave the African coast in 5-7 days and at least right now, it looks like it'll have a lot going for it with regard to environment. First, it's likely to come off the coast further south, into a better moisture and SST environment. Second, it'll be trailing the first wave closely enough where SAL shouldn't (famous last words) be as much of an issue. Third, it'll be coming off as the MJO amplifies and CCKW passes, which should enhance convection. This one has potential to be a long tracker, but it's just potential for now. 3. Caribbean/Gulf Wave There's a light but consistent signal on the ensembles that a wave in the Caribbean will traverse into either the Gulf or BOC next weekend. 4. Offshore East Coast Low This one wouldn't be a threat to land based on current guidance, but there's a consistent signal on the Euro/GFS operational guidance that a wave of low pressure develops either off the East Coast or in the Central Atlantic the last few days of August before heading further out to sea and intensifying.

The guidance that tried to develop this quickly has obviously backed off, but I think this one is a legitimate candidate to develop past 60W for a couple reasons. First, it's moving through the basin at a time when we see a favorable MJO and CCKW passage. That raises the odds that when it does find a more favorable environment it is able to fire convection and organize. Second, unlike the other waves thus far, this one has a large moisture envelope. CIMSS has some wonderful tropical products, and one of them tracks PW. While the wave is too broad and too close to the SAL to develop now, it may be able to start its sputtering engine when it is clear of the stable layer. The caveat is that something so broad can take so long to tighten that it runs right through its development window without TC genesis. Time sensitive loop You actually see this fairly consistently on the operational guidance--showing the wave near the Antilles in about a week and still somewhat coherent. It's enough to make development a coin flip but it's a marginal shot at this range absent better information on what shear will look like. I actually like this wave because of what it does for the follow up one. That has a relatively high level of support among ensembles for MDR development because it should be coming in further south into an even more favorable environment as currently modeled. We'll see what happens but I'd actually be shocked if one of those two waves didn't develop.

It’s really interesting how with the exception of the EPAC, cyclone activity has been practically nonexistent.

It was a very nice call, and a good win for the models. The game was over as soon as recon finished the first leg of its initial flight. It was nowhere close and this morning did not get it done. Edit: although it would have been nice to break the name drought, I still love these homebrew scenarios regardless of result because I think they’re all great opportunities to learn and better recognize legitimate TC genesis windows.

I’m not ashamed to say I seriously considered how I could chase both logistics wise. Don’t count on it That was an all-time event out there.

Reposting from my MA thread. First two years were great. Last year sucked. Time to get back on track and turn around my wrong streak so far this year. WxWatcher007 2022 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast I will start out my fourth annual forecast by saying I've been wrong a lot this season. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has thrown wrenches that have blunted potential for active periods a few times already, putting a lid on any meaningful activity from the end of July into what is only now the start of the climatological peak. Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. On this August 20, while we're starting to see the basin wake up, as of today, we still have not had a named storm in the basin since Colin. What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 Hurricanes: 6 Major Hurricanes: 4 Over the past four seasons, I've done very well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I believe I earned a B+ in 2019, A or A- in 2020, and a disappointing C in the 2021 forecast. At the start of this Atlantic season, I went with a prediction of 21/10/5 overall. The historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am bringing that overall prediction down. I see a total of 16/7/4 for the season, with ACE above normal but under 140. Let's look at why. First, the favorable factors. 1. ENSO This is a third-year Nina, and that has mixed signals in the basin. As @GaWx has pointed out, third year Ninas, while a relatively smaller sample size, have had a clear signal of being quieter than their counterpart years. This Nina has not budged much, and it is expected to remain in place through the peak of the season. The most recent ONI value from the CPC is -0.9C, solidly into Nina territory. For the entirety of 2022, the ONI has been between -0.9C and -1.1C. Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic during the peak should reflect a "typical" Nina with reduced wind shear and enhanced convective activity as a result. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 2. West African Monsoon No need to belabor this point. It still looks good and should be able to provide strong AEWs (African Easterly Waves) that despite the very quiet period have still rolled off Africa even before the traditional start of CV season. Note this is an absolute plot, not an anomaly. I'll get to the caveat here later in the post. 3. Wind Shear For the most part, shear hasn't been an issue in the basin, but there have been wave breaking periods where the tropical Atlantic (MDR) has seen sharp rises in shear. As a result of a Nina entering peak, we usually see wind shear levels that are relatively low across the basin. I think that happens this year and we are seeing such on the long range ensemble guidance. With wave breaking, we've seen some pretty awfully timed TUTTs in the basin that have also helped to stifle activity, but as is usually the case, the peak of the season reduces this risk. I think basin wide wind shear is unlikely to become a net negative for the peak, and the ensemble guidance has a wholesale pattern change that reduces shear in the tropical Atlantic as we approach September. I believe this is starting to be reflected in the operational guidance, which are attempting to kick off CV season with development. 4. SST Anomalies/OHC Another item on the favorable side of the ledger is the continued presence of warm SST anomalies in the tropical and western Atlantic, and high OHC in the Caribbean, Gulf, US Southeast Coast, and even out to the Antilles. Image above courtesy of Philip Klotzbach of CSU. We haven't really had issues with SSTs in recent years, and this year is no different. While we've seen some seesawing of temperatures in the Atlantic MDR, after a fairly modest rise, temps shouldn't be an issue. With a cooler subtropical region, we should have the orientation necessary for strong activity during the peak. With western Atlantic SST anomalies and OHC, activity should continue through the peak and into October provided the seedlings are there. \ Here is a 90 day CRW animation of SSTs in the basin. 5. CCKW/MJO Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active peak more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for at least the early part of September. With all these favorable factors, however, why am I not more aggressive for the peak? SAL & Stability The greatest limiting factor for this season thus far has been dry air, and more importantly, the vast expanse of stability in the tropical Atlantic. I don't think this can be understated, and it continues to be a fly in the ointment in the tropical Atlantic. To be clear, that doesn't mean we're going to get zero hurricanes and zero majors, but it means that there's serious potential that even with the presence of other favorable factors, a significant cap could be put on potential, especially in the MDR. There has been some discussion on Twitter about these plots overselling the extent of stability in the basin, but even if these are off by half, it speaks to a major issue that's clearly not going to be easily overcome. This is really ugly. Some of the stability will almost certainly be mitigated by the climatological peak, AEWs making it further into the Atlantic and finding more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic/Caribbean, and more waves moistening the environment in the tropical Atlantic, but that's going to take time and strong AEWs off the development table as they become "sacrificial waves", thus reducing CV potential. This gif is my capture of images since 7/31, 7/31, 8/10, 8/15, 8/20 to be exact. The start of this period was when we saw a truly awful SAL outbreak across the Atlantic. Things have gotten better--we now have corridors for waves that are low enough to develop in the MDR, but I don't think anyone can look at this and objectively say that dry air and stability is going to dramatically turn around in the near future. In fact, even with the active WAM, the ensembles still show potential issues lurking in the eastern Atlantic into early September. What happens after? I think things continue to improve, but it may be slow. You don't need to have a super wet environment to be active, but given where the MDR is right now with stability, we need change to maximize potential. Overall With each of these factors at play, I anticipate an active peak, with at least one named storm by the end of this month, an active September (especially early) and an active late September into the first 2/3 of October. I do think that the time it'll take to destabilize the eastern MDR will limit potential for high ACE, long track CV hurricanes, and for marginal waves to develop, but I also believe this will be mitigated by favorable conditions for hurricane development and perhaps a couple major hurricanes taking shape in the homebrew region of the western Atlantic and western Caribbean. Final Note--Landfall Odds The past two years have seen extremely active landfall conditions for the US, especially in the Gulf. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a third consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. If I had to take a stab in the dark, I'd place the eastern Gulf coast and Carolinas at the greatest risk in September and October, with one broader East Coast threat. We'll see what happens. Happy tracking.

WxWatcher007 2022 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast I will start out my fourth annual forecast by saying I've been wrong a lot this season. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has thrown wrenches that have blunted potential for active periods a few times already, putting a lid on any meaningful activity from the end of July into what is only now the start of the climatological peak. Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. On this August 20, while we're starting to see the basin wake up, as of today, we still have not had a named storm in the basin since Colin. What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 Hurricanes: 6 Major Hurricanes: 4 Over the past four seasons, I've done very well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I believe I earned a B+ in 2019, A or A- in 2020, and a disappointing C in the 2021 forecast. At the start of this Atlantic season, I went with a prediction of 21/10/5 overall. The historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am bringing that overall prediction down. I see a total of 16/7/4 for the season, with ACE above normal but under 140. Let's look at why. First, the favorable factors. 1. ENSO This is a third-year Nina, and that has mixed signals in the basin. As @GaWx has pointed out, third year Ninas, while a relatively smaller sample size, have had a clear signal of being quieter than their counterpart years. This Nina has not budged much, and it is expected to remain in place through the peak of the season. The most recent ONI value from the CPC is -0.9C, solidly into Nina territory. For the entirety of 2022, the ONI has been between -0.9C and -1.1C. Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic during the peak should reflect a "typical" Nina with reduced wind shear and enhanced convective activity as a result. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 2. West African Monsoon No need to belabor this point. It still looks good and should be able to provide strong AEWs (African Easterly Waves) that despite the very quiet period have still rolled off Africa even before the traditional start of CV season. Note this is an absolute plot, not an anomaly. I'll get to the caveat here later in the post. 3. Wind Shear For the most part, shear hasn't been an issue in the basin, but there have been wave breaking periods where the tropical Atlantic (MDR) has seen sharp rises in shear. As a result of a Nina entering peak, we usually see wind shear levels that are relatively low across the basin. I think that happens this year and we are seeing such on the long range ensemble guidance. With wave breaking, we've seen some pretty awfully timed TUTTs in the basin that have also helped to stifle activity, but as is usually the case, the peak of the season reduces this risk. I think basin wide wind shear is unlikely to become a net negative for the peak, and the ensemble guidance has a wholesale pattern change that reduces shear in the tropical Atlantic as we approach September. I believe this is starting to be reflected in the operational guidance, which are attempting to kick off CV season with development. 4. SST Anomalies/OHC Another item on the favorable side of the ledger is the continued presence of warm SST anomalies in the tropical and western Atlantic, and high OHC in the Caribbean, Gulf, US Southeast Coast, and even out to the Antilles. Image above courtesy of Philip Klotzbach of CSU. We haven't really had issues with SSTs in recent years, and this year is no different. While we've seen some seesawing of temperatures in the Atlantic MDR, after a fairly modest rise, temps shouldn't be an issue. With a cooler subtropical region, we should have the orientation necessary for strong activity during the peak. With western Atlantic SST anomalies and OHC, activity should continue through the peak and into October provided the seedlings are there. \ Here is a 90 day CRW animation of SSTs in the basin. 5. CCKW/MJO Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active peak more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for at least the early part of September. With all these favorable factors, however, why am I not more aggressive for the peak? SAL & Stability The greatest limiting factor for this season thus far has been dry air, and more importantly, the vast expanse of stability in the tropical Atlantic. I don't think this can be understated, and it continues to be a fly in the ointment in the tropical Atlantic. To be clear, that doesn't mean we're going to get zero hurricanes and zero majors, but it means that there's serious potential that even with the presence of other favorable factors, a significant cap could be put on potential, especially in the MDR. There has been some discussion on Twitter about these plots overselling the extent of stability in the basin, but even if these are off by half, it speaks to a major issue that's clearly not going to be easily overcome. This is really ugly. Some of the stability will almost certainly be mitigated by the climatological peak, AEWs making it further into the Atlantic and finding more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic/Caribbean, and more waves moistening the environment in the tropical Atlantic, but that's going to take time and strong AEWs off the development table as they become "sacrificial waves", thus reducing CV potential. This gif is my capture of images since 7/31, 7/31, 8/10, 8/15, 8/20 to be exact. The start of this period was when we saw a truly awful SAL outbreak across the Atlantic. Things have gotten better--we now have corridors for waves that are low enough to develop in the MDR, but I don't think anyone can look at this and objectively say that dry air and stability is going to dramatically turn around in the near future. In fact, even with the active WAM, the ensembles still show potential issues lurking in the eastern Atlantic into early September. What happens after? I think things continue to improve, but it may be slow. You don't need to have a super wet environment to be active, but given where the MDR is right now with stability, we need change to maximize potential. Overall With each of these factors at play, I anticipate an active peak, with at least one named storm by the end of this month, an active September (especially early) and an active late September into the first 2/3 of October. I do think that the time it'll take to destabilize the eastern MDR will limit potential for high ACE, long track CV hurricanes, and for marginal waves to develop, but I also believe this will be mitigated by favorable conditions for hurricane development and perhaps a couple major hurricanes taking shape in the homebrew region of the western Atlantic and western Caribbean. Final Note--Landfall Odds The past two years have seen extremely active landfall conditions for the US, especially in the Gulf. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a third consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. If I had to take a stab in the dark, I'd place the eastern Gulf coast and Carolinas at the greatest risk in September and October, with one broader East Coast threat. We'll see what happens. Happy tracking.

For those still following this, the BRO radar is showing the final approach.

It’s August 20. Will start writing my peak period outlook shortly.

I got that—and I’m not saying season cancel, or that we won’t get some CVs—it’ll still be active IMO. But the MDR is still quite hostile as evidenced by the continued presence of stability/dry air that has caused every robust wave the last six weeks or so to fail to develop. None of the ones in the coming week have particularly high odds to develop in the tropical Atlantic due to the ongoing conditions, either. Recent years have focused most activity on the western Atlantic and if we don’t see greater strides in the next two weeks I think it’ll likely be the case this year as well.

We have to acknowledge that virtually everything has been a struggle in this basin thus far. We’re only now approaching the 20th and there’s a long way to go, but it really is put up or shut up time. Preseason is over and the clock is ticking now. Things have been getting better but it’s clearly not enough yet for any meaningful activity.

FWIW, recon has found some very weak westerly/NW'ly winds near the coast, but I agree, weak and disorganized mess today.

Everything is a fight this year.

So catastrophic even Phil gets choked up thinking about it.

Yeah it absolutely was. I’m really just talking about a landfall

We chase in horse and carriage