WxWatcher007

Somebody mentioned Joaquin the other page and man, this might be worse. I don’t think there’s anyone that even has a clue of what this will do.

It would be an all time win for the second tier models.

This is truly remarkable uncertainty on the guidance given how close we could be to a landfall. The GFS follows what some ensemble camps have hinted at, but the outcome verbatim is just radically different in impacts and timing compared to recent op runs. This is a very tough system for emergency managers that need to prepare people to take action.

With Humberto rapidly intensifying today, another MH is on the board. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (3) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH)

Taking a look at our coming PTC. Thanks to @Nibor for showing me how to post larger gif animations. You can clearly see both the gradual organization and headwinds for the coming PTC 9. To the north, you can see arc clouds still radiating out of the area, indicating the presence of some dry air. You can also see some of the thunderstorm tops being sheared, although it does look like in recent frames that things may have slackened some. It's easier to see the larger scale spin, and recon is on the way to examine how well defined a low level center there is. For a relatively short term forecast, there is still a lot to be figured out.

It looks like the ensemble members on balance don’t have that coastal stall. The slower members stay OTS

Don’t look at the specifics. I’m just highlighting the threat of widespread high end rainfall. That signal has been there consistently, even though the axis of heaviest rain has bounced around.

Note how the ridge above slams the door shut for an escape, even though Humberto is able to initially exert some influence. It leads to a prolific rain event...

Closer to the coast than 00z, but a departure from the clear landfall at 06z. Humberto is pulling away as the ridge rolls over the top so the escape route probably closes. Still a lot to figure out with not a lot of time.

Keep this up and it might outdo winter storm posts.

PTC likely later today Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located over the subtropical central Atlantic, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical cyclone Gabrielle over the northeastern Atlantic. Southwestern Atlantic (AL94): Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a low pressure system appears to be forming near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Gradual development of this system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves northwestward or northward across the central and northwestern Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and are likely to spread across the remainder of the Bahamas over the weekend. Interests in all of these areas should monitor the progress of the system. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the Bahamas and advisories on a potential tropical cyclone could be issued as early as later today. While there remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart/Hagen

How did you get a larger gif to post?

The Canadian keeps future Imelda offshore, but the massive ridge over the top blocks its escape and runs it up the coast. Funky.

The Canadian, as usual, is funky.

Not to mention the onshore flow. A further south track with that flow over Charleston would be very bad. The Low Country is called that for a reason (I used to live in SC).

Exciting times in New England.

You can see pretty easily why the establishment of an inner core matters here. On the 06z GFS run, the core is weaker and less structurally sound, and as a result it’s easier for dry air to get entrained. The result is a slowly intensifying storm (take note) on landfall. 12z has a symmetrical core, which not only makes it stronger but closes off the eye from dry air entrainment. The result is a substantially stronger hurricane that is likely intensifying more robustly on landfall. I can’t emphasize enough how important it’ll be to get a well defined LLC so that the models can figure this out. I think an east coast strike is highly likely at this point given the GFS/Euro and their ensembles overwhelmingly overlapping in the general upper level steering features.

Meanwhile, Humberto is likely a major already. It just exploded in intensity.

When looking at recon earlier I didn't think that we had anything closed, but perhaps that's a function of the possible LLC being so close to the coast that recon can't get there. Looking at some of the surface observations, I guess you can close this off. I suppose the northerly wind on the south Cuban coast implies some sort of LLC. I just think it's marginal at best for now.

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 26 2025 Humberto continues to rapidly strengthen this morning. Infrared satellite images show a ring of deep, cold inner core convection wrapping around an eye that has recently emerged in conventional satellite imagery. Objective satellite intensity estimates are quickly climbing, and the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS ADT and AiDT estimates. A recent ASCAT-B pass over the hurricane was used to update the 34- and 50-kt wind radii of Humberto. The rapidly improving satellite structure, along with conducive environmental and oceanic conditions, suggest that significant to rapid intensification (RI) is likely to continue in the short term. In fact, the latest DTOPS guidance shows a greater than 80 percent chance of Humberto strengthening by 30 kt in the next 24 h. Thus, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast here, and the NHC intensity forecast has been raised during the first 48-72 h of the forecast period. This forecast most closely follows the regional hurricane models and the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA), on the higher end of the guidance envelope. By early next week, there are indications that deep-layer shear will increase over Humberto, and some weakening is shown beyond 72 h. Note that as Humberto gains latitude, the wind field is forecast to expand while the hurricane curves around Bermuda at days 4-5. The hurricane is moving slowly northwestward at about 4 kt. Humberto should move toward the west-northwest and northwest during the next couple of days along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the western and central Atlantic. As this ridge slides eastward, the hurricane is forecast to recurve around this feature, turning northward and then accelerating northeastward early next week. The models are in very good agreement on this sharp recurvature over the western Atlantic, and only minor adjustments were made to the latest NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 22.3N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 22.5N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 23.3N 61.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 25.3N 65.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 26.8N 66.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 30.6N 68.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 66.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Looks like RI is well underway.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi There are other sites out there but I use these when recon is in the air. Expect consistent upper air and low level recon now.

Low level recon is in there for the first time this morning. Not seeing anything closed right now.