WxWatcher007

The Antilles critter is moving up my list, chiefly because it’s already near 60W and doesn’t have to deal with the eastern Atlantic graveyard.

Gets to 60W and takes off

GFS more aggressive with that monsoon trough thing near the Antilles. Maybe we start to see more of a focus on that. Edit: it has trended more consolidated the last ~8 runs.

Good thing I got rain yesterday because I look good for a couple misses today lol

Not surprising. We’re looking at a much longer time horizon with this one, if it even develops at all. I wonder if/when they will put lemons on the trailing wave and potential disturbance near the Antilles. Those have some ensemble support.

This is one that should produce, but…

I know he’s losing his mind. There’s nothing chaseable. On the entirety of planet Earth.

Adding to this. -The lemon looks meh, but that was expected at this point. -Follow up wave is a question mark. Guidance has backed off a bit for now at least. Let’s see what happens when it comes off Africa. -Still a light ensemble signal for a weak low, now in the BOC. -Meh for #4 but the signal is still there. More on operational guidance though so not expecting much. -I’ll add a new area 5. Disturbance near Antilles The ICON, which I don’t look at for tropical, was apparently trying to pick up on a disturbance breaking out of the monsoon trough near the coast of South America, and now the GFS (and GEFS/EPS) are flirting with something breaking away and into the Caribbean. Unlike the rest of the tropical Atlantic, this environment is warmer, more moist, and has less shear (for now at least). Problem is this is the monsoon trough, which can be hard to break out of, and it’s so low spin/vorticity May be tough. Might be worth a casual eye, especially if the ensembles start to pick up on it more. At this point though, these are little more than straw grasping. We don’t have great signals for any. Yet. An August shutout is still unlikely imo but is a legitimate possibility.

Yeah—that too. I’m not as well versed with the wave breaking and TUTT connection, but that hasn’t helped. As I said in the tropical forum, if a wave isn’t suffocated by dry air it’s getting thrown through the wood chipper of shear. I’d expect that to relax in September, but we’re staring down a shutout August which nobody expected so who knows.

It’s why I love tropical. So complex. I’m really only scratching the surface. It’s incredible. Dry air/Stability has been a killer in the MDR this year.

If you’re talking about August, I think I agree. September will have more than 1 NS/hurricane/major IMO. Even if the eastern MDR continues to suck, the Caribbean should start opening up and it shouldn’t have the same dry air and stability issues. Not sure about shear if this WB keeps happening.

Well, if the tropics continue to suck at least fall and football will be here. I still think the peak will be good but we’ve been on a heater with tropical for a half decade now. That’s going to cool off at some point soon if it isn’t already here. I’ll be chasing 6” Midwest blizzards and -5° Moose Knuckle low temps if we continue winter futility here.

Hopefully the rubber band snaps back soon. Not holding my breath.

It would have been nice to see a quick spin up, but that’s just not the basin environment we have. Whatever develops here and elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic is going to go through a prolonged and ugly process. The further south and west a disturbance is, away from dry/stable air and shear by incessant wave breaking induced shear, will have better odds. Problem is a wave has to avoid being suffocated by dry air or run through the wood chipper by shear before getting to the fabled Goldilocks zone.

Residents hearing the sound of a boat sloshing through the flood, looking out the window watching Phil sail by saying “Now that’s a lot of worter”

I had .03” in that one.

Too much rain?

They’re all different, but yeah.

I’ve got some WOR folks very upset with today’s outcome.

1.30” here at home. High rain rate of 2.6”/hr. I guess I got lucky

The damn gutter had a clog. Water was flowing over the gutter and into the window. No major damage thankfully.

Wife calls me during a meeting to let me know the living room in my new house took on water. Christ.

Pouring here in Hartford. It’s beautiful.

Yeah this should be an interesting one to track. It has potential, but it’s heavily dependent on an environment we’re not quite sure about yet.

Radar looks solid for central and eastern CT.