WxWatcher007

While I'm skeptical of anything off the SE coast in the near future, the GDM has a relatively strong signal for something to pop in the subtropics. It does look like parts of the basin will become slightly more conducive in the coming weeks, as more favorable rising motion moves into the basin and shear potentially falls in a narrow region between the Gulf and subtropics.

And September snow for the NNE weenies

What a joke of a model. GFS with weenies for all.

Are there temp and snowfall maps for 82-83/97-98? Well, I know the temp maps are out there.

Couldn’t agree more. We will have our chances.

Very interesting looking at the images from the respective years. This year’s Atlantic has really warmed up compared to earlier in the season though we’re seeing most of the warmth in the subtropics.

No disagreement there. I’m thinking that as we see more penetrating cold fronts, offshore coastal lows, and CAG season opening up late September into October, things pick up. Maybe we get something else in the MDR, but it seems unlikely to me. I still have 3 H and 1 MH for my peak season forecast.

Going to be extremely close for a eye pass, but an eyewall scrape will be rough.

Should be impactful but they still dodged a bullet

Low of 49°. Coldest since June. Only 47° up at WXW2, but that’s enough for SLK to reach 37°.

All about location. Been a beautiful weekend here in EH. Only a quick .04” here yesterday. 63/57 currently 54/49 at WXW2

I still think there will be life in the Atlantic eventually. But it’s going to be a while and the windows will be narrow—geographically and time wise.

@40/70 Benchmark do you think the current volcanic eruption will impact things at all?

It's really interesting to see the strides made by AI guidance in recent years. We'll see if that continues into this winter. As I remember it, AI ensembles were great least year when legacy guidance was too quick to kick our coastal events out to sea.

And 500mb

My God, the GFS.

The AMO is SO important. People really do forget how the Atlantic can vary for decades at a time! Doesn’t mean we can’t get a big event during a “lull” but of all the areas where you really need to care about the longer historical record, tropical is it. I’ll also just note, this is an extremely impressive season so far—it just happens to be on the other side of the activity spectrum. To have this little ACE, this deep into the general climatological peak in the Atlantic, it’s really something to behold.

What a year in Hawaii

I'm going to take the over on that. Way over.

That's where my head is at too. I was once ready to totally write off winter, but I think AN precip while we struggle with the battle zone for temps in southern and maybe central NE is going to be the theme of the season. And that can work out very well, but I'm guessing we need less of that fast flow crap and more active STJ. Problem with the stalled front is that way more often than not they just carry whatever develops OTS. Speaking my language. Hybrid would work just fine.

For CT at least, July 4th was a pretty big widespread severe event day. Otherwise, pretty much crickets. It's not that it's quiet, it's that north south and west of us have had big years. Hell, even the fish have seen better storms than some of us. Going to need a lot more than warm SSTs for something off the coast. Tropical waves can't get to the western Atlantic because shear is absolutely obliterating them. Dolly formed, ran into a buzzsaw, and even when it found a favorable environment off the SE coast it couldn't do anything because there was nothing left. Going to need either a well-timed wave to make it through the gauntlet into the Bahamas late September or a CAG system yanked north in October. Anything popping off a stalled front is just going to pass well OTS. 20-30 years of a quiet(er) Atlantic...