WxWatcher007

No disagreement there. I’m thinking that as we see more penetrating cold fronts, offshore coastal lows, and CAG season opening up late September into October, things pick up. Maybe we get something else in the MDR, but it seems unlikely to me. I still have 3 H and 1 MH for my peak season forecast.

Going to be extremely close for a eye pass, but an eyewall scrape will be rough.

Should be impactful but they still dodged a bullet

Low of 49°. Coldest since June. Only 47° up at WXW2, but that’s enough for SLK to reach 37°.

All about location. Been a beautiful weekend here in EH. Only a quick .04” here yesterday. 63/57 currently 54/49 at WXW2

I still think there will be life in the Atlantic eventually. But it’s going to be a while and the windows will be narrow—geographically and time wise.

@40/70 Benchmark do you think the current volcanic eruption will impact things at all?

It's really interesting to see the strides made by AI guidance in recent years. We'll see if that continues into this winter. As I remember it, AI ensembles were great least year when legacy guidance was too quick to kick our coastal events out to sea.

And 500mb

My God, the GFS.

The AMO is SO important. People really do forget how the Atlantic can vary for decades at a time! Doesn’t mean we can’t get a big event during a “lull” but of all the areas where you really need to care about the longer historical record, tropical is it. I’ll also just note, this is an extremely impressive season so far—it just happens to be on the other side of the activity spectrum. To have this little ACE, this deep into the general climatological peak in the Atlantic, it’s really something to behold.

What a year in Hawaii

I'm going to take the over on that. Way over.

That's where my head is at too. I was once ready to totally write off winter, but I think AN precip while we struggle with the battle zone for temps in southern and maybe central NE is going to be the theme of the season. And that can work out very well, but I'm guessing we need less of that fast flow crap and more active STJ. Problem with the stalled front is that way more often than not they just carry whatever develops OTS. Speaking my language. Hybrid would work just fine.

For CT at least, July 4th was a pretty big widespread severe event day. Otherwise, pretty much crickets. It's not that it's quiet, it's that north south and west of us have had big years. Hell, even the fish have seen better storms than some of us. Going to need a lot more than warm SSTs for something off the coast. Tropical waves can't get to the western Atlantic because shear is absolutely obliterating them. Dolly formed, ran into a buzzsaw, and even when it found a favorable environment off the SE coast it couldn't do anything because there was nothing left. Going to need either a well-timed wave to make it through the gauntlet into the Bahamas late September or a CAG system yanked north in October. Anything popping off a stalled front is just going to pass well OTS. 20-30 years of a quiet(er) Atlantic...

But hey at least we’ll get some cute cumulus clouds and pop up showers this weekend

Yes, with the 2017-24 period being extraordinarily brutal, especially in the Gulf. That said, even if the peak is quiet the downside of that slope still brings plenty of activity normally. I don’t anticipate that here but I still think we get a few hurricanes in the basin. Most likely in the subtropics or something.

When I went down to the Gulf Coast a few years ago, there were still foundation slabs dotting the landscape. Katrina wiped out neighborhoods and some people just never rebuilt. Sad stuff but a powerful reminder of what some of these hurricanes can do.

DC getting blasted right now. Insane lightning on radar.

Definitely worth watching further west, but it’s not much different from us…needing a hurricane to turn north and THEN hook into land. Hard to do. Honolulu has no history of a strike from the south for that reason. Too far east. Really interesting.

Looks like a very near miss to me. I had flights and hotels pulled up yesterday though.

Going to be nearly impossible to get anything that tries to spin up in the eastern tropical Atlantic to make it far. Just an incredible ribbon of shear across the MDR. It’s extraordinary how hostile the basin is.