WxWatcher007

Yes. I'm sitting this winter out. Seriously. I'm zipping it and falling back to obs, pictures, and Arctic blast talk. While I appreciate pattern discussion no matter the season, we've had a lot of epic winter patterns that have resulted in middling to objectively awful results this decade. I canceled last winter the first week in January after that epic modeling collapse, and even with 3.8" to date I still thought 27-31" was doable in deference to the pattern. I finished with 19.8". I just can't do it anymore. Winter has fallen to my least favorite season, and it has some work to do to get out of the dog house. Hopefully, my location change this winter will help.

Let’s just make sure it’s not a two week cold period with no production. I can’t get on board with pattern talk anymore. I need results.

Fitting for this all time hurricane

We stopped talking about Melissa here but sure enough it looks like a hit is on the table for Atlantic Canada. St. John’s may get a good storm.

That’s incredible. It’ll take a long time to recover.

Must have been some poor group of vessels in the path of it?

Some of the worst on record. I’m tired of it.

From Michael Lowry

Maybe that system that tries to dive down into the Gulf tries, but I still stand by my August forecast that the season halts in October. You have to get something tangible to those climo favored regions to generate a TC and I don’t think that’s likely.

Disastah

2:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 Location: 19.7°N 76.4°W Moving: NE at 10 mph Min pressure: 952 mb Max sustained: 125 mph

With recon done I doubt there are any new updates to intensity outside of whatever they decide at 2am.

Not sure how much time it has left, but it’s really trying to intensify.

Given how light the wind was, even if it missed by a touch I would bet it doesn’t make much of a difference.

Center sonde has a 954mb reading with 6kt wind so despite the satellite appearance, it hasn’t translated into strength in a substantial way yet. Obviously still need to see the SW and NE quadrants.

Not impossible given the dropsonde just before landfall, but there’s going to be an extensive review of all the data and observations to determine the final intensity of this one. This may very well be the strongest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history.

Thanks. Maybe it’s a mid level feature working its way down. That radar and the rapidly improving IR would suggest that Melissa is reorganizing rapidly. Will take a bit to intensify imo, and nothing meaningful will happen intensity wise if the eyewall isn’t fully closed.

Very interesting and conflicting data. This was from the VDM. Very quick recon trip. Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT PA NO EYE EVIDENT ON RADAR

The satellite improvement happened FAST

I have a non-chaser friend in Montego Bay. Right near the water. They are safe, but the first floor of their place was wrecked by the wind.

The collapse of FL winds and the central pressure rising 60mb says it all. At least for now. The 5pm discussion mentions that the intensity estimate was “highly uncertain”. I doubt the winds are that high looking at that first round of data but recon is finding it just as it exits Jamaica. IR is already improving so we’ll see what it can do the next ~8 hours. The core looks intact enough for a reorganization & intensification phase.

Recon is in there (only one flight from what I see) and it looks like the center weakened substantially based on initial data. 952.8mb extrapolated.