Marginal…for now…very interesting nowcast coming up.
Northeast...
A somewhat complex severe weather scenario exists for the Northeast,
from Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Scattered strong
thunderstorms (perhaps a remnant MCS) may cross from southeastern
Ontario and progress toward the Hudson Valley region during the
morning. Should this occur, convective restrengthening is possible
along the leading edge of outflow over the Mid Atlantic, with strong
to potentially severe wind gusts likely. However, if convection
moving into the Northeast by Sunday morning is less robust,
convective re-intensification may be more likely farther north into
southern New England. A more focused severe threat would be highly
dependent on the placement and evolution of earlier convection/MCS
morphology across Ontario during the late Day 1 period, which
currently has low predictability. Despite weak vertical wind shear,
of concern is the eastward advection of a modest EML into the
Northeast, which may boost MLCAPE well over 3000 J/kg (perhaps over
4000 J/kg locally). Higher severe probabilities may be needed if
confidence in the placement and/or timing of more organized
convection increases.