WxWatcher007

Six hour time difference. It’s just after noon currently in Hawaii.

I haven’t gone sub 10” and I’ve had some truly awful winters in a sub-optimal snow spot in SNE. Given the boom/bust cycle we seem to have been in since the 2010s I think a record low is on the table, but probably not that low. As hard as it is to go wire to wire deep winter, I think it’s even harder to go wire to wire zero winter, especially at ORH.

Doesn't look like much of a core on that first recon pass today. We'll see what they find on the north side though. The IR looks relatively disheveled. New cone likely brings an official landfall.

Models really backed off this one too.

Sacrificial wave it seems.

Dumb question, but radial velocity?

That's a good and interesting point. Given how few examples we have of this kind of scenario in this part of the Pacific, I would probably look at it with more of a grain of salt than say the MDR activity we currently have over in the Atlantic. HAFS-A and B would be my preferred intensity guidance here, especially after a cycle or two of recon ingested data. As for track, I'd still lean south for a center pass, avoiding landfall but still bringing wind, rain, and surf impacts.

What's the record minimum?

Hmm…down to 60% odds

95/74 is not our climo on August 13th Would’ve been a good chase trip but the logistics are a mess and I’m thinking the center passes south of the big island as a strong TS, not hurricane. I try to stay away from Island Roulette.

“On 11 September 1992 Hurricane Iniki scored a direct hit on the island of Kaua‘i. Over a period of only 3 hours, the category 4 hurricane (on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale; Simpson 1974) caused damage equivalent to the total general fund budget of the state of Hawaii at that time and wiped out the historical profits of the Hawaii homeowners insurance industry.” That is a staggering amount of damage. 1871 looks really bad too based on the descriptions.

Now that’s a storm.

Where can I go to make one of these? lol

Beautiful summer day out there

Pretty good chance we get TC genesis here. Gradual organization continuing.

Now that the follow up wave in the Tropical Atlantic has been designated as Invest 94L and has a decent chance of development, I'm breaking out discussion into a new thread. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Just leaving this here…congrats Hawaii.

Not in my backyard

MDR is showing signs of life for a brief moment at least. Might get two TCs out of it. Would need to watch if they get shunted toward the U.S.

There’s nothing like totality, but this never gets old.

I ended up creating threads for Cristobal and 92L. Probably going to need one for a future 93L at some point given the models shifting attention to that wave. Not a surprise as often the lead waves end up being sacrificial for the trailing ones in marginal to hostile environments.

Models are pretty lukewarm for this invest, but AI ensembles, especially the Euro AI, track it into the Caribbean. Shear is an issue across the basin, where it's been historically high in the last month.

Again, asleep at the wheel. Here's a thread for Invest 92L, which seems poised to become a TD soon in the central Atlantic. Discuss here. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

I've been asleep at the wheel. We have a short lived TS in the central Atlantic. Creating a thread for posterity lol. Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032026 300 PM GMT Wed Aug 12 2026 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure we have been monitoring well east-northeast of Bermuda over the past several days has become better defined today. A recent ASCAT pass revealed an area of 35-40 kt winds southeast of the slightly elongated and exposed center, within the region of convection. While the convective organization has degraded since earlier this morning, scatterometer data indicate that the system has achieved tropical storm status, and it likely reached that threshold earlier this morning. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Cristobal, with the initial intensity set to 40 kt. Cristobal is moving quickly eastward around 22 kt over marginally favorable sea surface temperatures near 25 C. The storm is currently positioned between a subtropical high to the south, and a ridge extending over the north-central Atlantic to the northeast. A turn toward the northeast, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected later today and tonight as Cristobal moves along the southwestern periphery of the northern Atlantic ridge. Slow weakening is forecast during this period as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters and encounters increasingly dry mid-level air and stronger northerly wind shear. Cristobal is expected to be short-lived and dissipate on Thursday. The official NHC track and intensity forecasts lie near the middle of the consensus guidance and are closest to the HCCA solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 36.7N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 37.4N 40.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 38.5N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi