WxWatcher007

Between 1500-1600ft. We’ll see what that means for winter lol

NHC has this near the Azores as a hurricane Friday.

That’s expected. Note that little upper level low to the west. It’s pretty robust, showing just how busy things are. Not a lot of spacing. Shear will be an issue for a few days I think but the guidance is showing a stronger environment for development near the Bahamas eventually. Still, a lot to sort out there as @NorthHillsWx noted some potential roadblocks earlier.

Thanks. Still getting used to not watching radar at 100ft ASL. Won’t be here full time but I have to admit—I love it up here. It’s just out in the middle of nowhere.

Been pouring here in SLK all morning. Radar is weird with all the elevation changes.

While there’s still a lot to sort out, if 94L doesn’t merge with 93L as the GFS tries to predict, it very well may be an east coast threat. This is worth a close watch.

The Euro trend has been toward a more robust system, with 06z showing a strong storm. What’s far more important however for a D6 forecast is the Euro continues to show a cutoff low over the southeast with a ridge building over the top of the eastern U.S., effectively guaranteeing a bona fide east coast threat. Here, it looks like the trough to the east (top right of image) is not enough to kick this out to sea. AI models in general support this upper level configuration too. Now, before coastal folks get too concerned, there’s still a LOT to sort out because while the cutoff looks legit, we don’t know where it’ll be, the location of the ridge, and how much, if any, an escape window opens. There’s also the big question of how the spacing of the three systems—Gabrielle, 93L, and 94L, impact track and intensity of 94L. Now that this is an invest, the additional resources will help us nail this down. This one is worth more than a casual eye.

Just a tremendous satellite presentation tonight. Awfully impressive considering that Gab had a foot in the grave a few days ago.

Watch out Azores Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025 Gabrielle remains a formidable Category-4 hurricane with a well-defined 15 n-mi diameter eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops of near -70 deg C. The current intensity estimate is held at 120 kt, which is slightly higher than the latest subjective Dvorak estimates of 115 kt from both TAFB and SAB. This is also a blend of objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane has turned toward the northeast and is now moving at around 040/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains about the same as in the previous advisory. Gabrielle should move around the northwestern side of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next day or so and then accelerate east-northeastward between the ridge and the mid-latitude westerlies through about 72 hours. A slight turn to the northeast ahead of a higher-latitude trough is expected in 3-4 days. This official track forecast is similar to the previous one. The latest Google DeepMind forecast is a little farther north of the model consensus. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest extratropical transition will occur on Friday while the system is in the vicinity of the Azores. No significant change in intensity is anticipated into early Tuesday while Gabrielle remains in a conducive atmospheric and oceanic environment By late tomorrow and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air and cooler waters should cause weakening. However, an approaching upper-level trough could provide enhanced divergence aloft which could help Gabrielle maintain some of its intensity during the next few days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind, rainfall, and wave impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 32.4N 61.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 35.5N 50.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 35.9N 44.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 37.0N 37.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 38.8N 31.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 43.0N 22.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 28/0000Z 44.0N 16.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

East of the Leeward Islands: A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday and near Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025 Gabrielle has continued to become better organized this afternoon, with very cold cloud tops in the eyewall and a warm eye. Data from both NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirm satellite estimates that Gabrielle is a category 4 hurricane, with peak 700-mb winds of 129 kt in the eastern quadrant a few hours ago. Additionally, tail-Doppler radar data showed maximum 0.5 km winds of 135-140 kt on the last pass, and the double eyewall structure has consolidated into a single eyewall again. These data supported an intensity of at least 115 kt at 18Z, and with the slight improvement on satellite since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 120 kt. The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 10 kt. There are no important changes to report to the track forecast, with the subtropical ridge providing a seemingly reliable steering for the next several days. Gabrielle is forecast to turn northeastward overnight and then move at a more rapid pace to the east-northeast during the next few days due to stronger mid-latitude flow. The new forecast remains on the faster side of the guidance, closer to the Google DeepMind and GFS model. Extratropical transition is expected late on Friday while the system is in the vicinity of the Azores. Little significant intensity change with Gabrielle is expected as the cyclone begins to move into a less conducive environment, though the overnight diurnal convective max should help the hurricane maintain its strength in the short term. A combination of cooler waters and increasing shear should cause Gabrielle to start to weaken by late tomorrow. While SSTs drop off notably by midweek, an upper-level trough is likely to provide extra divergence aloft, keeping the hurricane stronger than other environmental conditions might suggest. The new NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one, showing a gradual weakening during the long-range forecast and near the model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind, rainfall, and wave impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 31.7N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 32.8N 60.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 35.7N 47.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 36.3N 40.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 37.7N 34.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 42.8N 22.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1800Z 44.5N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

Euro would get some remnant rain into the region

Good candidate for our next major…

Might be a weak TS verbatim but as you know it’s more important to see the steering patterns that trough is really what make this a land threat as a ridge builds over the top and it’s not crazy far out—only about a week away. Short fuse system.

It’s going to remain all over the place for a bit. A lot of uncertainty with this one with the upper level pattern the opposite of this at 00z on the Euro. But for up here we want to see that trough migrate from the SE to the GL region in future runs with far less troughing to our north lol.

This one could very well end up further west than Gabrielle. Would definitely watch in Bermuda. I expect the odds to go up at 2pm. It still has disorganized convection but it looks like it’s trying to consolidate.

Yeah as long as you have that flow over New England this one won’t get here. Could still do something further south though.

Unlike Erin, it looks like the lead wave could get west enough where even if there’s a trough around there could be a land threat. Steering pattern still looks a bit weird though.

I’m modestly intrigued. I said in my forecast that if there were an EC threat this year it’d be a shorter fuse wave that develops in the western Atlantic. That lead wave fits the bill. But it’s all just speculation at this point.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (2) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 3 (1) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH) Thank you Gabby! More likely on the way.

Really took off. GREAT for my forecast lol.

The tropics are active now with three systems being monitored. This is the thread for the current orange nearing the Leeward Islands. The forecast for this wave is complicated, with more implications for land than our central Atlantic cherry. The signal for development is not as strong as the Atlantic cherry, but this morning there is a modest amount of convection. The key to this wave and its possible risk to land is that it is likely to stay weak as it pushes across the northern Leeward Islands, bringing rain and gusty winds, but it finds a potentially more favorable environment for development in the southwest Atlantic. While the GFS has led the way in signaling development, in its latest run it consolidates both waves in five days off near the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the Euro, which was more bearish originally, keeps both waves separate. It is critical to see how the upper level pattern over the east coast develops, and whether the strength and orientation is enough to kick both waves out to sea or create an east coast threat. This one is definitely worth watching.

Yeah it’s time to break out the discussion with the trends continuing. Threads on both coming now.

The tropics are active now with three systems being monitored. This is the thread for the current central Atlantic cherry. There has been a strong cross guidance signal for days that a central Atlantic wave will develop. The models have actually been quite robust with this wave once it develops, in similar fashion to the rapidly intensifying Gabrielle. The AI ensembles, which have done a particularly good job sniffing the environment out, are particularly strong. Now, while the majority of guidance turns this out to sea without threatening any land masses, the amplitude and timing of a trough in the coming week will determine the eventual evolution, along with where this develops. I expect this to develop first if both waves develop.