WxWatcher007

It's a thread the needle type deal because too far of a trend and it'll get ripped apart by the Antilles/Cuba. Long way to go though...guidance all over the place. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Adams

The only caution flag is that we've had several seasons recently where the Atlantic was dead in August, only to come to life in September and October. Now, my forecast contemplates that and doesn't foresee some sort of structural change that makes the basin more favorable, but I highly doubt we end up with nothing.

The invest doesn’t look half bad. Fun times in a coin flip environment.

My God

In all seriousness…the videos coming out of Nepal are unreal. Legitimately unreal. There’s very little you can do in a situation like that. So sad.

I need to consider a snowmobile now that I have SLK as an option in the winter. A lot of trails up here.

Commie

I think that’ll be very hard as climo is still climo, but at this rate it’s on the board.

Awesome, congrats. With an AN temp winter likely up here I think that opens the door for something juicy. There’s nothing like LES. Yeah we gotta do it at some point. Last year got away from me with my wife’s new job and all but boy did we hit the jackpot. Just over 150” here at SLK with numerous periods below zero. It was heavenly. But yeah we definitely need a chase. If we went down to Buffalo we have the benefit of food, good road infrastructure, and meeting up with the guys out there that chase every year locally. And of course, Watertown is Watertown.

Extraordinarily tough sledding across the basin this season. I kind of feel like this one is important to my peak season forecast.

95L is out of time.

Yeah so much for my thought of a cooler start to September yesterday

And last winter we had two big dogs. Can we repeat?

RIP to one of the GOATs, and inspiration for one of the great Panic Room creations in history. Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro I'm begging of you Please don't take my snow Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro Please don't take it Just because you can We went all in on 12z's run Of 6 to 12 for everyone With crashing temps Screw jobs for none Now Bob is out And Matt is done You've turned our snow To clouds and sun I punt it all, New England's won Euro I thought about it in my sleep And at your altar now I weep I'm praying, for some snow to keep Euro The false prophet has won again My back is broken as a man I've prayed and prayed But I've taken all I can Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro I'm begging of you Please don't take my snow Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro Please don't take it Just because you can Euro Eurooooooo

+1=Torch?

Similar to winter

Definitely a cluster of ensembles trying to show a window in the western Atlantic, but you gotta survive to maybe take advantage of that.

This. As an old friend in the Mid-Atlantic forum used to say religiously…just give me the precip and I’ll take my chances.

Would sign in a heartbeat.

Running out of runway. Probably good for my forecast though lol.

70% now

BDL climo is 82/60 on Friday. A high of 85° is not a torch lol.

Looking forward to your posts in the NNE winter thread because if you say this in January the SNE weenies may march on your town with cannon and torches.

unusable

Also, busy morning in the WXW2 backyard. It’s like they arrived for a meeting this morning. Just stood around for an hour lol.