WxWatcher007

I’m stirring the pot but yeah, I do think we could see an ENH kind of day tomorrow in part of New England and the Mid-Atlantic.

For the weenies among us

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 15:50ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: ErickStorm Number & Year: 05 in 2025 (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 15:23:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.05N 95.98WB. Center Fix Location: 156 statute miles (252 km) to the SSW (199°) from Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,915m (9,564ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 8kts (From the NW at 9mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55kts (63.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 15:20:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 239° at 59kts (From the WSW at 67.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSE (151°) of center fix at 15:20:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the NNW (329°) of center fix at 15:26:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 50° at 76kts (From the NE at 87.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix at 15:26:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 0°C (32°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NW/NNW (326°) from the flight level center at 15:26:30Z

Pressure looks to be ~976-77mb per dropsonde.

Erick is really looking good. Recon will be interesting.

Nice call. GFS and Euro hint right at that tonight.

Miss those days, or should I say nights.

I was gone for a while but your melt the other day was an all timer. Short and sweet. As I hope you’ve seen by now, this place is just for laughs. There’s plenty of ribbing and sometimes it’s brutal lol but for the most part it’s all “love”. I like my summers but given where you came from I get wanting to have cooler summers. Imagine it…an early July day with a deep summer feel…90/68 with beach, barbecues, brews, and bikinis as far as the eye can see…kids laughing playing in the sand, the sound of cans opening and bottles clinking as the waves roll in. Phones down, music up. The way it’s meant to be.

While I think it’ll be hot, I’m still skeptical of a long duration “big heat” wave—big heat defined as 95°+ temperatures or 100°+ heat indices.

Yeah and this year probably has the biggest signal yet for a lower activity eastern MDR even as the last few years in the tropical Atlantic has struggled. Given that we’ve blown the top off what’s possible with CAGs in this last decade, those climatologically favorable periods should be watched closely.

Excessive Heat Warnings or bust. High of 78° on the dot at home.

101/62 would work

I can’t remember the last time I went to a fast food chain

Still skeptical of that we end up with a big dog heat event, but the signal is definitely there for legit heat at least. I always sit up a little when Tip starts to talk Sonoran heat release. I’m guessing we fail Thursday

All the vorticity that could’ve become a seedling for TC development has stayed in the EPAC, which has led to a furious start over there. The Atlantic window is probably closed for the foreseeable future, at least in the western Caribbean and Gulf.

All the vorticity that could’ve become a seedling for TC development has stayed in the EPAC, which has led to a furious start over there. The Atlantic window is probably closed for the foreseeable future, at least in the western Caribbean and Gulf.

Sorry, Wiz

Very interesting. Maybe a move from the Gulf threats to recurve and EC risk.

65 and rainy here on June 10 at 1pm

Only problem is it doesn’t snow here anymore.

EPAC is hot right now. Nothing likely to happen here until that quiets down, but I do still think a window will open.

I don’t think we’re going back yet. The last few years have been so incredibly warm in the basin that it almost had to pull back once we moved away from the recent ENSO regime. As for this season…the SSTA in the tropical Atlantic and subtropics kind of scream stability issues but it’s early still. I’d like to see how waves fare as they come off Africa more continuously.

Heavy precipitation missing with precision.

I’m so sorry to hear that. Iirc you mentioned that before. Every single day is a gift.