WxWatcher007

Here's a loop of the last ten hours of Erin, as it enters its final act along the east coast. Note how dramatically the size of Erin has changed in just a short period of time.

@GaWx where's your excellent piece on RONI and US landfalls? Do you have numbers for this season and where that stacks up with recent years? Working on my peak season forecast today and would like to include that in my final section.

Still some strong winds aloft, but the need to rebuild convection and the expanding wind field has taken a toll on maximum surface winds

Someone probably gets a few inches of rain, I just think it's to our north or south

Maybe this quasi-PRE can produce and someone floods tomorrow.

Watches extended a little further north.

Yeah it’s not looking good. I have my peak season forecast due tomorrow and I’m still not sure which direction I’ll go in.

Posting for others to see. I know it’s there and that every system is different, but Erin was able to get past SAL and develop. Even this wave has convective activity. But the 12z GEFS signal declined near the Antilles too. Maybe it doesn’t develop, or maybe it’s a late developer. I lean toward the latter at this point, with the SW Atlantic being more favorable perhaps.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Duck to Cape Charles Light Virginia.

I could see a TS watch for a place like Nantucket tomorrow given the wind field. Definitely. Shear and dry air taking a toll, though models try to restrengthen it some as it moves northward and maybe finds more favorable upper level winds. Everyone has struggled with Erin’s intensity forecast to an extent—upwards and downwards. Goes to show we still have a lot to learn.

Erin has taken a real beating between the shear and drier air. Although the Euro tries to return Erin to some semblance of former glory, the HAFS bring down the pressure respectively, but the wind field expands without much in the way of significant intensification, to @NorthHillsWx's point.

Not quite sure what to make of the operational models backing off development when the ensembles still have a pretty robust signal for TC genesis. Erin's evolution will have a big impact on what happens with this one.

Yes. The ops are just fantasy but the ensembles show a pattern that could be conducive. Everything is always low probability for here so there’s no need for folks to get riled up.

Yup…now that would be funny

Happy hour on 18z GFS lol

I’m not so sure the Euro has that right but we’ll see. It’s not the prettiest trough/ridge combo but it’s better than what we have today lol. I can definitely see that wave struggling to consolidate until it gets past 60W.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.

Posted in the tropical subforum, but HAFS and Euro really moved west at 12z. Whether that's actually true we'll see, but it would likely bring TS gusts to the coast.

Odds up at 2pm Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located near the Southeast Bahamas. Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing limited disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Count me in this group. Erin did mount a bit of a comeback, but the structural changes and shear has taken a toll. Still a dangerous storm to be sure, but just entering a new phase of its life cycle as it turns north and expands dramatically. Here's the last 10 hours on IR. Perhaps of note (or not), both the 12z HAFS and Euro pull this significantly closer to the Outer Banks. There have been some modeling head fakes, hence my skepticism, but as we know Erin has been pulling more west at times. Flooding will be the major issue there, but it looks like a TS watch may be justified later today. Even though it won't be a direct hit, I hope Outer Banks folks are taking this seriously.

From the NHC. I wonder if there are more watches up the coast eventually if the nudges west continue. 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today.

Also from the NHC 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today.

I'm skeptical that this wave gets pushed into the Gulf given the signal for another big trough on the ensembles, but critically, this trough is more over the US rather than in Canada, which opens the door for some type of east coast threat. We obviously have a long way to go with this one, but it's worth some attention.

Erin is not going to need to hug the coast in order to bring some impacts. This is going to be a huge wind field, and if Erin is truly poised to continue tracking further west as it has throughout its time being forecasted, strong winds along the coast shouldn't be ruled out. The NHC itself has made it a point in recent discussions. We should also start keeping an eye on what the ensembles do with the follow up wave.