WxWatcher007

Not to get on a gatekeeper high horse lol but you can definitely justify a thread and analyze as an experienced poster here. Barry (god love ‘em) starting a thread on anything that swirls with an op that is devoid of original information for readers isn’t helpful imo.

This makes me long for the days of dews talk.

As you know, it used to be the case that we didn’t start threads unless there was an invest or area of interest near a coastline…

It being unable to sustain meaningful convection last night definitely hurt chances imo but I still think it has a chance once it turns NE.

Yeah, but I’m not necessarily tracking for US impacts anymore—more for how TC genesis occurs or not in this case.

The convection was much more limited earlier and also disorganized. I would’ve kept at 40%, but there’s a ribbon of higher shear to the north too that could disrupt things.

The NHC brought this down to 30% but I wouldn't write it off. Guidance gets it going later in the period and right now there's a good amount of low level vorticity in a low wind shear environment. It has some, albeit disorganized, convection. Certainly more than yesterday. I think it's still worth a casual eye. Especially if it can maintain some convection overnight.

Despite the NHC taking the odds of development of the low off the SE coast back down to 30%, there has been some more convection near the center and it is for now at least in a lower shear environment. Homebrew always piques my interest. Meanwhile Dexter continues churning in the open Atlantic and the wave that was tied into the monsoon trough out in the Atlantic is now Invest 96L with some good convection firing--though dry air is evident on satellite just to its north. It looks like our SE coast low helps create a weakness in the Atlantic ridge that keeps that one out to sea. At least for now...

Overperformer

Still looking good for OTS. Goes to show how easily a steering pattern look can flip on a dime.

Yeah for fantasy range it’s slightly interesting. Less the storm than the overall steering pattern, which has looked pretty consistent (thus far) for an EC threat if there’s a wave that can ride into the SW Atlantic.

Another earthquake in northern NJ. 2.7 this time.

Now all that said, you have to get the activity in the first place. The tropical Atlantic, while probably becoming more favorable in the coming days with the MJO change, still isn't a lock for high end activity. There's still work to do with instability. and this is the time of year where SAL still lurks But compared to prior years, this actually doesn't look bad

That's exactly it. If you had a more displaced jet you 1) open the door to more shear being imparted on a TC, which would lower potential and 2) more on point with this subject, you make it much harder for an "easy" recurve into the open Atlantic because the jet being displaced leads to the subtropical high being displaced--"blocking" a storm from easily recurving OTS depending on in-situ conditions (like is at TC following another into a weakness in Atlantic ridging). So think of it this way--there are always going to be weaker troughs/fronts that can serve as a kicker, but with a jet that is displaced so far to the north you get ridging that can steer waves further west into the Caribbean (where a landfall is all but guaranteed) or the southwest Atlantic, where a ridge could keep a wave/TC plowing west or a weaker trough/front could turn something north/northwest along the East Coast. This is part of the reason why this seems like more of an EC season, at least through the end of the month. The seasonal steering pattern has been highly favorable for US strikes, and the background environment with ENSO implies that this kind of predominant ridge/trough pattern could last into the peak of the season. (image below from Webb) I chose these time stamps for 10 days out, but this is an enormous signal for carrying anything that develops in the Atlantic west, provided it doesn't develop in the central Atlantic subtropics. That's why you see such a robust signal from the GFS/Euro operational guidance. There's a massive ridge and no currently modeled weaknesses to turn something OTS. If things got active in the Atlantic in the last 2/3 of August someone will be in trouble.

Not terribly surprising given the SST and instability environment in the SW Atlantic

Our annual up the bay run!

I’d rather see that on guidance ten days out or whatever than some big trough signal over my head—that all of the guidance tries to pull something into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic is really all I need to see at this stage. Though it’s obviously clown range early. You’re absolutely right. That ended up becoming a named storm eventually but that easily did hurricane damage.

We haven’t had a hurricane strike but we’ve been pretty active. Irene, Sandy, Fay, Isaias, Henri…not to mention all of the Atlantic Canada strikes including their storm of record (Fiona). It just hasn’t been high end for us, which I do think is unusual given the number of hits.

18z wasn’t really your friend but it did keep most of the bad wx to the east.

For up our way they matter so I don’t disagree there—but I don’t think we’re getting good tropical unless there’s a good pool of higher end deep fuel as a hurricane is rounding the SE coast and slingshotting north. Of course that starts with SST. We’ve had some good years with warmth up and down the EC and I think this is one of the best in the recent active period (2017-) with SSTa and OHC. Better than we saw in 2020 with Isaias and the other recent big heat years in the basin. Combine that with high instability off the coast and a generally favorable environment so far off the EC and anything legitimate in the SW Atlantic and subtropics should cook.

Nothing more than poor man’s eye candy. At least the tropics are warming up. I do think we’re ripe if we keep this general summer pattern with repeated bouts of Atlantic ridging, but that becomes harder obviously as the seasonal change begins aloft in September. Everyone posts SSTs, but OHC is where it’s at. You need to keep high end tropical going as high end tropical for as long as you can along the coast. We’re not getting squat if a system is passing 150nm off Hatteras. It’s gotta tuck imo.

Hope for a push west into Georgia

12z EPS was quite aggressive today. The sooner we get a low to form the higher the odds of genesis becomes. Note where the highest probabilities are. Looking at the GEFS/GFS however there’s still a lot of uncertainty with this one.

A little surprised that the EPS was so bullish on the disturbance at 12z. Very high odds of a TD with modest odds of a TS. Note where the highest probabilities are.

12z Euro was a bit more robust at 850mb. Gets a good bit of rain into NC and points north. I think that much like Dexter, models could be playing catch up with this if there is a pocket of lighter shear available to the eventual low.