WxWatcher007

But hey at least we’ll get some cute cumulus clouds and pop up showers this weekend

Yes, with the 2017-24 period being extraordinarily brutal, especially in the Gulf. That said, even if the peak is quiet the downside of that slope still brings plenty of activity normally. I don’t anticipate that here but I still think we get a few hurricanes in the basin. Most likely in the subtropics or something.

When I went down to the Gulf Coast a few years ago, there were still foundation slabs dotting the landscape. Katrina wiped out neighborhoods and some people just never rebuilt. Sad stuff but a powerful reminder of what some of these hurricanes can do.

DC getting blasted right now. Insane lightning on radar.

Definitely worth watching further west, but it’s not much different from us…needing a hurricane to turn north and THEN hook into land. Hard to do. Honolulu has no history of a strike from the south for that reason. Too far east. Really interesting.

Looks like a very near miss to me. I had flights and hotels pulled up yesterday though.

Going to be nearly impossible to get anything that tries to spin up in the eastern tropical Atlantic to make it far. Just an incredible ribbon of shear across the MDR. It’s extraordinary how hostile the basin is.

1.64 since September 1 here at WXW1.

I think this sums it up, folks.

While we’re setting the O/U on audible thunder at 0.5

I think Wx Twitter is going in circles because this will be the last Atlantic TC we see in a while.

Don’t look at western NY

@weatherwiz those are some monster velocities in Canada on that TOR warned storm.

Found this interesting

Pac putting on a show now. I looked at ensembles today and I've perked up. Looking at the big ensemble, the turn has definitely trended east in the last few cycles. This is the 00z and I'm guessing 12z will be a bit further east.

Thanks, guys. You’re probably right—more climo and unstable environment than anything else. Really interesting to watch. Hopefully the folks down there are staying safe—I don’t recall any forecasts for FFE level rainfall.

Incredibly impressive radar and satellite appearance. Given the wind observations you noted @NorthHillsWx, maybe a bit of Brown Ocean Effect slowing decay at least?

Nearly 1.5” here (CT) today.

Thanks for posting the official landfall. I jumped the gun lol. We’ve made it to September without a hurricane.

We’re on to coastal season

We rain.

Landfall. Good effort.

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 Edouard is a small but strengthening tropical storm. The center has been trackable this morning using NWS radar data from Lake Charles, Louisiana (KLCH), and recent data show the inner-core structure of the system is becoming better organized. There has been a notable increase in deep convection near and to the south of the center, and a recent dropsonde released in that area reported mean boundary layer winds of 61 kt. Doppler velocities have also notably strengthened during the past couple of hours, and adjusting these data to estimate a surface wind support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt. The last center dropsonde from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 1000 mb. Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for additional strengthening for as long as the center remains offshore. With very warm Gulf waters and weak vertical wind shear, the hurricane regional models continue to highlight the potential for continued strengthening through landfall. The 12-h forecast point for Edouard is well inland, but note that additional strengthening is expected that cannot be easily reflected in the official forecast. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for portions of the Upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Given the improved radar structure of Edouard and the expectation of additional strengthening, NHC will issue hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU) beginning at 1100 am CDT (16 UTC). Once inland, Edouard is likely to rapidly weaken and should dissipate on Wednesday. Some short-term wobbles have been observed in radar data during the past few hours, but the longer-term motion of Edouard is northwestward (305/7 kt). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, which will bring the center of Edouard onshore near the Texas/Louisiana border within the warning area this afternoon and then inland across southeastern Texas tonight. The updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the previous prediction based on the latest consensus trends. Key Messages: 1. Edouard is strengthening as it approaches the northwest Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are beginning along the southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still possible from High Island to Cameron later today. 2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect along the immediate coast from High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, where peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible. 3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and Wednesday as Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 29.4N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 30.2N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/1200Z 31.2N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart