WxWatcher007

It might be climo, but even in our worst years there are still windows that open up. The problem this season is that you have numerous hurdles that are much higher than normal due to our strengthening Nino. Not only are MDR SSTa numbers pretty cool, but there's not the same level of OHC that you'd normally expect heading into the climatological peak, even in the Caribbean. That SSTa look above also raises an issue that has been wrecking the MDR throughout the 2020s, subsidence and stability. That warmth in the subtropics screams stability issues. Even in recent hot years, it's taken a lot of effort in the peak season to offset repeated dry air and stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. Alarm bells are already going off with instability well below normal again in the MDR. Dust so far has been near average, so seeing this lack of stability above even with relatively normal dust conditions is a red flag. Then you have shear, which we all know is worse across much of the basin in a Nino year. Well, the graveyard is extra barren right now with an ugly shear look. The images below come from Michael Lowry, who does some awesome tropical work. Shear should drop as we move into better climo, but if we see persistent TUTTs across the basin it's going to be hard to get much activity going, let alone anything high end. So, it's going to be hard. Waves that survive being suffocated by stability may very well get decapitated by shear as they try to get into the Caribbean. Homebrew, especially in the subtropics region well off the East Coast or north of the Antilles seems to be the only way we have decent development this season, which fits strong Nino years.

Something will pop in the subtropics eventually, but this ain’t it. Today was actually the first day I started thinking about my annual peak season forecast. It’ll be a dead basin this season, but how dead is TBD.

Could be trouble in that area in Danbury and points south.

I had to complain hard. Picked up 1.13" in about 50 minutes. Haha my site is rarely ever the highest rainfall or highest temperature in town. I track very close to HFD, which is only a few miles away. I do well with rad cooling though.

Awful. Only .05 yesterday

.63”

Congrats Enfield

Flooding to the west of me Downpours to the east Here I am Stuck in the middle with you

We dodged a bullet in CT for sure. I’m barely over my .50 threshold. I have as much here in Saranac Lake—hundreds of miles away—as my CT backyard does. What a terrible place for interesting wx.

It’s based on grid point in the link I posted above.

Wiz, are you seeing what's happening around Albany? Looking at the ARI chart for the Albany area, for a 24 hour period a 500yr ARI is about 8.25" and 9.25" for 1000yr ARI. At a 90% confidence interval--so the ranges are a bit broader. https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=ct

I think I agree. My backyard gets porked either way.

9.08” of rain reported just SE of Albany. 5” in the last three hours.

The peak has come and gone. Yes they would. People always complain. Suppression depression Cold/dry until it’s warm/wet

3k NAM and HRRR placement of that low are radically different. Leading to very different results. HRRR would basically end the rain in CT by noon while Nammy would pour across most of the state (of course, everywhere but mby).

Storm total of 0.09” at WXW1 Storm total of 0.53” at WXW2 I mean what can you say

Somebody is in for a rough morning.

15% chance of an area within 25 miles seeing rainfall that exceeds flash flood guidance. Kind of similar to SPC outlooks of having a certain percentage chance of seeing severe within 50mi or whatever it is. Flash flood guidance varies depending on recent rainfall (among other things, probably). Caveat is moderate risk on rainfall is not the same as a mod risk for severe. When I see a mod rain risk it’s noteworthy but not uncommon. A high risk is serious though—they almost always precede catastrophic flooding somewhere within the zone.

We approve.

I think my area does a really good job at underperforming on every type of weather other than CAD in winter. I think CT gets a general 1-3” but where it pours it might get ugly fast (most likely western/SW CT). I’m out on predicting anything interesting imby until something interesting happens.

I’m going to take the Kev & TBlizz approach. WXW1 doesn’t get more than .50” total.