WxWatcher007

It looks like they follow the op with substantial spread still in landfall point.

Still feeling our way around solutions. The 06z Euro brings future Imelda onshore with a similar progression to its other prior runs—much faster than what the 00z had.

Very interesting stuff. Long way to go…

Yikes. That’s a bit of a change. Let’s see what the ensembles say.

To overperform it has to have an inner core built pretty quickly this weekend. That’s worth watching for sure. The intensification as it’s landfalling is an interesting signal since the environment is not ideal by then.

It’s a very interesting setup. Still very unclear what’ll happen.

Watch the long range though. Remnants get picked up by a trough eventually.

Showed up again at 18z and especially at 00z. Again, fantasy range and speculative but maybe worth watching as the ridge breaks down and a trough scoops up whatever remnants there are. Humberto is and was always gone.

What a ridge on the GFS

Looks like a nascent eye was trying to develop as of a few hours ago.

Speculative at this point but I think anything from a TS to C3 are possible. I agree with the odds of a 4 being very low. I've said this elsewhere but we have to remember that major hurricane strikes along the east coast are actually pretty rare. Since 1990 there have only been three. Andrew '92, Fran '96, and Jeanne '04. Here, there's a window where this will likely intensify, but near the coast future Imelda may have to deal with the effects of southerly shear and dry air being imparted into the circulation. Along with cooler temperatures near the coast. That said, the Euro has intensification near landfall, probably because there should be a strong outflow channel to the north. Right now there is a robust mid-level circulation apparent on satellite. We really need to see how that translates as it reaches the high SST/OHC environment near the Bahamas tomorrow. Given its current appearance and how Humberto was able to more quickly develop and intensify in its environment, I do think it's on the board that this has an impressive appearance tomorrow if shear relents some.

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 25 2025 Humberto continues to gain strength while moving slowly over the central Atlantic. The system is exhibiting a growing CDO feature with cloud tops to near -70 deg C, along with some convective bands over the eastern portion of the circulation, where most of the lightning flashes are currently occurring. The advisory intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB and a blend of objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS. The storm's forward speed is quite slow with a motion estimate of only 320/3 kt. Steering currents are not strong at this time since the subtropical ridge to the north of Humberto is quite weak. Global model forecasts show the ridge strengthening with time and in a few days the cyclone should move somewhat faster toward the northwest and turn northward in the vicinity of 70 W longitude. By the end of the forecast period, after Humberto passes north of the ridge, the system should begin accelerating northeastward. Cirrus motions indicate that the vertical wind shear over Humberto has lessened, and the SHIPS model output does not show the shear increasing much through 72 hours. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be very warm along the projected path of the cyclone, and the system should remain embedded in a moist air mass. The official forecast continues to call for significant strengthening during the next few days. This is consistent with the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, forecast which also shows Humberto intensifying into a major hurricane this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 22.2N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 22.7N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 23.4N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 24.3N 63.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 25.4N 65.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 32.6N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Gale-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 71 mph (114 km/h) with a gust to 86 mph (138 km/h) was recently reported by a station on Terceira Island in the central Azores at an elevation of 884 feet (269 m). Closer to sea level, a wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was measured at Ponta Furada on Faial Islan

That was all time horrific. Makes me sick even thinking about it.

Pig ridge stretching from International Falls to Iceland?

I think it’s still worth plenty of caution to look too much into intensity guidance given the lack of a center. We do know there will be a favorable environment window early, followed by likely hostile conditions. But how much that impacts Imelda will depend on how structurally sound any inner core is.

Maybe. This is a pretty anomalous ridge for this time of year I think.

I'm still a bit skeptical of such a strong ridge, but if that is the case we will need to watch if future Imelda is able to get back offshore. If so, the guidance seems to believe some sort of regeneration is possible, and with that ridge rolling east that would probably lead to something running up the coast either inland or just offshore. Fantasy range but something to monitor.

That is an impressive ridge on the GFS that stops future Imelda’s northward progress right in its tracks.

Hammering home the point that—for anyone lurking—even with the trend from the Euro and GFS, there is still a **high** amount of uncertainty on eventual track and intensity. Nothing is locked in yet.

First time all season this thread has been hot lol

Not sure if it’d happen today as the 2pm TWO didn’t mention it, but maybe at 11pm and almost certainly tomorrow given it’s proximity to the islands.

This could really be a prolific rainmaker if it gets trapped under the ridge.

Only in New England.

I think regardless of track there’s going to be a flood risk maybe up to the Mid-Atlantic given the upper level setup. Hopefully not to this extent though.