WxWatcher007

I've noticed that Twitter and FB love to screw up the quality of videos when uploading. It's frustrating.

Nice! Is the pixelated part you or Twitter? Seriously though good stuff.

Take a look at those two cells near New Milford and New Preston. Always hard to tell with the radar out there, but they look a little “notchy”. Of course, if this were Kansas they wouldn’t bat an eye

We'll see. I'm still a bit skeptical but the radar looks ok to the west. Mesoscale Discussion 0752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Areas affected...portions of northern VA...MD...DE...NJ...eastern PA...southern NY...southern VT...and western MA/CT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...206... Valid 262041Z - 262145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205, 206 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to produce sporadic wind damage the next several hours as they moved eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. DISCUSSION...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms continue to quickly progress eastward late this afternoon. Mainly weak instability prevails across the region, with some pockets of MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg closer to the Delmarva vicinity. While this weaker instability and limited deep layer shear is subduing a larger severe threat, very steep low level lapse rates are aiding in periodic strong downdrafts. Sporadic damaging gusts have been reported through the afternoon and this trend should continue with the more intense clusters over the next few hours across eastern portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205 and into Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206. ..Leitman.. 05/26/2021

Not a bad look with those cells north of Rutland.

Line kinda collapsed in organization lol. A couple decent cells around Rutland. Meh (so far)

Starting to see some wind damage reports in western NY.

TORS FOR ALL!

James had a passion for the weather that sometimes drove us nuts haha but I always admired it. So many people go through life without finding something that truly inspires awe within, but James found that with weather. He was an important member and contributor in this community. His vibrant personality, hilarious scraps with Ray, and meaningful observations will be missed. May he rest in peace.

Just heartbreaking news. So young.

I don’t really consider myself particularly knowledgeable when it comes to severe compared to others, but when I see 3km CAPE and low level helicity like that line up, I sit up. Obviously there’s a lot more that goes into it, but tomorrow looks interesting from a potential standpoint.

Not bad…not bad at all

I don’t think mod is on the table—that’s quite hard to do around here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a limited enh zone though in upstate NY or NNE on D1 though. It looks like a decent severe setup especially up there. Down here in CT I agree with Wiz that there’s a relatively brief window for severe. Would like to see a discrete cell or two to maximize potential.

You just count as 1 NS. It’s pre-deadline so you get credit for it.

Caps talk evaporated in here faster than soil moisture in @EastCoast NPZ’s old backyard

Tropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 Ana is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone this morning, as the core of the system has become devoid of organized deep convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed that wind field is slowly weakening, with peak winds of 35 kt located just to the southeast of the center. Based on this data, the initial advisory intensity has also been decreased to 35 kt. The cyclone is currently located over cool SSTs of about 20 degrees C and surrounded by very dry air in the mid-troposphere. The environmental conditions will only become more hostile through tonight, as Ana gets caught between a digging mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a strong subtropical upper-level jet to its southeast. These features will impart increasing southwesterly shear over the system by later today, and any convection that tries to regenerate should be stripped away. Whatever is left of Ana's low-level circulation should then open into a trough on Monday as it becomes absorbed by a large approaching baroclinic zone associated with the upper-trough. The storm is now moving northeastward at 12 kt, and an accelerating forward speed is anticipated until dissipation as Ana gets caught up in increasing deep-layered southwesterly flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 36.6N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 38.0N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 41.7N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

First 90 since August imby.

Hello, Ana!

Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the central convection associated with Ana has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with a complex of small bands near the center at this time. The initial intensity will be held at 40 kt based on the latest intensity estimate from TAFB, although recently-received ASCAT data suggests this could be a little generous. Although the cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, Ana remains a subtropical storm based on its position near the center of a large upper-level low pressure system and the current lack of anticyclonic upper-level outflow. The initial motion is 270/3. Ana and the large low it is embedded in are expected to turn northward later today as a developing mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Canada and the New England states erodes the subtropical ridge west of Ana. After that, the storm is expected to turn northeastward on the southeast side of the mid-latitude cyclone. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than, the various consensus models. Little change in strength is expected for the next 12 h or so. After Ana recurves, a combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. The large-scale models agree upon Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in 36-48 h, and the official forecast shows this happening just after 48 h. The remnant trough will likely be absorbed by a cold front associated with the mid-latitude cyclone shortly thereafter. The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 34.3N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 34.8N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 35.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 37.2N 57.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 39.7N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

91L up to 60% odds. Not a lot of time left to develop. 2pm outlook. Odds up to 60%. 2. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2pm outlook. Odds up to 60%. 2. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Very close to advisories per the 2pm outlook. Still at 90% odds.

The NHC started naming subtropical storms in 2002 but they had a separate designation (numbers, rather than a name) for decades. More info here: https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/tropical_stuff/sub_extra_tropical/subtropical.htm