WxWatcher007

Thank you so much for your reports. I hope you and your family/property make it through ok. Slim pickings the last two seasons. Hurricane chaser convergence is an interesting experience.

Right at landfall. Good short range forecast by GDM and a few others.

Max winds at 105 looks about right given onshore obs and gusts. Y’all do this every hurricane lol.

He’s bored in his backyard

60mph gusts starting to be reported along the coast.

Yes, despite the erosion of the low level inner core, there’s still plenty of deep convection and lightning. This will still be a strong hurricane, as the NHC has said for a while now.

We'll see. Recon is showing maybe some hints of shear starting to impact the core. We're very fortunate the shear is here.

I'll just add note the deep convection with lightning that continues to fire around the center. As long as that happens, this isn't weakening any.

I see 951.6mb extrap. A very substantial fall.

Idk. While the impacts in the Mid-Atlantic and northeast may be more mundane, I do think that the fact this is going to eventually interact with a shortwave as it pulls north is a red flag for inland areas that are on the eastern side of the center. That combo can be a prolific tornado producer. I also think we need to consider how this holds together inland. This is one of the areas where models like HAFS have been falling short. Now we see this being fairly well put together inland, and that means hurricane gusts could be possible well inland. From the 11am discussion in part: Weakening will occur after landfall, but sustained hurricane-force winds will likely occur near and along Isaias's track up to 100 miles inland from the coast into southern Alabama, and gusts to hurricane force could extend even farther north into central Alabama. Isaias is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by 36 hours when it is over northern Alabama.

Question for @Sey-Mour Snow @weatherwiz @CT Rain How much would CT benefit from having its own mesonet? Does being a small state cut against its need? I know we already have several airport stations around the state, but would a mesonet aid in long term data collection and forecasting in a way that would outweigh the cost of setup and maintenance?

Yeah, on a NNE heading. Due north may not happen until it's on final approach, which is important for shear purposes.

One thing that I alluded to earlier but want to say now...both HAFS A & B have this peaking in the next few hours around 115kt. HAFS-B gets this to 123kt around 18z. If we get anywhere close to that it's going to be hard to avoid a major landfall.

Not on radar, but that tower is producing substantial lightning now in the northern part of the eyewall.

Updated images. Note the new tower going up around the eyewall.

FWIW, which is not much at the moment, the GFS/Euro/Euro AI and ensembles have troughing roll through the eastern U.S. around October 18th. It could be enough to trigger another coastal.

Would love to see recon sample the eastern eyewall again. It just passed the NE portion of the eyewall. 958.7mb extrapolated so far.

First light

Recon is heading in for another pass.

Sorry, here was the D3 text and categorical risk. Doesn't say tor risk but I think we know... ...Delmarva into the Carolinas... Considerable strengthening of the deep-layer wind field is forecast on Sunday in advance of the midlevel trough. However, considerable cloud cover and areas of precipitation appear likely to limit air mass destabilization within the poleward-expanding warm sector. Nonetheless, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s will support pockets of modest instability, especially in areas where cloud breaks may occur. And given the presence of relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear, a conditional risk for severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes will exist Sunday into Sunday evening. Higher severe weather probabilities may be required in later forecasts if subsequent model data indicate greater instability than that currently depicted.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 5 (6) Hurricanes: 3 (1) Major Hurricanes: 1 (1) Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias (MH) Homebrew delivers again...

Yeah, very tough call. Just a few hours made the difference here, though it's incredibly impressive how well GDM has been through the entirety of this one. Like you said in another post, it was easy to hedge east for this one, and GDM never backed down on a higher end peak. Well, keep in mind that Idalia hit one of the least populated areas of the state. Idalia's eyewall was legit, but less damage=less need for retirement. That won't be the case with this one, even if it's weakening at the end, because it's hitting real population centers. Not to mention the yet to be seen inland impacts in the south. Agree with this too. There's going to be a line of discussion here tonight about why we're not seeing G125 across the landfall zone and it'll be because 1) that's not how things work lol and 2) the strongest winds in a decaying core may be concentrated in a few spots. Still bad to be clear with other impacts and with wind itself, but as I've found, eyewall dynamics and impacts are more mesoscale than people tend to realize.

7:20 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 Location: 27.0°N 87.6°W Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 120 mph