WxWatcher007

This is awesome, thanks.

Where can I get this map?

My kind of day—no morning debris lol

Wiz just fell to his knees in a McDonald’s

Yeah it’s doable, but it’s hard stuff. Terrain and chase infrastructure are horrible. It’s more risky to chase out here than the Midwest. More open spaces like NY can be good though if you’re in the right spot.

I think this is it. Too far north and you’re dealing with cooler SSTs and inherently more stable/dry air due to proximity to the Sahara and subtropics. IMO there were robust waves coming off too far north that reinforced SAL during the climatological peak for SAL, and stability even as SAL declined. The further south waves fared much better, especially after SAL pushes weren’t as potent in the tropical Atlantic. I think that can be much less pronounced this season during peak, but I don’t know.

Can already hear thunder

Some opening thoughts.

Just going to make some blanket comments here. It's indisputable that there are numerous factors that determine whether a season is active or not. SSTs and OHC are just one piece of the puzzle and I think @cptcatz is right that they're often leaned on too much, but they are still a significant piece. SSTs should warm up some, as mentioned by the discussion earlier. That's not really where my caution flag lies. For me it's not just the tropical Atlantic SSTs that are important, the subtropics as well. This distribution has me concerned that the stability issues we've seen this decade will persist into the 2025 season. Now, that hasn't proven to stop the exceptional stretch of activity we've seen since 2017, but it's something to pay attention to considering possibly less ideal atmospheric conditions this season with the lack of a full blown Nina. We only need to look at last season and the historic lid that was placed on the entire basin due to SAL and systemic stability reinforced by an active AEW train as an extreme example of what can happen. Is there anyone willing to say right now that 60W to 20W won't have at least some problems with SAL and stability? There are still open questions about the WAM, how much the Pacific cools, and the actual ENSO that controls this summer/fall. I don't think it's unreasonable at all to throw up caution flags, even while leaning toward another above normal season. I don't think that's "mainstream" or whatever, it's looking at the evidence right in front of us. @jconsor, agree that the S&P forecast is interesting, though I am still skeptical of those kind of LR forecasts and their skill. Doesn't mean the science isn't being pushed forward though, which would be awesome to see. I do agree that we probably have a higher than normal likelihood for an active landfall season, but I'm not willing to paint landfall zones because idk if the skill is truly there outside of a month at most. @GaWx, I don't think we need SSTs to approach the last two years for a higher end NS season, but I do think we need an expansive region of high OHC for this year to produce higher end H and MH numbers. That's there, though not nearly to the extent of the prior two years.

May has arrived and preseason is here! That means it's time for the legacy thread. The Atlantic has been exceptionally busy since 2017, but it has thrown several curveballs over that period that has led to unexpected outcomes in the basin. Last year, after the earliest category 5 hurricane on record, we saw a historically quiet start to the climatological peak of the season, followed by a historically active back loaded season. This year, we do not have the same warmth and depth across the basin as 2024, but with a neutral to cool neutral ENSO likely--which would facilitate periods of low wind shear, a cooling Pacific, and still warm SSTs in the western Atlantic, another average to above average season is likely IMO. However, a major thing to watch is the cooler SST distribution in the tropical Atlantic which may not only temper the ceiling in that part of the basin, but also potentially continue the dramatic stability issues we've seen this decade. Last year, I was in Texas for Beryl, Louisiana for Francine, and Florida for Helene. The Gulf has been ground zero since 2017. We'll see if that continues this year. Beryl was the first storm where I had my window blown in Francine nudged east at the last minute and I missed the worst. Still a solid storm. Helene was the real deal. With 2024 in the books, I've now completed 16 tropical chases.

Fall Summer Spring Winter A great winter can move up, but fall is tremendous no matter the year and summer is hard to beat because of the daylight.

You are something else.

Those icons are

Hopefully some action that’s close enough to chase this season. Already starting to think about another Midwest trip next year.

@Damage In Tolland I think you’re going to be right here in the valley. We’re already leafing out this week.

It’s pretty incredible how our regional location contributes to the ecological and climatological conditions to mitigate widespread extreme weather.

I have to imagine that we do eventually. Those seasons that we cut our teeth in during the late 90s are much closer to normal overall than what we see now. The expanse of ++SST probably goes a long way to these late seasons. Sorry you disagree I also lean cool neutral, which is plenty in its own right to keep shear at bay and lead to an AN season. These are a bit dated, but you can see the impact of a weak Nino (unlikely here) with even warm neutral. I don’t have the Nina/cool neutral graphics but you can see how much the impact ENSO has. My main “concern” for the season isn’t ENSO or shear though. We’re used to a boiling MDR but we do not have that heading into “preseason”. IMO, the SSTa in the tropical Atlantic lends itself to reinforcing the enormous stability issues we’ve had this decade. How expansive this becomes is TBD, and as we’ve seen, it hasn’t made any recent seasons BN. But I do think it’s something to monitor.

I am legitimately overjoyed to be on the cusp of extended warmth and sun.

Yeah, the midseason shutoff was historic, and the late season explosion was historic. I don't think anyone called for the shutoff, but I did believe that once the lid came off the basin last year, that things would go into November. I look at it a little differently given the parade of really strong waves in the eastern Atlantic--had we not had stability issues basin wide the combination of exceptional SST/OHC and ENSO driven low shear would've led to a historic season. I think the risk this upcoming season is far more weighted toward an underperforming season than overperforming one. Totally agree with you on the Allison example. I do think though that some of these short fuse tropical systems should be named when the data says it. Minimal TS by their very nature are often ugly pieces of crap--that doesn't change that they're tropical. If a swirl would get named close to land, it should get named in the open Atlantic. Otherwise this becomes too subjective imo.

Beautiful! Spring is here! Being off the devices and outside is good for the soul. I’ve been more or less off the site for months and I’ve loved it. Kinda wish I knew what happened though.

Another F here, but we’re on to spring. Great graphics as always. I know that’s a lot of work.

Thank God. High of 86.6°. Totally fine with this being a one day shot across the bow. Climo norms are rising quickly and this can be a fantastic time of year before the heat arrives in force. Fortunately for ya it’s a one day hit. Anomalous stuff…just like waking up to measurable snow imby a week ago with a high of 39.1°. Out of place but plenty possible. I love the variety.

Tropical?

I think we’ll get a few CV storms—but I think most of the action is in the western Atlantic & Gulf. As for numbers, if I had to guess right now I’d probably go 18/10/4. If I had to range it it’d be 17-20 NS/8-11 H/ 3-5 MH