WxWatcher007

On cue 8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.6°N 62.0°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 935 mb Max sustained: 145 mph

Latest dropsonde found a 936mb pressure w/ 14kt wind. The last VDM was at 942mb. Expect a more powerful storm at the 8am advisory…

Pressure dropping like a rock with some big FL and SFMR winds at the center.

Rapid intensification of yore Go to bed with a 1, wake up to a 4.

If it can avoid an ERC. Exceptional pressure falls

I don't believe so. It looks like Erin's core isn't being hindered at all by it. Dropsonde in the NW eyewall measured 89kt at the surface and 99kt just off the deck at 925mb.

As @Boston Bulldogsaid, Erin is taking off. After struggling with SAL and drier air, Erin looks to have mixed that out and organized substantially, with a closed eyewall for hours now per recon, much better vertical alignment, and a tightening RMW. In the image below, note how the first pass had a weaker sampling of winds in the southern half of the storm, but subsequent passes now show a more symmetrical distribution of strongest winds in the eyewall. As the NHC notes, the environment is conducive for explosive intensification. Wind shear is low for now, the outflow continues to become more impressive, and moisture looks like much less of an issue. The islands, even though there are likely to be some impacts, are incredibly fortunate that they are not in the direct path of what is going to become a buzzsaw in the next 24-36 hours.

Fall can be nice until about December 1

VDM puts it at 984mb

981.4mb extrapolated

Right. I’m guessing the central pressure has dropped a few mb since then. This looks primed to take off now.

I’ve been sold all year on the SW Atlantic being the seasonal hot spot. Erin was the first real test and we’re seeing how that’s likely to go… This won’t be the last time the east coast is watching a major imo, but waves actually have to get to that part of the basin first.

Recon approaching for another center pass. We’ll see just how quickly this is intensifying shortly.

Yeah, zero concern in the long range from me right now. As we saw with Erin, these long range model runs aren’t good for much..

This is about as clear a recurve pattern as you can get for the US east coast. Has been for days and days...

Looks like you're in the same boat as us, but Newfoundland is still close.

Finally found a way to make a loop of SAL

There is a pretty good signal on the GEFS and EPS that the following wave will have a chance to develop in the central Atlantic, and a more modest signal that the wave train is probably going to be active for the next week or so--aided by the MJO and passage of the CCKW. Dry air and stability will remain hurdles waves need to overcome, but as we see each year, often times the lead wave (failed 96L or whatever it was) opens the door for the next one. It's unclear how much SAL will get back into the pathway, but look at how Erin cleared the way.

Except Fiona! What a great chase that was.

I don't think people realize how hard it is to get true CVs this way. Not just here in New England, but the entire U.S. coastline. I went back the other day and ran some numbers. Since the start of our exceptionally busy period of Atlantic activity in 2017, there have been 157 named storms in the basin. Only 19, or 12% of those systems, have been CVs--which I defined as developing within about 5 degrees of the Cabo Verde Islands. Of those 19 CVs, only 3 (16%) have impacted land. Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Larry in 2021. Now, to the point that some have made, Florence and Larry were infamously locks to go OTS before they weren't, but statistically that's rare. CVs that made landfall accounts for just 1.9% of all the storms that developed in the 2017-25 period. It takes an extraordinary set of circumstances for CVs to hit the US.

Yeah that doesn't look like a TC to me despite the southwesterlies. That was a quick trip by recon lol. 98L is out of time.

Forecast to be 120kt in 72 hours, so this should take off once it can shake off possible dry air entrainment. Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025 Erin has become better organized during the past several hours. The last few NOAA and Air Force Reserve aircraft passes through the cyclone have indicated the formation of an eyewall, with the Air Force Reserve aircraft reporting 700-mb flight-level winds of 75 kt northeast of the center. In addition, conventional satellite imagery shows the development of a central dense overcast, and a recently received WSFM microwave overpass shows a well-defined ring of shallow to moderate convection in the 37 GHz imagery. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt and Erin becomes the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The initial motion is 290/15. The subtropical ridge to the north will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward into the weekend. Encroaching mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a weakness to develop in the ridge during the latter part of the forecast period, and this will result in the hurricane gradually turning northwestward and northward by 120 h. The guidance remains in fairly good agreement through about 60-72 hours. After that time, there are some differences in both the forward speed and cross-track spread with the turn toward the north. The regional hurricane models again lie along the western edge of the guidance envelope, while the GFS and Google DeepMind models remain on the eastern edge. Although still spread, the guidance envelope has not shifted significantly since the last advisory, and the new track forecast is an update of the previous forecast. There is still uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range. Erin is currently in a favorable environment for strengthening, although there are some uncertainties on whether dry air is entraining into the core. The improved low-level structure indicates potential for rapid strengthening, and based on this the first 36-48 h of the new intensity forecast shows a faster development rate. After 48 h, the hurricane is forecast to encounter some northerly to northwesterly vertical shear that should at least slow development. However, the global and regional hurricane models are in good agreement that Erin will become a powerful and increasingly large hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic over the weekend and into next week. It should be noted that the the Florida State SuperEnsemble and the US Navy COAMPS-TC models forecast higher peak intensities than the official forecast, so it would not be too surprising if Erin became stronger than currently forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the weekend. 3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week. 4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf by the middle part of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 18.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 19.8N 61.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 20.6N 63.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 21.6N 66.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 22.7N 67.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 23.8N 69.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 26.5N 70.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 30.3N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 15 Location: 18.2°N 56.1°W Moving: WNW at 18 mph Min pressure: 996 mb Max sustained: 75 mph First hurricane of the Atlantic season

The NHC has not officially declared this a hurricane on its site.