WxWatcher007

And not just the overall categorical risk. The 5% tor and wind has been pulled east as well.

Yep, totally agree. This will take some time if there’s going to be a true effort at TC genesis. The overall track and time over the Gulf is all important here IMO.

Might be some flood risk if those storms train in CT.

I love those offers

That would be the way to make it happen.

We started talking Monday about the potential for homebrew this weekend and now we have a seedling off the west coast of Florida. The visible satellite shows what looks like a mid-level circulation with a complex of thunderstorms. This area is related to a stalled frontal boundary, which is a climatologically favored way for homebrew development this time of year. The environment is marginal, but in my estimation more favorable than what we saw with our first and only TC of the season so far, Arthur. The area its expected to traverse is one of the warmer spots in the Gulf relative to normal. Looking at Euro and GFS analysis, while there is modest dry air lurking, moisture seems to be present enough to allow for convection to fire should this want to organize. A true limiting factor eventually may be the presence of shear to the north, but at the moment that is not hindering today's convection. The biggest factor IMO on whether this is able to develop, is how much time it has over water. This area is in a location trapped between a ridge in the Gulf and a ridge in the western Atlantic, which should allow it to meander for now. However, as a trough swings in, that will open a path for this to get shunted north/NNE. If that happens, development will be unlikely. The GFS, which has been far less bullish on TC genesis chances from the very beginning, shows this well. However, if that trough is not able to turn this area quickly, it could get trapped under a building ridge in the wake of the trough, pushing this further west and keeping the window for development open long enough for genesis to occur. The Euro AI has been most bullish on this scenario. The ensembles have waffled back and forth, but this season I've been putting more stock into the AI ensembles and GDM (Google DeepMind). You'll see a modest signal below from both the Euro AI and GDM, and the further west the low tracks the better the chance for development. So today it's worth watching how this area off the FL coast tries to fire persistent convection, and if it can organize as a result. This weekend the trends on track will be crucial to whether we see homebrew development or not.

Not the worst look on visible, but for TC genesis it's going to need to be able to fire more persistent convection.

Just have to stay offshore. Needs to get suppressed in the Gulf rather than dragged back into FL like some models try. Also--just looked at the 12z NAM for tomorrow. Active day ahead?

Yeah time is probably going to be one of the biggest factors here. If it can remain over the Gulf and head west, rather than getting caught up quickly and turned into FL, it should have a window for genesis.

Got a little area of convection off the FL coast. Could become the seedling for our weekend low.

After dropping the signal briefly, AI ensembles in particular are a little more bullish on some development.

38 at SLK and 48.8 at WXW2.

We smoke. Brutal out there this evening.

Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today.

Yeah not sure there’s going to be enough time for TC genesis, but nothing set in stone yet.

Death band of FU+

Just wake up, take a deep breath, and admire near zero visibility reaching your kitchen?

Have you seen the video? It’s wild.

2-2.75” hail reported in northern NY.

Destructive tag on that supercell now.

Ha that little cell is producing 2” hail and gusts to 70 per the warning.

Solid little cell working its way into northern NY. We’ll see if it holds given the crapvection ahead of it.

I don’t think they have the votes in the Senate. The House is just being dumb because they can’t pass anything important. This may be something the Senate never even takes up if for no other reason than lack of time on the legislative calendar. Enjoy