WxWatcher007

Sigh. I guess it makes sense.

Wait a minute, should I get a dehumidifier for my basement?

We're all Atlantic focused, but this deserves a thread. Getting bona fide tropical impacts in southern California is rare, but the potential is there as Category Two Hurricane Kay weakens as it skirts the Baja California coast before "recurving" out to sea. While there's a fair amount of consensus on the guidance about the track, the rate of decay and proximity to land are still unknown. Discuss.

Despite a lot of handwringing a week ago about my peak season forecast, I'm feeling quite good right now. We have two simultaneous canes in the Atlantic for the first time since 2020, one is expected to be a major which gets me to 1/4 on majors, and the basin continues to gradually get better--the tropical Atlantic still remains hostile on balance, however. Aside from our two hurricanes (and Earl is about to go off) we have multiple areas to watch. Invest 95L This one is most likely to develop, but it has a small window to become a named storm. It's heading toward cooler and more stable air. It'll be a race for a name, but the NHC has 70% odds of development. Atlantic Lemon This one hasn't come off Africa yet, but it'll be coming off further south into a somewhat conducive environment. The operational guidance is lukewarm on it, but the ensembles are a bit more bullish on it getting west. if it survives the trip across the tropical Atlantic it could be another player in the western Atlantic. Central Atlantic Trough The Euro has tried leading the way in showing part of a northeast trough breaking off after interacting with Earl and developing into a tropical or subtropical low. Whether this happens will impact what happens with the Atlantic Lemon and the wave after.

Yeah I just got home from work and at the first look of the recon data I said to myself this one is about ready to take off.

Going to be a lot of updates the next two days.

As slow as it’s been getting Earl to intensify, this has been an outstanding opportunity for recon to conduct research.

Two hurricanes in the basin, one of which is forecasted to become a cat 4, and it’s dead. Can’t make it up.

Tropical storm watches up to the US/Mexico border…on the west coast…

.45” on Monday 2.24” Today

For the first time since 2020, we have simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic. 2/2 so far. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (2)Hurricanes: 6 (2)Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

I’m late to it, but Earl is a hurricane based on recon data. Dropsonde and SFMR show it. Not made official yet by the NHC.

Euro goes from the least aggressive model to the most. The 12z run develops the next three waves coming off Africa, including our current orange.

Teach me your ways.

Recon is back out there and it looks like Earl has recovered. I will say, this one has been resilient in the face of some awful environmental conditions.

More tropical in San Diego than the entirety of the US Atlantic and Gulf coast.

Do you see any red flags for below normal precip this winter?

Thinking I cross 2" on the day with this next (and final) line pushing through.

Months of rain in two days. Very impressive stuff. A lot of big rain events around the country this season.

Hmm, I am on the low side too compared to surrounding stations. Will need to check the VP2 I guess.

New lemon from the NHC on the coming African wave. Happy peak season even in a bad MDR year.

All time floods up there with Irene.