WxWatcher007

Good stuff today. Drove down to the Marlborough/East Hampton to chase the cell. Ended up encountering torrential rain and flash flooding so I had to pull off for a bit. Caught small hail accumulation on the way back. Terrain is awful in CT for a chase but you make it work. Edit: one more

I ended up chasing it. Too late to see the severe hail but it was a good storm with flooding and hail. Will post more later.

That cell north of Marlborough looks pretty good. Kinda surprised it isn’t severe warned for hail.

The signal I started talking about earlier in the week is growing. As you can see below, I think it’s fair to say the environment will be favorable especially the latter portion of next week. Two areas to watch IMO 1) The western Caribbean/Bay of Campeche—this is far and away the prime zone as a CAG develops and shear drops off next week. High likelihood something pops here. 2) SE US Coast—the likelihood is much lower here given the lack of warm SSTs at the moment but as a font sinks down next week there could be something subtropical or weak tropical that pops along that area of focus. 12z GFS hints at it and both the GEFS/EPS have some low probabilities there.

Not a perfect tool but this should help. https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Good eye!

Absolutely. Hurricanes like Michael and Charley are anomalies.

It's probably a miss, but if you're looking for eye candy the 12Z GFS has it for you. Nice cane right off the east coast mid month out of the pattern we've been discussing.

Agree. From what I've seen the last few seasons, the Euro is probably still best at distinguishing the real signals for TC genesis from the amp happy bias we tend to see from the GFS and its ensembles, but the Euro (and ensembles) in the last 2-3 seasons has also had a complete whiff or two in a given season. IIRC, the Euro and ensembles totally missed forecasting the development of Dorian--like not a single member of the EPS showed a tropical storm developing even as the wave was organizing. I mean, I guess that's why you blend guidance and look at the environment independently. Remember Irma took a bit of a beating when it scraped the north coast of Cuba. I'll always be a believer that if Irma didn't take that west jog it would have impacted the Keys or SW FL as a 5. It had completed an ERC and was an absolute buzzsaw just before scraping Cuba and quickly intensified right after. Man, that environment was primed for a monster.

Long range EPS has been consistent in showing potential activity in the western Caribbean or Gulf during that period too. There’s a window there. I’d favor development in the western Caribbean right now given the SSTs and Climo but that’s speculation this far out. It’s obviously not to the same extent as getting a strike in New England, but you kinda need to hit on a narrow set of possible steering patterns to get a Miami or thereabouts direct impact. If we’re talking about the most likely heading for an impact—due west or wnw—you’d need either a stout ridge over the top in place or one building. Easier said than done. Especially if we’re talking about September or October IMO when any trough could erode a ridge. Other ways could do it I suppose (due north from the Caribbean I guess) but I think that’s an even longer shot.

CSU has released their new outlook. “We have maintained our above-average forecast for the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Current neutral ENSO conditions are anticipated to persist for the next several months. While sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are near to slightly below normal, subtropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

Posting the tweet to properly cite, but the images show a potentially conducive pattern ahead.

Both the GEFS and EPS have a little signal for some type of tropical development in the Gulf or Caribbean around mid month. It'd fit climo and that's where the best SSTs and TCHP are right now (especially Caribbean). Just wait until the peak of the season. There's always one run that goes nuclear for the region Seven straight years. I think it's more multi-decade oscillation for early stuff and climate change for stronger, more moisture laden, and slower tropical systems. Most of what we see in May is still weak stuff. I've heard some say that if we saw hurricanes in May, that'd probably change the starting date, because people need a different level of communication and prep for that. I liked that they started doing regular outlooks on May 15.

Y’all are ridiculous

Maybe LWX has something? What specifically are you looking to compile?

I changed my FB cover photo to a GOES image of Isaias since it's the first day of the hurricane season...and people thought there was a hurricane rolling up the coast, despite the date saying August 2020 and the caption saying Tropical Storm Isaias. I had to put out a post saying it was a photo from 2020. I don't usually laugh at these things but

I'm retired. I'm harmless now.

WOAH I don’t get a cameo in all that???

Just a quick and lazy update on my part. Hurricane season officially begin tomorrow. There's a slight but growing signal that the first legitimate window for development in the western Atlantic (including western Caribbean) opens up near the middle of the month. To be clear, it's still early, but we're now starting to see that western Atlantic minimally conducive from a SST standpoint (just recall SSTs were below 26C ten days ago for 91L) and guidance suggests that wind shear in the western Atlantic will be lower and we could see a favorable MJO state for development near the middle of the month. Anything that develops in the western Caribbean would have a shot at decent development given the oceanic environment. Long way to go but something to keep an eye on. As you can see below, this is a climo favored spot in the first 2/3 of June.

20/9/4

I know some others wrote on the wall, but I read your post and went through this thread and drafted a note. Thoughts? Perfectly fine if some think we should write individually, but I think it encompasses many of the thoughts shared in this thread.

Enjoy

Very nice light show here tonight