WxWatcher007

Well that would be a problem.

.05”

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0877 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1247 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Areas affected...Southeastern New York through Western New England Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 281646Z - 282245Z SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have developed across portions of New York into New England. Flash flooding is likely as the storms interact with the terrain. DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have formed in several clusters from central New York through portions of western New England this afternoon. These clusters have a history of producing multiple-inch-per-hour rainfall rates. Duration has also been a distinguishing factor as some portions of central New York have seen heavy rainfall for several hours. The clusters of storms have developed ahead of a strong upper level negatively tilted trough, on the leading edge of a potent low level jet advecting high PWATs to 1.5 to 1.75 inches right into eastern New York and western New England. With plentiful terrain in these areas, the combination of upslope into the south-facing slopes of the mountains, heavy rain that's likely to persist for multiple hours, and plentiful moisture allowing storms to train and backbuild will all combine to make flash flooding likely in this region through the afternoon. While the heaviest rain has been in Central New York thus far, streamers of storms will fill in most areas in eastern New York over to western New England through the afternoon as peak heating and instability advection both increase the coverage, severity, and duration of the strongest storms. Urban and small stream flooding are most likely, especially off the south-facing slopes of the mountains and in the urban areas subject to the longer durations of heavy rainfall. Locally significant flash flooding can't be ruled out. High resolution CAMs guidance suggests the most persistent rains will be in the western areas from Binghamton up I-88, and for eastern areas from western Connecticut into southern Vermont from I-91 west. There remains some uncertainty for the Catskills through the Hudson Valley, where southerly flow may limit the convective coverage since terrain won't necessarily help concentrate the heaviest rainfall, and storms to the south may limit how much instability can advect into that area. Wegman

We pop up.

Good lord

Pac looking pretty active right now with a brief C5 (Genevieve) off the Mexican coast and likely close Hawaii approach from Fausto.

Low of 48 up here. Currently 64. It feels like fall and I’m not ready.

Downside up here—short summers. It’s 58.8° here at WXW2. It feels like October.

We have landfall

I need to start whining about the weather more.

After heading a little more north than projected, recon finds a slight SW jog.

Yeah. A big day.

Fortunately moving along…slowly…

Ugly stuff in SW CT

Banner year for southern Connecticut

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0702A-BERTHA.png

Yeah I'm not sure how this one isn't warned while we have a polygon extending all the way up to Ridgefield for a storm in White Plains.

That storm near Carmel, NY absolutely needs a warning.

Definitely at least 50kt based on recon so far. It's interesting how despite getting blasted by shear we're still seeing gradual organization and intensification. This would have probably been making a run toward "minimal" hurricane status if there were even slightly lower shear. Still going to be hard to get there with shear expected to increase further. Hard to intensify substantially with the vortex so misaligned though I guess Barry (which I chased years ago lol) did. You can see despite the organizational trend that it cannot wrap convection around the center. That's a pretty critical piece for significant intensification.

Pretty close to TS status if not already there.

Good to see recon out there for an extended period. The center is kind of meandering out there. You have to wonder if we see additional center reformations near the deeper convection with that northeasterly shear proving to be so strong.

The GFS, which has been playing catch up, has TD2 intensify a bit more than it did last run as it runs NW and then slides WSW below the LA coastline. AI GFS still weak.

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the depression is becoming better organized, with the low-level circulation getting better defined and increased convective banding near the center. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening. The maximum 925-mb flight-level winds reported by the aircraft so far is 34 kt, and the central pressure is near 1007 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center of the depression seems to have reformed a little to the south during the past several hours. However, the overall motion is 310/3 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. Over time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the dominant steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the northeastern United States. This should result in the depression turning to the west-northwest and eventually west at a continued slow forward speed. The new forecast track brings the center near southeastern Louisiana in about 60 h and then reaches southeastern Texas by 120 h. The new forecast track is a little south of the previous track based partly on the current position and the possibility that the forecast northeasterly shear may help steer the center a little more southward. The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and these conditions should continue for another 24-30 h. It is likely that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a tropical storm. After about 30 h, the northeasterly shear is forecast to increase, and the global models suggest it will get strong enough to destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. This should halt intensification and then cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 to 48 h, and this is in the upper portion of the intensity guidance envelope. The forecast also calls for the system to survive through 120 h. However, it could dissipate between 72-120 h, especially if it tracks north of the current forecast and has more land interaction. It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the center. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana beginning late tonight into Tuesday. 2. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm surge is possible. 3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for portions of that area later today or Tuesday. 4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 28.5N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Oh yeah, we don't disagree there. Would need to see the center stay south and wrap convection to put anything other than a minor/modest ceiling on the table.

Shear is definitely evident in IR satellite, but unlike yesterday we are seeing more persistent convection near the center with pressure falling and flight level winds going up as a result. The shear has picked up substantially, which will make it very hard for the kind of vortex alignment necessary for a faster pace of intensification. And dry air is still an issue, though the persistent convection has helped some in mixing it out. Beating an old drum, but obviously land interaction will be key to future prospects, and there's still a split between legacy models and AI ensembles. The superensemble of legacy GFS/Euro still show a more northern track that takes this into the central Gulf coast. This is certainly a reasonable outcome if TD2 continues on a NNW heading. The AI ensembles however continue to show the risk that this gets "suppressed" a bit, and skirts the Louisiana coastline. The northerly shear probably keeps some of the worst weather off the coast, but there could still be plenty of impacts in rainfall and wind with banding. The higher end solutions seem to be off the table, but modest intensification still seems to be a reasonable expectation provided there are no sudden changes in the organization of the center.