WxWatcher007

That’s how I feel doing yard work now lol

Life above the tree line is a beautiful thing

Might want to see a doctor about that?

CSU taking ‘em down a bit

I’ll admit, it’s pretty legit. I was one of those that laughed it off early, but I’ve heard people having some serious well trouble. Don’t need to be California level to be bad.

You think he’s inflating the size of his mound?

It’s always really interesting to me how hilly CT gets outside of the shoreline and valley. I’m in one of the highest spots in town now and my elevation is only 105 ft lol.

The only exception to that is if it’s a true monster and everyone gets smoked. If there’s a nuke and Will gets 40” while I’m at 20” it’s fine because 20” is high end here no matter the storm.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ve lived in a snow hole most of my life. DC, CT valley, SC. I don’t care about the jackpot, and if given a choice I’d love for everyone to snow. But less than half of the jack? No thanks. The blizzard was nice but it sucked getting a couple inches of powder while Steve was buried. Spread the love.

Absolutely not.

False start for now.

Finally some fantasy homebrew on the GFS!

I think it was 2001 for BDL and 2006 for HFD.

So close yet so far away here. Nice storm but nothing memorable here. I know you got the goods.

If we did hit 100 here in CT, it’d be the first time in about 15-20 years we had a 100 in August. That’s impressive to me.

100 or bust.

Idk about NOAA @weatherwiz, but I love CSU and I think they look much deeper than general ENSO. To me they’re an example of people that do it right. There are always areas where I can personally improve with regard to tropical forecasting and understanding, but I think having a more granular understanding of the structure of ENSO/how it evolves, and a greater sense of how things like wave breaking and the MJO are forecasted would be valuable. But I work virtually every day. Honestly there are times I wish I could do a wholesale career change and go all in studying tropical meteorology, but I guess I’m where I’m supposed to be..

Meanwhile, every rain shower turns into a named storm in the EPAC.

Nice!

That’s out of my depth. I’m just here for tropical lol.

ACE has been shown to have a connection to winter, so it’d be appropriate here too.

RIP, Mr. Russell

I could be wrong of course, but I just don’t see a 12/5/2 95 ACE season yet. If it were a Nino background, all in. If the MDR were -1.5-2C, all in. But we don’t have that. We have an absurdly stable late July/early Aug environment that can change, albeit slowly in the first 2/3 of August. Idk if I’d go well over average ACE to where CSU is, but probably solidly above given my MH forecast.

Reposting what I originally wrote for the Mid-Atlantic thread. I didn't go into wave breaking like the tread above, but it's obviously pretty important. Also very interesting that SST anomaly plots are so different depending on what site you use. There's a long road between Aug 1 and the end of October, and in the Atlantic especially we can go from quiet to a massive uptick quickly. I don't think anything like 2013 is walking through the door absent seeing continued crap conditions around the end of August, when we're into the ascent to the climatological peak and can see deep into September on ensembles. End of July Tropical Update It's time to turn the page to August, and that means a deep dive into where we are and where we may be going as we approach the start of the climatological peak of the the 2022 Atlantic season. It has been nearly a month since the last named storm in the Atlantic (Colin) and it is immediately apparent why. While the EPAC is HOT, the Atlantic is about as dead as you can get. It has been a banner month in the EPAC, where virtually everything that tried to develop in the basin has developed. The EPAC has seen 5 named storms in the month of July, and 4 have become hurricanes with 2 of those majors. That puts the basin about a month ahead of both hurricane and major climo overall. The background environment has allowed for rising motion that strongly favored convection in the Pacific. Think MJO. It has been steadfast in supporting EPAC activity. The rule of thumb is when one basin is hot, the other is quiet in our part of the world, and that has certainly been the case in the Atlantic where sinking motion, lack of stalled fronts off the SE and Gulf, and monsoon trough along the African coast allowing for SAL in the MDR have suppressed not just activity, but convection itself--the seeds of a TC. It's hard to state just how bad this pattern is for the Atlantic currently. Even though this tends to be the downward peak of dry air in the Atlantic, it is extraordinarily dry. You can see it in the satellite image above, but you really see it with the SAL Analysis. It's nearly impossible to get anything anywhere outside of the Gulf with this environment. The MDR, Caribbean, and even western Atlantic/SE coast are dry. To be clear, it's more complicated than just dry air. Combined with other factors like stability in the region, it's a toxic combo for any wave trying to form. To make matters worse, there is a nasty ribbon of shear that would rip anything apart in the Caribbean (normal this time of year) and anything that tried to develop and move westward in the eastern MDR. It's easy to look at these plots and feel the urge to cancel the rest of the season. How could the Atlantic recover with that kind of dry air and stability in the MDR? How could we see long track hurricanes with shear this high? I strongly urge caution in cutting back forecasts for an above average season. 1. Generally Speaking, a Quiet Atlantic This Time of Year is Climo There's no way to sugarcoat it: the current Atlantic pattern is truly awful for TC genesis. That said, this time of year the pattern usually leaves a lot to be desired. In recent years, very active years by the way, we saw fairly dramatic pauses in Atlantic activity during this time. Although the season starts on June 1, by the time we get to August 1, we still have approximately 90% of tropical activity that is yet to occur. July tropical activity is almost exclusively confined to the homebrew regions of the SE coast, Gulf, and Western Caribbean for a reason--the broader basin is not ready for major activity via African waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean portions of the MDR. That means it's folly to make a prediction on what August and September will look like with regard to ACE and absolute TC numbers based on July activity. Image courtesy of Michael Lowry. 2. Signs are That the Basin Will Gradually Become More Favorable Now, this one is easy. We're headed toward the peak of the season, which broadly runs from August 20-October 20. Usually the switch flips and we go from quiet to very active. The PAC will not continue on this heater, and while we had a false start signal from the models about two weeks ago that highlighted the end of July/early August as the period the switch would flip, it's important to look at the puzzle pieces they try to throw out. First, it's looking like rising motion will become more favorable by mid-month in the Atlantic and favor more vigorous waves off Africa, right in time for the start of CV season in the Eastern Atlantic (image courtesy of Andy Hazelton). This is critical, because we will need moisture to get injected into the basin. second, it looks like shear will begin to decline. This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin. 3. Despite Mixed Environmental Factors, ENSO and SST/OHC Still Rule the Day Finally, ENSO still matters. We are going to see a La Nina/-ENSO state during the peak of the season. This is clear and unambiguous. Normally, -ENSO produces a broadly favorable environment. I will note that @GaWxhas done some excellent work that challenges the premise that a third-year Nina must necessarily be active, but I do think that an active WAM, reduced shear typical of a Nina, and importantly, near normal MDR/cool subtropics and warm western Atlantic will allow for an above average (but not hyperactive) season. Overall I started the season with a 21 named storm/10 hurricane/5 major hurricane forecast, and I don't see much reason to change that right now. I do think we get some activity before the climb toward peak begins on August 20. Overall, I think stability in the MDR will take the longest to overcome, but the other factors I listed above should be able to overcome that. As I've said the last few years as well, I think a relative lack of activity in the Eastern Atlantic can be countered by increased activity in the western Atlantic, where SSTs and OHC are higher than usual. I should note that my usual TCHP charts are inaccessible, but based on what I saw earlier in the month, the depth of ocean warmth is on par with our other recent active seasons, especially in the western Atlantic.