WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Isaias made landfall as a 90-kt hurricane at 0130 UTC near Destin, Florida. Since that time, the radar structure of the storm has continued to degrade as strong vertical wind shear disrupts the circulation. However, Eglin AFB (KEVX) radar data and surface observations indicate damaging, gusty winds are persisting in the residual northern eyewall and in a band wrapping around the western side of the circulation. Now that the system is farther inland and losing organization, the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory. Isaias is rapidly losing tropical characteristics, and it is forecast to become post-tropical within the next 12 h while it continues moving quickly northward through Alabama. Although the sustained surface winds associated with Isaias will quickly weaken now that the storm is inland, damaging wind gusts associated with the system are expected to extend well inland through Saturday, especially in areas of higher terrain. Because of this, the gust factors in the forecast have been slightly increased during the first 24 h. A turn toward the northeast is forecast later this weekend, bringing the center of the system into the Tennessee Valley before it dissipates. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Suwannee, Florida where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia and the southern Appalachians, westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. 5. The tornado potential will continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 30.8N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 32.7N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 34.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 36.9N 84.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Yeah that’s my point. Those offshore sustained winds rarely get measured onshore. Idk why people here think those NHC operational winds will tear through the landfall zone. The gusts imo tell the story. They’re legit.

Thank you so much for your reports. I hope you and your family/property make it through ok. Slim pickings the last two seasons. Hurricane chaser convergence is an interesting experience.

Right at landfall. Good short range forecast by GDM and a few others.

Max winds at 105 looks about right given onshore obs and gusts. Y’all do this every hurricane lol.

He’s bored in his backyard

60mph gusts starting to be reported along the coast.

Yes, despite the erosion of the low level inner core, there’s still plenty of deep convection and lightning. This will still be a strong hurricane, as the NHC has said for a while now.

We'll see. Recon is showing maybe some hints of shear starting to impact the core. We're very fortunate the shear is here.

I'll just add note the deep convection with lightning that continues to fire around the center. As long as that happens, this isn't weakening any.

I see 951.6mb extrap. A very substantial fall.

Idk. While the impacts in the Mid-Atlantic and northeast may be more mundane, I do think that the fact this is going to eventually interact with a shortwave as it pulls north is a red flag for inland areas that are on the eastern side of the center. That combo can be a prolific tornado producer. I also think we need to consider how this holds together inland. This is one of the areas where models like HAFS have been falling short. Now we see this being fairly well put together inland, and that means hurricane gusts could be possible well inland. From the 11am discussion in part: Weakening will occur after landfall, but sustained hurricane-force winds will likely occur near and along Isaias's track up to 100 miles inland from the coast into southern Alabama, and gusts to hurricane force could extend even farther north into central Alabama. Isaias is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by 36 hours when it is over northern Alabama.

Question for @Sey-Mour Snow @weatherwiz @CT Rain How much would CT benefit from having its own mesonet? Does being a small state cut against its need? I know we already have several airport stations around the state, but would a mesonet aid in long term data collection and forecasting in a way that would outweigh the cost of setup and maintenance?

Yeah, on a NNE heading. Due north may not happen until it's on final approach, which is important for shear purposes.

One thing that I alluded to earlier but want to say now...both HAFS A & B have this peaking in the next few hours around 115kt. HAFS-B gets this to 123kt around 18z. If we get anywhere close to that it's going to be hard to avoid a major landfall.

Not on radar, but that tower is producing substantial lightning now in the northern part of the eyewall.

Updated images. Note the new tower going up around the eyewall.

FWIW, which is not much at the moment, the GFS/Euro/Euro AI and ensembles have troughing roll through the eastern U.S. around October 18th. It could be enough to trigger another coastal.

Would love to see recon sample the eastern eyewall again. It just passed the NE portion of the eyewall. 958.7mb extrapolated so far.

First light

Recon is heading in for another pass.

Sorry, here was the D3 text and categorical risk. Doesn't say tor risk but I think we know... ...Delmarva into the Carolinas... Considerable strengthening of the deep-layer wind field is forecast on Sunday in advance of the midlevel trough. However, considerable cloud cover and areas of precipitation appear likely to limit air mass destabilization within the poleward-expanding warm sector. Nonetheless, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s will support pockets of modest instability, especially in areas where cloud breaks may occur. And given the presence of relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear, a conditional risk for severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes will exist Sunday into Sunday evening. Higher severe weather probabilities may be required in later forecasts if subsequent model data indicate greater instability than that currently depicted.