WxWatcher007

Red sky at night, weenies take flight?

Starting to see lightning detected to our south. Edit: adding IR

We do discussion and obs threads for fall storms? (Not arguing, just asking)

It was spectacular. Only lasted a few minutes before the color changed.

I think 60 is possible along the CT coast, with maybe a spot 65 in SE CT.

Respectfully submitted

Let him go There should be HWW for the coast, especially SE CT imo.

Should be a good one.

This is the 06z Euro HFD GON HVN IJD

No. This isn’t tropical or subtropical currently.

Given how close to the coast it is modeled to get, I think so eventually—whether initially along the NJ coast or when it’s weaker and moving NE over part of New England.

I think the only caveat there is if we get real banding. I can see periods where it pours under those and people see localized issues.

Paging @Ginx snewx

995mb at 12z per WPC

Thanks. Not saying it’s right obviously but that would be nasty across much of the area.

12z HRRR would be wild

Yeah, for those following--this was never going to be purely tropical. We're talking about possibly a shallow warm core system. To be tropical it would need to shed the fronts it's attached to. But the title is what it is for a reason. We're talking hybrid here or maybe subtropical if things break right. Convection near the center, banding features, etc.. All that is still on the table once this really ramps up later today and tonight. As it stands however, we're all systems go. Good pressure falls are underway and our storm is organizing right where we want it. Big rainfall is still on the table along with significant winds especially along the coast. Euro is still most robust between it and the GFS on 925mb winds. Close call for mixing on the soundings.

Happening as we get closer to gametime too. Might be converging toward that middle ground I talked about last night. Another 50-100mi north wouldn't be outrageous. This is still a tough setup to precisely predict.

Rain forecasts from the GFS and Euro at 00z. Ugly stuff from the Euro.

18z Euro was pretty wet. Sorry if someone posted earlier.

Latest microwave for Fay. It has another window to do something. We'll see if the second time's the charm.

Look at that first loop!!! That's 100% tropical. Look at that convection wrap tightly around the center. Beautiful. Riding right along the Gulf Stream. Perfect location.

Ray's favorite.