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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. Will those lapse rates remain through the day, though? I like seeing DCAPE over 1k but I have to admit I’m still a little skeptical. Still think it’s active, but maybe not realizing today’s full potential. I’ll readily admit though that I’m far more in my wheelhouse with tropical than severe.
  2. There is very little reason at this time to think this season will end up anything other than above average, though the MDR is a little cooler than I'd probably expect. That said, below the surface, things still look fine, especially in the western Atlantic. The monsoon trough is an issue right now in the MDR, but that won't last forever and even if it did have an extended stay, as CV season begins waves often muddle through a hostile eastern MDR to find more favorable conditions further west. No concern over a busted forecast at this time. As for the steering pattern, that's hard to predict five days out let alone 4-8 weeks. Stick with climatology and the statistical analysis of past activity. The more active, the greater the risk to the US and Caribbean.
  3. I was watching that line and then the radar went down. Looked pretty good pre-passage lol.
  4. Agree. I do think the shear forecast will make tomorrow interesting, even if instability is capped for lack of a better term. I am just dubious of the "outbreak" language in that FB post.
  5. I don't know about tornado outbreak...I care less about CAPE for that and more helicity especially near the surface. I do think tomorrow has some potential for damaging winds and maybe a couple spinners if we don't get crapvection in the morning. SPC didn't hint at an ENH this afternoon, but let's see what tomorrow holds. It does look pretty legit on paper IMO.
  6. Those are some nasty storms to the west.
  7. That’s a nice line on the 3k NAM tomorrow.
  8. I’m being whiny because I’m not in the century club, but in all seriousness, the last time HFD hit 100 in August was 2001. It was 2006 for BDL. July is really our month for upper echelon heat to be realized. Six day heat wave with 4/6 days at or above 95 is impressive though.
  9. Looks like there’s always next year for me to hit 100. Lot of fails down here lately.
  10. 93 here at noon. Gonna need to fire on all cylinders to hit 100 imby today.
  11. Letting go how those storms in CT evaporated on Thursday, tomorrow looks legit if we don’t screw up destabilization.
  12. 83.9/74 at 9am here. Not sure I can touch 100 today. ENH risk out in western NY.
  13. Just a little too much shear and dry air right now. Really need the basin pattern to get a little more favorable. Just not there yet but it’s coming. You can tell by how the guidance is starting to get traceable waves across the Atlantic in about 7-10 days.
  14. High of 95.7. Underperformer.
  15. Did some yard work this morning. Definitely hot, but not the worst.
  16. As a Sox fan, it’s unbelievable
  18. I came here for this content 850s all day
  19. Time to lay down forecasts. What are max temps at some of these stations this weekend? Anyone cracking 100°?
  20. That’s a great camera. I’ll have to get one of those lol
  21. Well that would make for a bad day
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