WxWatcher007

End of July Tropical Update It's time to turn the page to August, and that means a deep dive into where we are and where we may be going as we approach the start of the climatological peak of the the 2022 Atlantic season. It has been nearly a month since the last named storm in the Atlantic (Colin) and it is immediately apparent why. While the EPAC is HOT, the Atlantic is about as dead as you can get. It has been a banner month in the EPAC, where virtually everything that tried to develop in the basin has developed. The EPAC has seen 5 named storms in the month of July, and 4 have become hurricanes with 2 of those majors. That puts the basin about a month ahead of both hurricane and major climo overall. The background environment has allowed for rising motion that strongly favored convection in the Pacific. Think MJO. It has been steadfast in supporting EPAC activity. The rule of thumb is when one basin is hot, the other is quiet in our part of the world, and that has certainly been the case in the Atlantic where sinking motion, lack of stalled fronts off the SE and Gulf, and monsoon trough along the African coast allowing for SAL in the MDR have suppressed not just activity, but convection itself--the seeds of a TC. It's hard to state just how bad this pattern is for the Atlantic currently. Even though this tends to be the downward peak of dry air in the Atlantic, it is extraordinarily dry. You can see it in the satellite image above, but you really see it with the SAL Analysis. It's nearly impossible to get anything anywhere outside of the Gulf with this environment. The MDR, Caribbean, and even western Atlantic/SE coast are dry. To be clear, it's more complicated than just dry air. Combined with other factors like stability in the region, it's a toxic combo for any wave trying to form. To make matters worse, there is a nasty ribbon of shear that would rip anything apart in the Caribbean (normal this time of year) and anything that tried to develop and move westward in the eastern MDR. It's easy to look at these plots and feel the urge to cancel the rest of the season. How could the Atlantic recover with that kind of dry air and stability in the MDR? How could we see long track hurricanes with shear this high? I strongly urge caution in cutting back forecasts for an above average season. 1. Generally Speaking, a Quiet Atlantic This Time of Year is Climo There's no way to sugarcoat it: the current Atlantic pattern is truly awful for TC genesis. That said, this time of year the pattern usually leaves a lot to be desired. In recent years, very active years by the way, we saw fairly dramatic pauses in Atlantic activity during this time. Although the season starts on June 1, by the time we get to August 1, we still have approximately 90% of tropical activity that is yet to occur. July tropical activity is almost exclusively confined to the homebrew regions of the SE coast, Gulf, and Western Caribbean for a reason--the broader basin is not ready for major activity via African waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean portions of the MDR. That means it's folly to make a prediction on what August and September will look like with regard to ACE and absolute TC numbers based on July activity. Image courtesy of Michael Lowry. 2. Signs are That the Basin Will Gradually Become More Favorable Now, this one is easy. We're headed toward the peak of the season, which broadly runs from August 20-October 20. Usually the switch flips and we go from quiet to very active. The PAC will not continue on this heater, and while we had a false start signal from the models about two weeks ago that highlighted the end of July/early August as the period the switch would flip, it's important to look at the puzzle pieces they try to throw out. First, it's looking like rising motion will become more favorable by mid-month in the Atlantic and favor more vigorous waves off Africa, right in time for the start of CV season in the Eastern Atlantic (image courtesy of Andy Hazelton). This is critical, because we will need moisture to get injected into the basin. second, it looks like shear will begin to decline. This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin. 3. Despite Mixed Environmental Factors, ENSO and SST/OHC Still Rule the Day Finally, ENSO still matters. We are going to see a La Nina/-ENSO state during the peak of the season. This is clear and unambiguous. Normally, -ENSO produces a broadly favorable environment. I will note that @GaWxhas done some excellent work that challenges the premise that a third-year Nina must necessarily be active, but I do think that an active WAM, reduced shear typical of a Nina, and importantly, near normal MDR/cool subtropics and warm western Atlantic will allow for an above average (but not hyperactive) season. Overall I started the season with a 21 named storm/10 hurricane/5 major hurricane forecast, and I don't see much reason to change that right now. I do think we get some activity before the climb toward peak begins on August 20. Overall, I think stability in the MDR will take the longest to overcome, but the other factors I listed above should be able to overcome that. As I've said the last few years as well, I think a relative lack of activity in the Eastern Atlantic can be countered by increased activity in the western Atlantic, where SSTs and OHC are higher than usual. I should note that my usual TCHP charts are inaccessible, but based on what I saw earlier in the month, the depth of ocean warmth is on par with our other recent active seasons, especially in the western Atlantic.

Just looking at ACE, originally I would have been inclined to say that the -ENSO alone puts us in a place where average ACE is a floor, but that'd be lazy analysis. In fact, @GaWxrecently posted some great stats that show there tends to be a dramatic drop off in activity in a third-year Nina, though the sample size is on the smaller side. That gives a little pause, but I didn't expect hyperactive to begin with. That said, while I think it's tempting to look at a slightly cooler than normal MDR and the incredibly quiet Atlantic as a harbinger of things to come, I don't think it's going to get in the way of a very active peak that should bring us to at least average. I know you know this, but we still have approximately 90% of climo to go with regard to Atlantic activity, and there have been numerous examples this century of long quiet periods and less than favorable eastern MDR conditions that fail to get in the way of a season with a favorable background state becoming above active. I still think the combination of a Nina, lower than normal shear driven by the Nina, and importantly, warmer than normal temperatures and TCHP/OHC throughout the western Atlantic suggest a season that gets the Atlantic above 123 ACE. Not worried about the SAL--that'll diminish near the peak. I do think stability in the eastern MDR could be a fly in the ointment, but I'd want to see what that looks like in mid-August.

The seller left behind brand new rakes, shovels, and hedge clippers. I guess they thought they’d use em and never did.

Me too

Yeah—it’s entangled with at least two trees. I’ll be busy keeping it in check. I just looked that up. I don’t think it is? And yeah, there are levels to the overgrowth thing. At least nothing is growing on the house lol. The neighbors said they only mowed three times in the last year. Today I discovered while pulling weeds in the front that some of the driveway was just covered by weed/grass. Stuff literally grew on top of the asphalt and made it look like it was a grassy barrier with the neighbor. I’m new to all of this stuff so I find all of it interesting. I’m the first in my family to own a home. The yard is a blank slate.

Yeah—very quiet. Thought we’d be heating up around now but that’s obviously wrong.

Not quite yet. Closed on a house two weeks ago here in town and am trying to get some work done before moving everything in. Fortunately, nothing major.

Prior owners left a mess so I have to get things under control. Will be nice to not have to mow a lot though.

GREAT day to get some yard work done.

This is the first time I’ve ever really had a yard, and while it’s a lot of work I love it. I probably won’t be go crazy with it just because I can’t justify spending a lot of money on this to the wife, but I’ll make improvements where I can. The prior owners left a ton of overgrowth and weeds in the front and back. I’m two weeks in and it already looks much better after a mow. The overgrowth on the sides are so bad.

That’s nuts.

Ol’ Euro ain’t what it used to be.

I don’t like the naming, but categories for heat waves would be helpful. They’re not all equally impactful.

So glad I posted here. It helped me remember. Just made a small donation @Typhoon Tip. Thank you for sharing.

Same channel, different day imby. Was great though as I was able to get my first mow in at the new place. Despite the drought grass does very well out back where the water drains. Probably a little too well lol.

Don’t get me wrong, love me some winter when it’s hitting, it’s just so tedious to me now. I wish I had the time. I’m busier than ever and the work keeps piling up. All good things though so I can’t complain.

It has been extraordinarily boring but like Ray said, the baseline for summer is boring so it is what it is. It’s allowed me to do other things. Like sleep. Winter has been feeling like a scene out of Waiting for Godot in recent years imby so I haven’t been particularly fond of the results there. At least October has been consistent in bringing big dog coastals in recent years. Tropical is my thing and I chase so it’s irrelevant what happens up here to me, but if I had to rank months and seasons I’d probably start with September and fall tbh. I know that’s blasphemous here lol. 1. Fall 2. Summer 3. Winter 4. Spring

This is really interesting. Do you have a sense of what the SST distributions were for some of these years?

First evening really out relaxing in the backyard. Beautiful, beautiful evening.

Wow, that’s pretty bold. I still think despite the quiet period and meh MDR anomalies that tropical season in the Atlantic will be above average.

I believe the warm signal, but I’m in show me mode for anything interesting. Boring begets boring.

No reason yet to believe this’ll be a low ACE season in the Atlantic.

With regard to severe and rainfall, yesterday was a bust IMO. In CT to be specific. You look at those parameters in place, the fact that we cleared out, and actually had some activity develop in a good environment in the evening and you’d figure that at the very least, there would be some widespread strong storms even and more widespread rainfall. Scattered severe warned stuff at best. To get nothing close to a warnable storm is a big bust to me. To see a wide swath of the state get very little rainfall is also a bust to me. I never expected widespread severe, but we never even came close to even an isolated severe storm. It is what it is, but that’s bad in my book.