WxWatcher007

Was shoveling this morning at -1. Snow depth was between 9-13” overall. Pretty crazy to get a 6” event without even an advisory.

That was just a one off post from me but it’s southern VA. If they’re beating climo in the first 1/3 of December it’s notable no matter the amount. Anyway. I’m liking the weekend. Never wavered on that.

Winter storm warnings from Roanoke to Williamsburg…can’t make it up.

That may work in your favor about a week from now…

GFS now following the NAM with a little snow early Wednesday in SNE.

It’s an entirely different planet. Wild stuff.

Over performer. Finished with 6.2” of fluff. Biggest event of the season.

It’s all good haha. I was just busting. Hopefully SNE and WXW1 can cash in soon. Just have to hope something pops. The model runs are all over the place as to be expected but I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that folks should be meaningfully on the board by mid month.

It was just funny how all the posts before yours was a lamentation and then you swoop in with clipper snow. 3.7” as of 45 minutes ago. It really is beautiful out. I’ve been moving into WXW2 in a short sleeve shirt all day. As much as I love snow that was not fun. Heading back to CT tomorrow but likely back in time for the more robust system midweek. Hoping to setup the VP2 then.

Dude…let the SNE venting be done in peace

3.7” as of 5:45

Someone years ago, maybe @donsutherland1, ran an analysis and there’s actually higher precipitation around Dec 25 than other parts of the month.

Already 1.2” of fluff from last night and this morning.

13th still on the Euro. Models will waffle for a while. Main takeaway is that the pattern is ripe for something. No need to live and die on each run.

Winter weenie souls from Manhattan to Methuen are at stake.

Imperative that we cash in on one of these…

BTV now going with 4” here. Should be a good little clipper. Let’s keep juicing through game time.

We proceed with extreme caution

BTV is down on it, but some models are looking juicy

Anger mounting under sunny skies Southeast ridges crushing souls Yule-tide carols being dumped by a choir And AC installs are apropos Everybody knows, a cutter and some rising dews Help to make the season right Tiny tots with their eyes filled with tears Will find it hard to sleep tonight They know the Grinch on his way (oh he’s comin’) He's loaded rain, and warmth, and woodsheds on his sleigh And every mother's child is gonna cry As fathers smash all their presents nearby And so I'm offering this simple phrase To kids from one to ninety-two Although it's been said many times, many ways Merry Christmas to you

Dark thoughts on this Saturday morning

The Grinch is always lurking. Just a part of life now. If we got a blizzard on the 12-13th I’d still worry about a disaster in advance of Christmas.

Congrats to all that got snow!

I want to say it’s a “what can go wrong, will go wrong” type of pattern, but stepping back, we weren’t expecting most of NE to get snow in the first week of December until the models sold us that hopium of a SNE event. In fact, we were expecting a torch the week prior. That system trended colder at the low levels at the last second, giving more people frozen than we assumed just 24 hours prior, and today some of those areas are getting measurable, albeit minor, from a Fraud 5. The pattern is far from ideal, but we’re looking into the few days before Christmas now and a torch looks increasingly unlikely with plenty of shortwaves moving through the flow. The tradeoff is no KU potential, but I’m sure 90% of the subforum would take cold and no Grinch with minor stuff delivering at least some cover through Christmas than some high risk high reward pattern. If we get to the 20th and it’s snake eyes, then it’s time to sound the alarm.