WxWatcher007

Ah, I was referring to radar for low level structure. It’s really hard getting regional radars.

Can you post? I can’t get the regional radars to work.

C4 now

Looks like the center is near the coast now, so we’re going to find out soon just how intact that core still is.

Live cam of Montego Bay looks even more ferocious now.

The live feed looks fierce right now.

As we are all rightfully concerned with the impact on Jamaica right now, I also want to take a moment to discuss the environment after Melissa leaves Jamaica. What happens next is highly dependent on structure--how much the mountainous terrain disrupt Melissa's inner core. Melissa has an very small core. On one hand, that increases the odds that over the coming hours the center is significantly disrupted, reducing the risk of reintensification over water. On the other, such an intense inner core is inertially stable, making it possible that if a strong enough core emerges from the coast, it is able to take advantage of the environment, if favorable enough. The key is shear, and Melissa is straddling the line (and has been lately) between favorable and more modest deep layer shear. Looking at the environment however, shear may not be as much of an issue until Melissa crosses Cuba. In fact, the shear has been subtly declining ahead of its path. The extraordinarily favorable thermal environment that helped Melissa become an upper echelon C5 isn't quite as favorable after Jamaica, but it seems to be plenty if Melissa has the time and space to reorganize. Finally, the diurnal cycle that has helped Melissa may prove favorable once again as the storm approaches Cuba later tonight. Just something to keep in mind. All dependent on how much the core is disrupted today. (Edit: and what the actual shear profile is later)

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA... ...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches). THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection. The next position update will be provided with the intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

Yep. I believe I was in one during Idalia. There was a dramatic increase and sudden shift in wind.

Would've been right on. Truly unbelievable to witness a landfall at the intensity and pressure...and to know that Wilma was 10mb deeper. Insane.

It's the center of the eye crossing land that determines landfall.

Landfall appears imminent.

Landfall appears imminent. That TC report is already highly anticipated.

You gotta respect the storm. The good chasers know that--whether in a TC or on the Plains. All of this stuff is a calculated risk to begin with, so there's no sense in putting yourself or others in unnecessary danger by driving through a storm (which I've seen in every MH I've chased), playing around with surge, or putting yourself in an unsafe structure. You can collect great data and good footage without doing all that.

Always watch those last minute trends. I never feel "comfortable" in the final track until the eyewall is on my doorstep. (Context for the lurkers--I'm a chaser lol) Yeah, the other side of possibly missing dead center is that you end up sort of stranded in the eyewall. During Laura I missed the eye but was in the RFQ of the eyewall for the entire time. It was relentless.

Was just going to post. Glad they made it out ok.

Nah, I'm no yahoo, as you know. Rule 1 is to stay away from water danger. Rule 2 is to shelter appropriately. I always make sure I do my research before traveling. I've even pulled permits for possible chase shelters before. Consult with pro mets before and during an high end event to make sure I'm not missing anything in my analysis. Dangerous, yes, but not without doing everything I can to mitigate risk to myself and others. Island roulette though is too much of a wildcard for me. No radar, fragile communication infrastructure, no true escape routes. If I were to do my first island chase, it wouldn't have been for this one.

Strongest storm on Earth this year.

Man it is SO hard to do a live stream in a storm. You're in full sensory overload in these things and trying not to get hit by debris, not to mention dealing with loss of signal/service. Respect to the people that are able to get out a live stream. They earn their keep.

The idea that we're seriously talking about gusts over 200 speaks to the exceptional power of this storm. Most people don't fully comprehend how strong that is.

Yeah, there are a lot of stronger structures from what I've heard and I'll also remind folks that although they should absolutely get extreme winds, it won't be at 185mph sustained. Friction knocks down sustained winds substantially away from exposed places right on the shoreline. Gusts? Those will be wild.

My hypothetical chase location would've been dead on.

Tied for third strongest in Atlantic history. Will be one of the strongest landfalls since Labor Day.