WxWatcher007

Just want to continue to highlight that even if Erin isn't a direct threat to the US, it is potentially a threat to Atlantic Canada, specifically Newfoundland, with models showing misses, close approaches, and more direct impacts in various model runs.

No, there's just not enough time for that kind of organization to occur imo. This is probably making landfall tomorrow afternoon which would suggest ~45kt intensification in 24 hours. That would require exceptionally fast organization just to allow for the kind of pressure falls necessary to bring winds up to 64kt. A "lower end" TS would be more likely.

New invest in the Gulf, with time as a limiting factor.

Although it's convectively active, it doesn't look particularly organized and time is a huge limiting factor. It's a low shear environment and the BoC so we'll see if that helps organize this faster into a TC. We'll know more should recon fly today at 18z.

I’d go even lower, but I guess I’d just preach caution until recon has had a chance to sample Erin and the surrounding environment before feeling too confident in the exact details of the recurve.

Don’t worry the trough will be there whenever tropical reaches the SW Atlantic.

Nothing really new from the NHC. The real interest will come with the 00z suite and whether this westward adjustment due to a less aggressive Canadian trough and rebuilding Atlantic ridge continues.

Among the consensus models, it has been quite a trend

I did! .03”

As the NHC noted at 5pm, there is a lot of spread in the longer range. Note that even though these are relatively close to the coast, the overwhelming majority of members completely miss the east coast. The risk doesn't lie in if the current "forecast" holds, it lies in if there is a trend toward weakening the Canadian troughing and restrengthening the Atlantic ridge.

.01" at home

Still think there’s a very long way to go before thinking this is a bona fide US threat with a lot that needs to change but you can see the current changes looking at the last four EPS runs in the steering pattern. I don’t think today’s runs are enough to say there’s a trend. If 00z is similar, then maybe.

Long shot but yeah, still worth watching. The UL pattern over Canada is critical to how close this gets. Note how much less aggressive the trough is in SE Canada. That has a ripple effect across the steering pattern players. 00z 12z

Well, it's still an outlier. For a closer approach you absolutely need the big ULL in Canada to back off. I don't think that's impossible. The cutoff in the GL region is a whole different level of complexity however imo. This still looks like a very very low chance for us, with meaningful risk in NF. I guess it's still worth a casual eye lol. Yeah...I'm not sure how that'll play out over time.

I can’t. I just can’t.

I'm just chewing on that run. I want to see some ensemble support. That said, you can see how quickly things go from well OTS (Newfoundland exception) to a very close approach with changes in the pattern over the US and Canada. The big ULL doesn't drop down as aggressively, the retrograding ridge over the US kind of meanders, and that allows the Atlantic ridge to push the door a little more. 00z 12z Now of course, because there's no cutoff in the GL region this eventually gets kicked, but that was modestly intriguing. SHIPS does foresee a better environment further west, and the organization of Erin is pretty good for its current intensity. I think it could really pop once it's able to get enough of a convective burst to get the engine going. That said, convection continues to fire on the southern side of the storm and the track continues to come in ever so slightly south of forecast. I still think a NE impact is fantasy land, but the door for a closer approach is not fully closed. Honestly, and this is also forever out, Erin could be good for a PRE somewhere depending on how that trough eventually evolves. Just food for thought. Also, this looks like a possible threat to Newfoundland. Been saying that for days now lol.

Newfoundland in particular. They’ve been getting either glancing blows or direct hits sporadically on the op Euro and GFS.

91.1 at home along with dews…

Never count out the BoC

It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point.

Haha that line was 100% frustration from looking at my seasonal snow total this morning. It is regression and I do agree that in general winter produces most here looking at the longer arc of time. Doesn’t change the pain of losing nearly a decade to some historically bad winters. That’s time you don’t get back.

I know that’s true…but my production the last decade makes it harder than ever to discern. I checked this morning and I have more sub 20” seasons than I do 30” seasons since 2018-19, and my average is 45-50”. I certainly have more failed epic winter patterns than failed fantasy canes. It’s exceptionally tough sledding for anything interesting lately. Tropical stuff aside I think most of us are frustrated by that. I have my annual peak season forecast due by the 20th, and I’m still not sure what direction I’ll take. I do think we’re looking at another backloaded season though given the continued SAL/stability issues I knew we’d have months ago. If September is warm with a WAR, we’re in the game. Otherwise, cutoff trough season in October and hybrids are probably our only shot at anything interesting.

Solar is awesome. Barely a bill year round.

Foggy start here in the valley

Why pick a thread when there’s a whole page