WxWatcher007

Which is why I’m glad I didn’t go with a major EC hit, though I was tempted.

I think it's a fairly easy call for above average overall. For me, the Caribbean and SW Atlantic are the places to be though the Gulf will get theirs. Well this invest survived longer than any of the models expected, but the graveyard got it.

I can see where the numbers come from, but I'm guessing that with an active back half of September that projection will change. I don't see sub 140 ACE, but I also don't think we're rocketing toward hyperactive ACE either. I'd probably lean around 150. Kind of agree on the 3+ H strikes, considering that I think this is an EC, not Gulf favored year. That in it of itself suggests fewer than 3 strikes. With us being where we are and my peak season forecast at 10/6/3, I'm thinking we're probably around 15/7/4 to end the season. All I care about is my peak season forecast though.

I'll also add that these landfalls you mention also highlight just how difficult it is to get an east coast hurricane strike. Much like New England, but obviously to a lesser degree, it takes a statistically unlikely alignment of steering forces to bring a major hurricane to the EC, even with homebrew nearby.

Thanks for the question. I think it's too specific to look at a place like FL vs the Carolina coast. Part of the analysis is pretty basic. The more active a season is the more likely there is a landfall generally, just because more storms equal more opportunities. In my analysis though, it goes a little beyond that. First, look at the thermodynamic environment in the genesis and "final track" (locations that a TC would need to cross to make landfall) areas. In spite of Erin's impressive wake, there is still an enormous amount of untapped potential in the Gulf, Caribbean, and in the southwest Atlantic. Second, I think the ENSO and wet Sahel analysis is compelling. I think the wet Sahel in particular is interesting because track density is consistent with what looks like a hostile tropical Atlantic that suppresses waves until you approach the Antilles and SW Atlantic. I also think that the anomalous troughing that we're seeing now in the east, while certainly a pattern for recurves, would quickly become a pattern for pulling Caribbean or SW Atlantic homebrew systems north if you look at it, especially if that pattern retrogrades as we head deeper into September (where I doubt we produce consecutive negative departure months in the eastern part of the country. I also think climatology plays a role here. @GaWx had a very interesting post looking at east coast landfalls later in the peak season. Storm genesis location matters here, and I am thinking with a slightly less robust wave train from past years, we see vigorous, but weaker waves that can get further west into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic. This could have implications for the eastern Gulf, but I do think troughing will be more of a feature that would lead to earlier turns than the western Caribbean unless something obviously develops there. I do think homebrew is the most likely way the east coast sees a hurricane strike. I actually think it probably means less of a chance, unless there is meaningful activity in the eastern Gulf (which has also been a hot spot of late so that can't be ruled out).

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (1) Hurricanes: 6 (0) Major Hurricanes: 3 (0) Fernand

A month from now I think we’ll be cooking in a big way. This is another heavy backloaded season imo. Hard to beat the stability and SAL issues that have been persistent across the tropical Atlantic this decade.

Dead. Will be for foreseeable. Embrace it.

We welcome September with open arms.

Recon shows it as a sharp wave at best. No reason to bet on this one if/until it survives the graveyard.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms have increased and are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands late on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean on Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less favorable for additional development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

It’s looking pretty good to be honest with convection continuing to fire and clear spin. It’s a robust disturbance.

Pretty nicely organized LLC per recon.

I did not have that happen to me. That must’ve been quite an experience.

I just remember my cup of water shaking like it was Jurassic Park.

It’ll be a nice and warm fall and I’m sure we’ll have some hot days in there, but we’ve stepped down. It’s undeniable.

That’s a really good point. As I saw it the two big killers right now would have been vorticity stretching and the drier air/SAL. So far 99L has held on. Would’ve been much harder to do if it wasn’t so organized. Now that’s interesting. GEFS have very little, if any, signal.

We march toward fall.

TS likely per NHC. Euro really struggled with its TC genesis signal here (and 99L surviving this long). Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images and Air Force Reserve aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that an area of low pressure about 400 miles south- southeast of Bermuda continues to get better-defined, and recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the low pressure area has gale-force winds east of the center. This system is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon or evening, with further intensification likely through Sunday while the low moves northward at 10 to 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, though the threat to that island appears to be less than yesterday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

I think we have enough for a TD. If not now, at 5pm. Recon still sampling.

Recon is in there now so we should know soon how close it is, or not.

Still holding together as best it can in a very hostile environment

I’m not sure if it can get into the Caribbean as a coherent system, but if it can survive vorticity stretching over the next few days maybe it has a chance. This looks trickier than models suggest. If it survives.