WxWatcher007

Live cam of Montego Bay looks even more ferocious now.

The live feed looks fierce right now.

As we are all rightfully concerned with the impact on Jamaica right now, I also want to take a moment to discuss the environment after Melissa leaves Jamaica. What happens next is highly dependent on structure--how much the mountainous terrain disrupt Melissa's inner core. Melissa has an very small core. On one hand, that increases the odds that over the coming hours the center is significantly disrupted, reducing the risk of reintensification over water. On the other, such an intense inner core is inertially stable, making it possible that if a strong enough core emerges from the coast, it is able to take advantage of the environment, if favorable enough. The key is shear, and Melissa is straddling the line (and has been lately) between favorable and more modest deep layer shear. Looking at the environment however, shear may not be as much of an issue until Melissa crosses Cuba. In fact, the shear has been subtly declining ahead of its path. The extraordinarily favorable thermal environment that helped Melissa become an upper echelon C5 isn't quite as favorable after Jamaica, but it seems to be plenty if Melissa has the time and space to reorganize. Finally, the diurnal cycle that has helped Melissa may prove favorable once again as the storm approaches Cuba later tonight. Just something to keep in mind. All dependent on how much the core is disrupted today. (Edit: and what the actual shear profile is later)

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA... ...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches). THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection. The next position update will be provided with the intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

Yep. I believe I was in one during Idalia. There was a dramatic increase and sudden shift in wind.

Would've been right on. Truly unbelievable to witness a landfall at the intensity and pressure...and to know that Wilma was 10mb deeper. Insane.

It's the center of the eye crossing land that determines landfall.

Landfall appears imminent.

Landfall appears imminent. That TC report is already highly anticipated.

You gotta respect the storm. The good chasers know that--whether in a TC or on the Plains. All of this stuff is a calculated risk to begin with, so there's no sense in putting yourself or others in unnecessary danger by driving through a storm (which I've seen in every MH I've chased), playing around with surge, or putting yourself in an unsafe structure. You can collect great data and good footage without doing all that.

Always watch those last minute trends. I never feel "comfortable" in the final track until the eyewall is on my doorstep. (Context for the lurkers--I'm a chaser lol) Yeah, the other side of possibly missing dead center is that you end up sort of stranded in the eyewall. During Laura I missed the eye but was in the RFQ of the eyewall for the entire time. It was relentless.

Was just going to post. Glad they made it out ok.

Nah, I'm no yahoo, as you know. Rule 1 is to stay away from water danger. Rule 2 is to shelter appropriately. I always make sure I do my research before traveling. I've even pulled permits for possible chase shelters before. Consult with pro mets before and during an high end event to make sure I'm not missing anything in my analysis. Dangerous, yes, but not without doing everything I can to mitigate risk to myself and others. Island roulette though is too much of a wildcard for me. No radar, fragile communication infrastructure, no true escape routes. If I were to do my first island chase, it wouldn't have been for this one.

Strongest storm on Earth this year.

Man it is SO hard to do a live stream in a storm. You're in full sensory overload in these things and trying not to get hit by debris, not to mention dealing with loss of signal/service. Respect to the people that are able to get out a live stream. They earn their keep.

The idea that we're seriously talking about gusts over 200 speaks to the exceptional power of this storm. Most people don't fully comprehend how strong that is.

Yeah, there are a lot of stronger structures from what I've heard and I'll also remind folks that although they should absolutely get extreme winds, it won't be at 185mph sustained. Friction knocks down sustained winds substantially away from exposed places right on the shoreline. Gusts? Those will be wild.

My hypothetical chase location would've been dead on.

Tied for third strongest in Atlantic history. Will be one of the strongest landfalls since Labor Day.

Yeah. He's literally the best at this. As long as you can avoid surge and flash flooding, you can get through it in a sturdy building. I'm worried about all the people not in good shelter.

The south eyewall Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:06ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: MelissaStorm Number: 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 23Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 28th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 17.6N 78.0W Location: 84 statute miles (134 km) to the WSW (250°) from Kingston, Jamaica. Marsden Square: 044 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 927mb (27.38 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 24.4°C (76°F) 185° (from the S) 172 knots (198 mph) 925mb 20m (66 ft) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 24.2°C (76°F) 185° (from the S) 174 knots (200 mph) 850mb 755m (2,477 ft) 20.0°C (68.0°F) 20.0°C (68°F) 240° (from the WSW) 187 knots (215 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 13:50Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 180° (S) from the eye center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 17.58N 78.03W - Time: 13:50:52Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 17.66N 77.91W - Time: 13:54:00Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 192 knots (221 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 147 knots (169 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 713mb to 926mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 188 knots (216 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 40001 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 927mb (Surface) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 24.4°C (76°F) 924mb 24.2°C (75.6°F) About 15°C (59°F) 887mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) 21.4°C (71°F) 850mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) 20.0°C (68°F) 825mb 21.2°C (70.2°F) 21.2°C (70°F) 801mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) 21.4°C (71°F) 709mb 15.8°C (60.4°F) 15.8°C (60°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 927mb (Surface) 185° (from the S) 172 knots (198 mph) 924mb 190° (from the S) 171 knots (197 mph) 922mb 185° (from the S) 179 knots (206 mph) 921mb 185° (from the S) 185 knots (213 mph) 919mb 190° (from the S) 187 knots (215 mph) 918mb 190° (from the S) 195 knots (224 mph) 917mb 190° (from the S) 189 knots (217 mph) 916mb 195° (from the SSW) 203 knots (234 mph) 915mb 195° (from the SSW) 189 knots (217 mph) 914mb 195° (from the SSW) 189 knots (217 mph) 912mb 205° (from the SSW) 206 knots (237 mph) 911mb 205° (from the SSW) 215 knots (247 mph) 907mb 205° (from the SSW) 214 knots (246 mph) 906mb 205° (from the SSW) 219 knots (252 mph) 901mb 215° (from the SW) 207 knots (238 mph) 890mb 215° (from the SW) 201 knots (231 mph) 884mb 220° (from the SW) 184 knots (212 mph) 879mb 220° (from the SW) 176 knots (203 mph) 867mb 225° (from the SW) 182 knots (209 mph) 864mb 225° (from the SW) 190 knots (219 mph) 862mb 225° (from the SW) 192 knots (221 mph) 860mb 230° (from the SW) 211 knots (243 mph) 858mb 230° (from the SW) 198 knots (228 mph) 856mb 230° (from the SW) 196 knots (226 mph) 853mb 235° (from the SW) 185 knots (213 mph) 850mb 240° (from the WSW) 187 knots (215 mph) 846mb 245° (from the WSW) 197 knots (227 mph) 831mb 265° (from the W) 171 knots (197 mph) 830mb 255° (from the WSW) 189 knots (217 mph) 827mb 260° (from the W) 181 knots (208 mph) 826mb 265° (from the W) 166 knots (191 mph) 825mb 265° (from the W) 170 knots (196 mph) 820mb 270° (from the W) 141 knots (162 mph) 808mb 265° (from the W) 160 knots (184 mph) 801mb 260° (from the W) 144 knots (166 mph) 789mb 260° (from the W) 163 knots (188 mph) 773mb 265° (from the W) 115 knots (132 mph) 750mb 270° (from the W) 140 knots (161 mph) 741mb 255° (from the WSW) 110 knots (127 mph) 730mb 250° (from the WSW) 106 knots (122 mph) 713mb 255° (from the WSW) 133 knots (153 mph)

Just caught up. There are no words to describe the extraordinary meteorological event underway. Melissa has taken advantage of a unique environment for intensification, and like many of our landfalling systems in the last decade, is intensifying on final approach. My God.