WxWatcher007

I don’t think it’s broad looking at the sharper wind shifts on recon, but it is weak—probably because it’s only now starting to tighten up and convection is limited.

Some evening analysis

Although the convection is weak and disorganized, recon is now showing a much more well defined circulation, which if it holds will allow for gradual organization. Note how much tighter the circulation is in the image above, compared to some of the recon images posted earlier. You can also see a pocket of slightly stronger winds on the far eastern side of the system. Below you can see how the circulation is becoming better organized. Slowly. Convection is weak, but there has been some firing of stronger thunderstorms near the center. Shear has remained an issue through the day, but analysis shows that the shear may be abating, especially near the center. TD9 is in one of the best thermal environments in the entire Atlantic, so if it can start generating deep convection over its tightening center it should gradually intensify. While I am posting the SHIPS here, there looks to have been a bit of an uptick from hurricane guidance in overall intensity over the coming days. That's something we'll need to pay attention to, with the caveat that the trough and possible dry air will continue to lurk and will likely put a cap on intensity. Now for the track. There is increasing confidence that future Imelda will in fact turn away from the SE coast, but there is still a lot of uncertainty on how close the center gets to the coast and critically, the speed of the turn. Most guidance now turns the system away from the coast and accelerates it east into an Humberto created weakness. But within this evolving track forecast there are two diverging camps. The first, and most numerous, is one that easily follows Humberto out to sea. The second, which is led by the Euro and Euro AI to an extent, turns the system more slowly and allows a ridge to build over the top and close the escape route. The result is Imelda being turned back toward the coast. There aren't a lot of members that are held back, but the ones that do are pretty strong. So while it very well may be the case that this does turn and accelerate out to sea, there's still uncertainty. Remember, the models struggled with this inside of 100 hours. I'm not sure we should be locking in anything 5+ days out yet. Additional recon and finally having a well defined center should help with both track and intensity guidance. Finally, just because this is likely to stay offshore initially, that doesn't mean no impacts. TS force winds, coastal flooding, and flash flooding are still squarely hazards for coastal FL, GA, and the Carolinas. Just slight track changes could make the flood threat more impactful along the coast.

Humberto C5 Second of the year.

My God. That’s as good as it gets structurally.

About as impressive as you’ll ever see in the Atlantic basin.

You’d be hard pressed to find many Atlantic hurricanes with a better satellite appearance than this. I’d be shocked if this wasn’t a 5 at 5pm.

Yeah there are still some pretty substantial differences even at short(ish) range here. I don’t think there’s any one model that’s definitively right or wrong right now, though it’s obviously much higher confidence at the moment that there will be some kind of eastward turn at the coast.

Definitely a summer feel out here today.

How about we keep the wishcasting and nonsense bust posting out of the thread? Recon just submitted a VDM. I think that should be enough for a designation at 11. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 13:54ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2025Mission Identifier: Ptc09 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 11Observation Number: 28 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 13:04:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.00N 76.00WB. Center Fix Location: 129 statute miles (208 km) to the ENE (71°) from Camagüey, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,144m (10,315ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 25kts (From the SE at 29mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not AvailableI. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NAJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 27kts (From between the SE and SSE at 31.1mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SE (135°) of center fix at 13:02:18ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not AvailableM. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NAN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 40° at 25kts (From the NE at 28.8mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix at 13:08:03ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SE (135°) from the flight level center at 13:02:18Z

And should that happen, the longitude of future Imelda will be key to whether this gets steered back to the coast or merely meanders until the trough eventually arrives to kick it into the North Atlantic. Like @donsutherland1 I’m skeptical of it getting steered back west right now but it’s on the table.

It looks like there may be enough of a wind shift to designate this at 11am.

SHIPS has some decent odds of RI occurring relative to climo. Maybe something to watch as the organizational trend continues today.

As I hope we all learned yesterday, we’re nowhere near having all the answers on the medium and longer range track. From the very beginning we knew Humberto and the steering pattern made this a highly complex forecast and some of us kind of settled into believing a false consensus on the models(EPS/GEFS)—myself included. I don’t think we know what’s going to happen yet. We just have to keep monitoring and communicating the track uncertainty. There’s also fairly substantial intensity uncertainty. Recon is in the PTC and is finding westerly winds now so it’s on an organizing trend even if the low is still broad. We will eventually have a defined enough center for a TC designation. Importantly, this is on the edge of the deep convection firing north of Cuba. In this kind of situation we have to watch for center reformations if deep convection continues, which here could significantly impact track. One thing is clear: the PTC is organizing at a steadier pace given the recon findings and satellite appearance.

Euro AI is back to the idea of running this up the coast as it gets trapped under the ridge and the Euro at 144 seems like it wants to trap future Imelda as well. Not worth much at this time but still something to watch. If the ridge doesn’t roll over to block the escape route future Imelda goes right OTS.

It had the stall and move east before the Euro/GFS and ensembles. The AI models have actually been excellent this season on balance. Of course, we’ll see how this all verifies.

Canadian starts out that way, but then gets trapped under the ridge and a much weaker version of future Imelda gets pulled into New England. Verbatim stuff aside, if this becomes a situation where it will be a close scrape of the SE coast, we’ll need to pay close attention to the orientation of this ridge and whether it closes off an escape route as Imelda tries moving eastward. I was always skeptical of Imelda getting well inland and I brought the ridging closing the escape route up as a possibility yesterday. While I’d be skeptical of some sort of threat further north, it really seems like anything is on the table. Anomalous ridging does anomalous things. Sometimes.

Humberto is a little west of track and is now forecast to become our second category five hurricane of the season.

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025 Humberto has continued to intensify rapidly this evening. The eye temperature has increased to 15C and the eyewall white ring (-73C) is nearly closed. A 2137 UTC WSFM-1 HiRes microwave pass indicated that a concentric ring was developing about 65 nm from the eye. The initial intensity is raised to 125 kt and is close to the UW-CIMSS ADT of T6.4 and above the constrained subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. All intensity contributions, low shear, warm waters, and ample mid-level moisture, appear conducive for Humberto to intensify rapidly during the next 12-24 hours. DTOPS guidance indicates a high probability of RI during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest official intensity forecast follows suit, bringing Humberto to a peak intensity of 140 kt Saturday night. By the 36 hour period, however, inner-core fluctuations as a result of eyewall replacement cycles (ERC) are possible, and it's difficult to forecast the exact timing. It's worth mentioning, however, that the UW-CIMSS M-PERC (Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle) statistical model is predicting a 61 percent of onset. By mid-next week, increasing vertical shear spreading over Humberto should induce a gradual weakening trend. At the same time, while it passes west of Bermuda, a significant expansion in the surface wind field will likely occur. The NHC intensity forecast is just above the previous forecast through the 36 hour period, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA consensus and the HAFS/HWRF/HMON hurricane models. Humberto has taken a trochoidal jog to the left of the track this evening, likely due to the rapid intensification event. The initial motion is estimated to be slightly south of due west, or 265/6 kt. Humberto is expected to move slowly toward the west or west-northwest during the next day or so in the easterly steering flow provided by mid-tropospheric high pressure located to the north of the cyclone and just east of Bermuda. Around the 48 hour period, or Sunday evening, a northwestward turn with some reduction in forward speed is forecast while the above-mentioned high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. By day 4, Humberto should commence a rather abrupt turn northward and northeastward in response to a major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of northeastern Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic. The official track forecast is located just to the left of the previous advisory, primarily due to the initial motion left of track, and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble model. NOAA buoy 41044, located about 38 n mi southwest of the center, has reported falling pressure,sustained tropical-storm-force winds, gusts just below hurricane-force and 17 ft seas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 22.1N 58.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 22.7N 61.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 23.6N 63.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 24.8N 65.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 26.2N 67.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 32.1N 68.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

WOW Humberto now forecast to become a cat 5

Good to see the Euro AI take up the annual challenge of throwing tropical up the bay

Yeah we have a long way to go…

Even with this half scan, Humberto is an absolute beast.

It would be an enormous coup, especially considering where the ensembles were.

I'm surprised you didn't post the skynet version