WxWatcher007

Looks like HFD got a 98 in last hour.

We’re cooking down here lol I’m 97.8 right now with a high of 98.1 east of the river.

Ran behind HFD yesterday, slightly ahead today.

Nearly a 3 degree temp spike here at home in the last 30 minutes. Pretty sure I set a personal record for noon temp.

The basin is active. Both 95L and 97L have a chance to develop, though I think 97L might have the better long range odds at this point. The steering pattern would suggest at least at this point some type of close approach to the US by one or both waves, but obviously a long way out.

At least things aren't boring. Big heat today, slight risk tomorrow, and the tropics are unusually active, especially in the MDR. We followed up a landfalling TS yesterday with a new Invest today, 97L. Overall environment favors some type of US "close" approach, though you take that with a grain of salt at this range.

Low of 76.9 and high so far of 90.6. Currently sitting at 89.0/78 on the VP2.

Slight risk for most of New England for Wednesday.

Pretty nice radar presentation over central GA as convection fires up. https://i.imgur.com/a3ezYPZ.gifv

As long as you’re enjoying it my friend. I like getting long walks or some exercise on the hot days and making the exercise completely useless with ice cream afterward lol.

High of 94.1 which is a little disappointing but the dews were impressive. It actually felt pretty good breaking a sweat outside exercising this evening.

HFD cookin’ at 96/68. I’m actually challenging my daytime high as the dews drop a bit.

Tropical Storm Danny Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Doppler radar data from Charleston, South Carolina, along with preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, indicate that the depression has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Danny. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A Weatherflow station at Folly Beach, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). SUMMARY OF 305 PM EDT...1905 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Danny Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Doppler radar data from Charleston, South Carolina, along with preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, indicate that the depression has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Danny. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A Weatherflow station at Folly Beach, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). SUMMARY OF 305 PM EDT...1905 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart

That’ll work

That convective burst and continued organization has allowed for TD 4 to reach TS strength. Can really see the burst well on radar.

Can’t find recon data for the life of me, but TWC suggests that recon is finding TS winds near that convective burst around the center.

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past couple of days has developed into a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina this morning. The inner-core cloud structure noted in high-resolution visible satellite imagery has continued to tighten up and deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -60 deg C have persisted northwest through southwest of the center, yielding a Dvorak shear pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt. This intensity estimate is consistent with overnight scatterometer surface wind data of 31-32 kt just north of the well-defined center. The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The small tropical cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next couple of days, resulting in landfall along the south-central coast of South Carolina later this evening. The small cyclone is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner, when the system will be located over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly packed GFS- and ECMWF-based Beta-Advection models due to the lack of any significant inner-core convection, which is allowing the cyclone to be steered more by the low-level flow rather than the deep-layer flow as depicted by the global and regional models. There is a narrow window of opportunity this afternoon for the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall occurs. During the next few hours, the small cyclone will be passing over the warmer Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are around 28 deg C. In addition, as the outer wind field begins to interact with land, low-level frictional convergence along and just offshore should help to generate deep convection just prior to landfall, helping to spin up the wind field. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm before landfall, and as a result a tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of the South Carolina coast. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon beginning around 1800 UTC, providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.9N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past couple of days has developed into a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina this morning. The inner-core cloud structure noted in high-resolution visible satellite imagery has continued to tighten up and deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -60 deg C have persisted northwest through southwest of the center, yielding a Dvorak shear pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt. This intensity estimate is consistent with overnight scatterometer surface wind data of 31-32 kt just north of the well-defined center. The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The small tropical cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next couple of days, resulting in landfall along the south-central coast of South Carolina later this evening. The small cyclone is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner, when the system will be located over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly packed GFS- and ECMWF-based Beta-Advection models due to the lack of any significant inner-core convection, which is allowing the cyclone to be steered more by the low-level flow rather than the deep-layer flow as depicted by the global and regional models. There is a narrow window of opportunity this afternoon for the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall occurs. During the next few hours, the small cyclone will be passing over the warmer Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are around 28 deg C. In addition, as the outer wind field begins to interact with land, low-level frictional convergence along and just offshore should help to generate deep convection just prior to landfall, helping to spin up the wind field. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm before landfall, and as a result a tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of the South Carolina coast. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon beginning around 1800 UTC, providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.9N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

96L to be upgraded to TD Four at 11.

Well, it’s clearly organized enough with a well defined LLC. There’s just no big convection near the center. As the NHC said, any organization would bring advisories.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A small low pressure system is located about 425 miles east-southeast of Savannah, Georgia. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become less organized since earlier this afternoon, becoming displaced to the northwest of the surface center due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move quickly west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream Monday morning, and it has some potential to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina by Monday evening. If the system becomes more organized overnight or on Monday, then tropical storm warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina through Monday night. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.