Yeah I think that’s right. I know I kid occasionally about the San Diego stuff but here in SNE we can do severe, tropical, cold, heat/humidity, and snow. Most of the time it may be quiet, but when we hit we hit.
Man I’m excited. Heading up next week and there’s snow showers in the forecast each day.
I’ve been lurking in the main ENSO thread in the forum and it seems like the models have a good pattern for the east in December that’s pretty consistent with a weak Nina. I can’t buy any pattern at this range but I love our fall step down this year and appreciate not looking at a close the shades Pacific pattern setting up.
Early on in met winter though I feel like we need to see that we can get on the board. It’s a restless life getting to Dec 20 with absolutely no shot at snow on the models.
I’m still pretty bullish on first flakes in much of SNE in the coming two weeks. I really do like seeing this first blast of deep cold rolling down into the eastern U.S. next week.
This. Our non-elevation snow rates/accumulation are second to the LES belts, and I wouldn’t trade that for a 5-10” Midwest blizzard with 70mph winds, even though I love wind.
But high end to me is the HECS territory. We had a great stretch last decade, but region wide historic has happened less than a handful of times?
Yeah and again…don’t want to make too much of it right now, but even that coastal in October was a pretty meh dual low mess. I get why people are cautiously optimistic about winter but the raging PAC jet interfering in the development of proper coastal and placement of important features is something to watch, I think.
I’m being a little colorful, because we can do various types of high end wx, but the return time and regional scale vary.
I still think this’ll be a fine event as 45-55mph inland is still quite solid, but high end is high end for a reason and we don’t really do high end in anything in SNE to begin with. San Diego east.
We out. We’ll be windy, but nothing high end here. Also don’t want to read too much into it…but virtually every storm during this active period has been a cutter or coastal hugger…