WxWatcher007

The only way to do it lol

Well this is the first time my gauge will be operating in years now that I have a house. Station not online yet.

For this kind of forecast that’s all we can do. Zero expectations here, and I’m still leaning toward nothing meaningful outside of far eastern CT, but it’d be nice to watch a quasi-tropical system blossom tonight. Rain tomorrow imby would be a bonus.

well you know how it is. Sometimes they are a little late to the party, especially with stuff near the coast. Each year there’s like at least one that pops under the radar with the NHC. Colin was one about six weeks ago. Kinda think that October storm was name worthy much earlier too.

Oh yeah, totally agree. I’m just saying I don’t see the NHC chiming in right now.

I wouldn’t expect the NHC to comment on this one unless it’s making a run at being fully tropical or subtropical. Doesn’t mean it won’t have some characteristics though.

Yup. Just biding my time until I can hit the road.

Not really thinking there’s meaningful rain imby, but hopefully we see a nice storm blossom to break the mind numbing monotony.

Between the October faux hurricane, blizzard, and drought bullseye for the AEMATT crew, I’m prepared to draft a declaration of secession if they get the coastal too. We will not go quietly into the night as the damage capital of New England.

Agree. If we do see multiple systems, I think they develop in different parts of the broader basin. The environment just isn’t there yet in the central and eastern Atlantic for multiple spin ups in rapid succession. That’s why I think the lead wave is least likely to develop, @GaWx. Much like the failed 97L, you often want a sacrificial one to moisten the environment ahead. Honestly though, we’re starting to get to the point in the season where if an AEW can survive it has a chance to develop in the western Atlantic and Gulf. We’ve had a lot of those in recent years. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where an area of low pressure could form by the end of this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly to the northwest or north-northwest over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Papin

Much like winter, even though it’s fantasy range it’s good to see something pop up.

Let’s just try to get some raindrops first brother

Like @NorthHillsWxstated, it’s going to take a little more time in the MDR, but we’re starting to see signals on the ensembles that aren’t the classic “perpetually ten days away” type pattern. SAL is on the decline in the basin (though still rough to be sure) and we’re entering the peak with a CCKW/MJO tailwind. I’m still wary of another false start signal, but if the basin can’t start popping some appetizers in the next ten days and at least one entree by the end of the month, that’d be bad for those like me that expect a solidly above average NS and ACE season.

Models trying to pick up on a Bay of Campeche disturbance trying to develop in a few days. Generally, that tends to be a favorable environment with the concave nature of the bay, so that alone makes it something to keep a casual eye on.

CT weenies would burn the state to the ground. Easy to do with so much kindling around.

Yeah that still doesn’t work for most of CT. We toss. Euro leading the way off the cliff for parched and desperate weenies?

Has it been wet down there? Bone dry here. My new front lawn is dead lol

The sunsets over my dead front lawn have been nice.

This has been a horrifically boring summer, but it is what it is.

Me too. How is Boston doing heat better than RIC??? That’s going to do me in.

Honesty, despite the signal for things to pick up, I’m in show me mode. There have been enough false starts this season.

98L would have easily become tropical with just 12 hours more over water, but alas, it’s inland and looking pretty good.

Low of 52.4 here. First night at the new house. Coolest low since June.

With this morning’s convective burst and organization, no doubt it would have developed with more time. Waited too long to get its act together, a hallmark of the 2022 season thus far.