WxWatcher007

Now would be a great time for a classic euro double down run. A tight 980mb low slingshotting into GON.

Hopefully we can get a little more organization for rainfall purposes.

We knowingly endorse this (likely) fraudulent run of the GFS.

No long post because I'm moving lol but it's interesting how basically the two areas with lowest odds of development last Sunday are now the only game in town after 97L got smothered by tropical Atlantic stability. Still think whatever pops along the East Coast in a few days is non-tropical. Still low odds of development in the Gulf but at least there's a low. I know it looks rough out there on the guidance but the basin is gradually getting better. Not sure when we're going to start seeing a response on the guidance, especially with a favorable CCKW and MJO coming.

Oh how we pray for the 06z GFS. The monotony has been awful.

Nothing really to write home about yet. Hope you’re able to get some meaningful rain.

I was watching it last week Doesn't look tropical verbatim on the guidance. The low would need to develop further south IMO. We actually need the rain up here so I’d take a 06z GFS—tropical or not—in a heartbeat.

Summer at its finest.

Despite very low odds currently, the Gulf low has been designated Invest 98L.

Saw a man on a lawnmower the other day and all he was doing was kicking up a pile of dust.

Oof. Might go 0/3. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure is developing over the north-central Gulf of Mexico just offshore of southeastern Louisiana. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple of days as it drifts west-southwestward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. For more information on the system, see products issued by the National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Forecaster Roberts

Nice little nighttime tower up here for a storm that just missed.

This. I’m obviously a tropical weenie. I’ve spent my entire life fascinated with the complexity and power of tropical cyclones. I chase now, which often brings me to places where people will be profoundly impacted, even in non-major events. I try to keep my opinions focused on the facts and interpret things objectively. I know not everyone can or wants to do that, but it’s a better learning experience that way IMO.

Yep, that haze over the coastline is SAL. As bad as it is though, it was much worse just a few weeks ago. July 31 Today It just…takes time.

I think I went something like 21/10/5. It’ll be hard to get 18 more NS, but the other two are doable. Given the western Atlantic. Need October to make up for a dead first 1/3 - 2/3 of August though.

I don’t remember this, but it looks beautiful.

We’re better off than we were two weeks ago, but it’s still objectively ugly, especially in the eastern and central Atlantic as a result of stability and mid level dry air more than anything. It’s a false start. We need to be patient and see if this advertised pattern change is realized. If it’s not, we’re probably cooked for anything well above normal. I think hyperactive is off the table.

Basin still sucks right now.

It’s become a broken record at this point, but the Atlantic is just too hostile right now.

Today was very impressive here. High of 98.5 and the humidity was about as high end as you can get around here.

I wouldn’t blame ‘em. I’ve been outside all morning and I usually like testing my physical limits of heat and cold—it’s rough for me.

This is real heat out here. Contractor had to stop work the house was so hot. VP2 says it feels like 110 outside lol