WxWatcher007

Pretty close to TS status if not already there.

Good to see recon out there for an extended period. The center is kind of meandering out there. You have to wonder if we see additional center reformations near the deeper convection with that northeasterly shear proving to be so strong.

The GFS, which has been playing catch up, has TD2 intensify a bit more than it did last run as it runs NW and then slides WSW below the LA coastline. AI GFS still weak.

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the depression is becoming better organized, with the low-level circulation getting better defined and increased convective banding near the center. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening. The maximum 925-mb flight-level winds reported by the aircraft so far is 34 kt, and the central pressure is near 1007 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center of the depression seems to have reformed a little to the south during the past several hours. However, the overall motion is 310/3 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. Over time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the dominant steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the northeastern United States. This should result in the depression turning to the west-northwest and eventually west at a continued slow forward speed. The new forecast track brings the center near southeastern Louisiana in about 60 h and then reaches southeastern Texas by 120 h. The new forecast track is a little south of the previous track based partly on the current position and the possibility that the forecast northeasterly shear may help steer the center a little more southward. The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and these conditions should continue for another 24-30 h. It is likely that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a tropical storm. After about 30 h, the northeasterly shear is forecast to increase, and the global models suggest it will get strong enough to destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. This should halt intensification and then cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 to 48 h, and this is in the upper portion of the intensity guidance envelope. The forecast also calls for the system to survive through 120 h. However, it could dissipate between 72-120 h, especially if it tracks north of the current forecast and has more land interaction. It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the center. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana beginning late tonight into Tuesday. 2. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm surge is possible. 3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for portions of that area later today or Tuesday. 4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 28.5N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Oh yeah, we don't disagree there. Would need to see the center stay south and wrap convection to put anything other than a minor/modest ceiling on the table.

Shear is definitely evident in IR satellite, but unlike yesterday we are seeing more persistent convection near the center with pressure falling and flight level winds going up as a result. The shear has picked up substantially, which will make it very hard for the kind of vortex alignment necessary for a faster pace of intensification. And dry air is still an issue, though the persistent convection has helped some in mixing it out. Beating an old drum, but obviously land interaction will be key to future prospects, and there's still a split between legacy models and AI ensembles. The superensemble of legacy GFS/Euro still show a more northern track that takes this into the central Gulf coast. This is certainly a reasonable outcome if TD2 continues on a NNW heading. The AI ensembles however continue to show the risk that this gets "suppressed" a bit, and skirts the Louisiana coastline. The northerly shear probably keeps some of the worst weather off the coast, but there could still be plenty of impacts in rainfall and wind with banding. The higher end solutions seem to be off the table, but modest intensification still seems to be a reasonable expectation provided there are no sudden changes in the organization of the center.

Probably still on track to become a TS today. Still weak and disorganized given dry air and shear, but it's progresssing.

@weatherwiz you gotta remember it's July--you don't get a Beryl walking through the door often. Climo this time of year is for slow developing, messy homebrew off a stalled front and/or ULL. I have no doubt given the trend in organization today that this will become a TS. The question is whether it can fully expel the dry air that was giving it fits yesterday and keep building deep convection near the center. Proximity to land is an issue and northerly shear doesn't help with aligning the vortex. But you don't need a pristine environment for gradual organization and intensification. This isn't a horrible look.

63.4°/51.5° here at WXW2 Hoping I can get some clear skies tonight for some nighttime photography.

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The depression has generally changed little over the past several hours. The circulation remains well organized, and deep convection is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. An ASCAT pass from around 15Z showed peak winds of around 25 kt, and data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show winds of about that same value. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The depression remains rather large and somewhat diffuse, with the associated shower activity covering much of the eastern Gulf. The system has barely moved today. In fact, it has drifted southeastward over the past few hours. This slow motion is due to very weak steering currents, with the depression currently caught between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. Most of the models show the cyclone drifting northwestward over the next couple of days, and its outer bands could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday. A turn to the west or west-northwest is likely on Tuesday as the ridge over the U.S. builds eastward and becomes the primary steering feature. That motion should take the system along or just offshore of the northern Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The depression is expected to only slowly strengthen, especially in the short term, due to its sprawling structure, nearby dry air, and northeasterly vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of the Florida Panhandle. The shear could briefly let up during the middle of the week, and if the system is still over water at that time, it could strengthen some more. There remains a large spread in the model solutions that range from the system remaining a tropical depression to even becoming a hurricane. Given the mixed environmental conditions and some expected land interaction, the NHC intensity forecast lies between those solutions, but leans closer to the upper end of the guidance. However, it is worth emphasizing that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given the uncertainty of how much land the system will interact with. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect, 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Recon shows TD2 meandering with not much change in organization. Going to take time for meaningful intensification but ensembles are still bullish **if** the LLC can stay south.

Recon is out there now and no surprise there is a well defined LLC. Should help with future modeling.

Not time to do an analysis but I want to note that the intensity trend was increasing before the designation on some ensemble guidance, including quite an outlier on the EPS. If this stays further south there is a window more more modest development as it moves toward the western Gulf. But we'll see what recon finds and get that data assimilated so hurricane models and other guidance can get a better sense of things. Seeing GDM with some modest members is very interesting. Note sure what the EPS sees but let's see if 12z is similar. I think the NHC opening with a 60mph landfall with land interaction forecast should tell us this has potential.

He's a clown, but last year it all but ended on 7/30.

Heyyy we have homebrew No time to do much analysis right now, but the intensity trend has been ticking up with models starting to latch onto the idea that this stays over water. If this stays south of Louisiana, watch out.

I'll also say this is a big, big win for AI guidance, especially Euro AI and Euro AI ensembles. It identified the window and also latched onto a more western track early on. I continue to be highly impressed by AI sniffing out windows in marginal conditions.

The underrated days are often the best days. Tends to be a good rule of thumb around here. So many of our higher end days seem to be conditional, so it's no surprise that up here those conditions are harder to meet than most other places that get storms.

We bust.

Severe season ends with a dud. At least we had July 4th.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad surface low is located over the eastern Gulf of America. The associated winds are currently light, and the shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. However, gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days. Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

Discrete this afternoon, the line this evening.

Still a fair amount of ensembles that are showing development if this can stay out over water rather than get turned into FL. Good mid-level spin, but no real organization happening yet.

Mid-level spin but no indication of real organization yet.

Some pretty nasty supercell and sig tor numbers for western CT and points west on the 12z 3K Nammy. Soundings for HFD, BDL, and BDR. I'm still fairly skeptical of high end stuff here but I think it's an active day.