WxWatcher007

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 The convective organization of the depression has not changed much since the prior advisory. Much of the associated deep convection is displaced slightly to the north of the estimated surface center, but recently a new convective burst has emerged closer to this location. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for now, consistent with the latest T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. An ASCAT-C pass is expected to arrive shortly after this advisory issuance and will be helpful in reassessing the position and intensity of the system. The depression is moving slowly eastward (080/4 kt) within weak steering currents to the south of an upper trough over the southeastern United States. The track models are in good agreement that the system should move eastward to east-northeastward through Thursday while passing to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. While the center is forecast to remain well offshore, its passage will likely produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. A turn toward the northeast and north is predicted by Friday as the system moves within the flow between a shortwave trough over Texas and a strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic. There remains significant along- and cross-track spread in the track guidance regarding this northward turn, with the AI-based models on the right side of the envelope and generally faster than the physics-based guidance. The updated NHC forecast is slower than the previous one from 48-96 h to bring it closer to the latest corrected consensus (HCCA), but remains on the fast and right side of the latest models. Users should closely monitor forecast updates given the below-average confidence in this forecast. High oceanic heat content, moist mid-levels, and upper-level divergence should allow the compact system to intensify during the next few days. The only limiting factor appears to be southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is forecast to strengthen later this week as the system approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Most skillful models show the system becoming a hurricane over the central Gulf, and the latest forecast shows a similar rate of intensification and peak intensity as the prior forecast, generally following the more aggressive Google DeepMind and HCCA aids. Due to strong shear, it is likely that the system peaks in strength before reaching the coast as a hurricane. The cyclone is also expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, and the anticipated convective and motion asymmetries will likely cause rain and wind impacts to extend far from the center on the eastern side of the storm. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and watches could be required on Wednesday. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 2. The system will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 3. Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico: The depression is expected to strengthen and could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.1N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.5N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 23.2N 91.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.3N 89.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 26.1N 88.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 28.8N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 34.1N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 39.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Yeah...I was skeptical at first, but this one is coming. It's just a question of if it tracks in from the west or tracks in from the south. Just wish we had a big trough to amp this up into a raging sou'easter as it rolls northeast into the region. 42.4 here at WXW1. Coldest night so far on tap.

Congrats on being retired.

Now that we do have a well defined center and recon data that will be incorporated into the models, we should hopefully start to see gradual consensus on the eventual track and intensity. I'm still a touch skeptical, but far less so than yesterday given how much more compact this tends to be. These BoC systems can really produce. Just goes to show how even in an otherwise historically inactive season things can change quickly.

Weren’t the remnants of Ida pretty bad in the MA? She’s been, but we have a rule where birthday plans are nonnegotiable. I’ve hopped on flights around my birthday to leave her behind for chases. I guess the bill is coming due. Literally and figuratively.

The only hurricane chance in two years…and it falls right around my wife’s birthday. Can’t make it up.

Very sensitive solutions still based on track. What’s becoming increasingly likely however is that the rain associated with this extends well into the south, mid-Atlantic, and maybe further north.

Winter preview?

All the torch and stein calls have…not worked out…

Prior models had high pressure over the region shunting any remnants south. The trend has been the opposite lately. AI models also have a solid trough passage in the days after. Could be a signal for a widespread freeze through a good part of the region.

Well if you hate that…you’ll absolutely loathe this

What’s your elevation?

18z Euro is stronger than 12z (about 989mb at landfall), but the AI version is weak. I'm not sure I have a good handle on this one, either. A more northeasterly motion should align enough for some modest intensification, but much like Edouard, it's going to need time to coalesce. The ceiling is a hurricane, but I'm just not sure we get there. But we need a well defined low before hurricane models even get a good handle on things.

A few days ago we thought that first flakes were possible as some of the guidance brought the coldest temperatures of the season into the region this week, and today some of the high peaks are seeing snow over in my WXW2 (SLK) neck of the woods as well as out east toward @powderfreak. Last year was a heavenly first winter for me in the north country, where Saranac Lake saw its first measurable on Halloween, had snow falling on every major holiday through Easter, and saw its last flakes on May 8. I recorded 154.9" of snow on just one double digit snowfall event . I witnessed (possible) diamond dust, snow falling below zero, and a -20F morning. There was continual snow cover from 11/27 to 3/16 and a peak recorded depth of 27". As a Super Nino takes hold, there's a great deal of uncertainty over how "bad" things might get with a warm winter all but guaranteed. Here in my quiet corner of the world (when I'm there), I'll continue to dream for a return to the magical times that were had not too long ago...

Need a trough rather than a high to build in to run this far enough northeast.

We LOVE to see it.

Awesome shots.

Given that this might be a late season sprawling system, definitely a good chance this is a moisture laden system. Resharing here.

Thread up now.

Yeah I think there's a chance, though there may be high pressure around that suppresses activity to our south. Still too early to know, though. Up to 70% 7 day odds in a historically favorable area for TC genesis.

The historically quiet Atlantic may have one final gasp before closing the door on the season, and this one is in the southwestern Gulf. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Kelly We've all been tracking this one for a few days, and while odds have significantly increased, there's still a fair amount of uncertainty on what this one could actually become. While development looks likely with the geographically favorable genesis location of the Bay of Campeche (the concave nature of the region promotes spin) alongside warm SSTs and an upper level pattern favorable for divergence (promoting strong convection) there are issues with westerly shear if the system is not perfectly aligned with the jet coming from the west and potentially dry air. Most guidance at least at the moment is modest in intensity as it pulls the eventual system northeast into the northern Gulf coast.

I know. I’m skeptical we ever see anything if high pressure builds in and buries that potential system south. 1899 is one of the all time greats in U.S. history imo.

@vortex95 will learn. Winter is hand to hand and town to town combat around here. Michael, Ian, Laura, Ida, Helene, Milton...just to name a few. 3k Nammy has some flakes in the high peaks this week. More likely than a big event. Deeply skeptical of leftovers here, but I think we have a shot at some Gulf development. Might close out the season of futility.

46.7° at WXW1 / 48° at HFD 33.7° at WXW2 / 27° at SLK Coldest so far at WXW2. Should reach the 20s the next few nights with SLK having a chance of reaching the teens.