WxWatcher007

I don't think people realize how hard it is to get true CVs this way. Not just here in New England, but the entire U.S. coastline. I went back the other day and ran some numbers. Since the start of our exceptionally busy period of Atlantic activity in 2017, there have been 157 named storms in the basin. Only 19, or 12% of those systems, have been CVs--which I defined as developing within about 5 degrees of the Cabo Verde Islands. Of those 19 CVs, only 3 (16%) have impacted land. Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Larry in 2021. Now, to the point that some have made, Florence and Larry were infamously locks to go OTS before they weren't, but statistically that's rare. CVs that made landfall accounts for just 1.9% of all the storms that developed in the 2017-25 period. It takes an extraordinary set of circumstances for CVs to hit the US.

Yeah that doesn't look like a TC to me despite the southwesterlies. That was a quick trip by recon lol. 98L is out of time.

Forecast to be 120kt in 72 hours, so this should take off once it can shake off possible dry air entrainment. Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025 Erin has become better organized during the past several hours. The last few NOAA and Air Force Reserve aircraft passes through the cyclone have indicated the formation of an eyewall, with the Air Force Reserve aircraft reporting 700-mb flight-level winds of 75 kt northeast of the center. In addition, conventional satellite imagery shows the development of a central dense overcast, and a recently received WSFM microwave overpass shows a well-defined ring of shallow to moderate convection in the 37 GHz imagery. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt and Erin becomes the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The initial motion is 290/15. The subtropical ridge to the north will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward into the weekend. Encroaching mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a weakness to develop in the ridge during the latter part of the forecast period, and this will result in the hurricane gradually turning northwestward and northward by 120 h. The guidance remains in fairly good agreement through about 60-72 hours. After that time, there are some differences in both the forward speed and cross-track spread with the turn toward the north. The regional hurricane models again lie along the western edge of the guidance envelope, while the GFS and Google DeepMind models remain on the eastern edge. Although still spread, the guidance envelope has not shifted significantly since the last advisory, and the new track forecast is an update of the previous forecast. There is still uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range. Erin is currently in a favorable environment for strengthening, although there are some uncertainties on whether dry air is entraining into the core. The improved low-level structure indicates potential for rapid strengthening, and based on this the first 36-48 h of the new intensity forecast shows a faster development rate. After 48 h, the hurricane is forecast to encounter some northerly to northwesterly vertical shear that should at least slow development. However, the global and regional hurricane models are in good agreement that Erin will become a powerful and increasingly large hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic over the weekend and into next week. It should be noted that the the Florida State SuperEnsemble and the US Navy COAMPS-TC models forecast higher peak intensities than the official forecast, so it would not be too surprising if Erin became stronger than currently forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the weekend. 3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week. 4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf by the middle part of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 18.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 19.8N 61.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 20.6N 63.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 21.6N 66.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 22.7N 67.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 23.8N 69.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 26.5N 70.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 30.3N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 15 Location: 18.2°N 56.1°W Moving: WNW at 18 mph Min pressure: 996 mb Max sustained: 75 mph First hurricane of the Atlantic season

The NHC has not officially declared this a hurricane on its site.

I haven’t weighed in on the great debate and I love summer, but the dog days are over and the step down is here. Still summer…but you know what’s coming next.

It’ll get there. It’s organizing, it’s just not pretty. The environment is favorable and if a closed eyewall holds it’ll intensify today and probably take off this weekend.

998mb with a closed eye per the VDM. Can’t say I recall a system this messy with such a high pressure having a closed eye.

98L is making one final push before reaching the coastline, with deep convection continuing to fire. Radar doesn’t show much organization imo but frictional convergence may help later.

Now we're seeing a burst of convection near the apparent center, and this may be particularly well timed should it sustain itself through the diurnal max. We'll see if this leads to TC genesis. Given the structural organization that seemed to be underway this evening, it probably increases the odds. This was a few hours ago before this burst

Man I haven’t seen that style loop in ages

That’s awesome

Update

My .03 backyard tells the Euro to go to hell in winter and summah.

Despite the IR appearance, it does look like 98L is organizing more now. Again, not a lot of time, but the NHC has upped the development odds given the trends we're starting to see.

I thought that too originally but I think it might be tilt rather than missing the center. Either way, the fix shows (at least right now) a motion just south of due west. Those fixes will be really important for short term modeling and the islands.

I know I'm not the only one that wants this place to continue being what it has been (for the most part)--a place for analysis and sharing information & passion for tropical meteorology.

8:00 PM AST Thu Aug 14 Location: 16.9°N 51.9°W Moving: W at 17 mph Min pressure: 999 mb Max sustained: 70 mph

Recon making its descent. Should start getting meaningful data soon.

We have some light westerlies in that most recent batch of data from recon which is meaningful, but still, not terribly organized.

Me yesterday.

98L is still very disorganized per recon so far.

Recon just started so we're going to get a sense soon of what the structure of this is.

Still squarely a threat to Newfoundland.