WxWatcher007

Let’s gooooo

Cutters, precip chasing cold, storms bombing too far east/too late. Big rainers. Aside from a fluke storm here it’s another ratter. That said, I hope the NNE peeps get clobbered. I’d chase if I weren’t so done with anything wintry. Also, March Madness.

Some programs you can almost bank on collapsing/underachieving in March. Despite the championship, UVA is one of those programs IMO.

Hydro risk far higher around here, especially if we can get a cutoff close enough next week after the weekend rainer.

All my foolishness aside, it does look like a legitimate possibility to see some measurable here in the lowlands, especially if it’s timed overnight Fri/Sat. That said—let’s see where this is Friday.

ACATT slowly capitulating by Saturday’s rainer?

Speaking of floods, the benchmark flood.

At least it gives us another wiping option. 1-ply Euro AI if you want to be bold 2-ply GFS if you want an economical option 3-ply Euro Classic if you want a luxury wiping experience

Usually the deluge doesn’t come until Christmas so maybe it knows something we don’t

I’m totally screwing around. Can you imagine?

Of course Skynet waits until it’s a winter weenie wasteland in New England. Palm trees and parakeets in coastal CT and bodies being revealed as the permafrost up north is blasted by Morch. Fortunately, unlike the non-sentient models this one’ll learn from it’s epic winter pattern forecasting mistakes.

We out. On to spring in SNE.

Rainfall rate briefly peaked at 2.62”/hr here

We pour

High end activity will probably be hard given climo but the last decade suggests we see some pre/early season activity. Warm waters are an important factor, though often oversimplified. If the trend continues we’re looking at off the charts warmth in the Atlantic basin—it’s not just absolute SSTs but the extent of warm anomalies and depth across the MDR. It’s historic in its own right. Here are OHC values from two eventual historic seasons—2017, 2020…and today. The AMO configuration looks big time. That can feedback into weaker trades. The Nina is huge obviously for reducing shear across the MDR. We have to watch SAL activity in June/July. Our big seasons tend to have activity at least trying further east during the summer. Obviously let’s get to later in the spring to say it’s all systems go but I think we’re looking at a top ten season at least. The factors suggesting activity heading into the 2024 season are unlike what we’ve seen for recent active years. Grain of salt for these but anything close to this speaks for itself.

Congratulations on an all timer of a chase. There’s no price too high for a true once in a lifetime experience. That’s incredible. Horrifying and incredible.

Wheeeee Congrats to the thriving moss imby.

Could moss just get replaced by adding a shade wildflower/grass?

46 definitely isn’t mild. Isn’t that close to climo? A high of 62 here is a different story. Much more cloudy here now after a pretty sunny afternoon.

Where’s Pope to talk about the temp bust? 62 and sunny here. Great day out.

That was wild. Looking toward Hartford NYC

It has been obscenely active in the Gulf, but aside from Isaias, the East Coast has been spared. Fiona could’ve been legit if the mid level pattern were slightly different and obviously Henri further west could’ve been more impactful here. I do think that this season will feature a more consistent Atlantic ridge and WAR but at this stage that’s fairly speculative.

People have been here for decades and still can’t understand it. The morality stuff is tedious.

Spectacular day. 65.4° with ample sun and a nice little breeze.